Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, August 10

The Boston Red Sox (64-53) and the Toronto Blue Jays (56-63) reunite in an AL East rivalry on Monday, August 10. Game 1 of the four-contest series is slated for 7:07 p.m. ET, with PrizePicks Team Picks giving Boston a 1.61x payout to win tonight.

The Red Sox finally looked human over the weekend, losing their first series since July 1 in a 2-1 result vs. the Athletics. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won four straight series and carry a 6-4 record in the last 10 games.

Below, we’ll look at our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks on PrizePicks now!

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 10

As mentioned, Toronto has won four straight series. Its last series defeat was against the Red Sox between July 24 and July 26. 

However, the Blue Jays lead the season series with a 6-3 record against Boston. That features a 5-1 record over two three-game series in April and June. 

The Red Sox are an entirely different team over the last month, though. In fact, they sport an absurd 32-7 record since June 25, including a 17-5 stretch since the All-Star break. 

This club has produced at a truly historic pace, including a franchise-tying record 15-game win streak in July. Plus, the Sox became the 10th team since 1900 to compile a 27-3 record or better over a 30-game span, and their .546 BABIP during a 30-day stretch was the best recorded in MLB history.

Toronto had this team’s number early in the season, but Boston is a different beast for the fourth series between these rivals this season.

For Game 1, Red Sox SP Sonny Gray (14-2, 3.59 xFIP in 119.2 IP) and Blue Jays SP Jameson Taillon (2-6, 4.75 xFIP in 80.0 IP) will collide on the bump. Who could have the upper hand on Monday night? 

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 10

The Red Sox are favored for the seventh consecutive game, with a 1.61x payout if they win tonight. PrizePicks Team Picks also gives tonight’s matchup an 8.5 run total. 

Check out the spread, over/under, and game winner payouts for tonight’s Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup on Monday, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Make your Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction on Over/Under – 8/10/26

Here’s what you need to know for your Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction on the run total for PrizePicks.

• Considering Boston’s recent tear, that’s meant plenty of run production with 7.4 runs per game over the last 10 matchups. 
• Toronto has logged only 3.9 runs per game in its last 10 games, slightly dropping from 3.94 per game on the season (29th). 
• The over/under may boil down to the Blue Jays’ success at the plate, and Red Sox SP Sonny Gray holds a 2.78 ERA, 3.69 xERA, and 3.83 SIERA, per FanGraphs.
• Despite allowing 5 earned runs on July 25 and 4 earned runs on July 30, Gray still features a 3.00 ERA over his last six starts, holding teams to 1 earned run or less in four of those appearances.
• According to Baseball Savant, Gray’s most-used pitches are a sinker (20.5%), sweeper (20.3%), and cutter (19.3%). Toronto ranks 26th, 27th, and 30th in runs above average against those pitches.
• Boston’s bullpen also boasts a 2.59 xERA over the last 30 days (the lowest), meaning the Blue Jays could be in store for another uninspiring day at the plate.

Lock in your Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks Today

Here are the top Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks to target on PrizePicks on Monday, August 10. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray.

Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras vs. Blue Jays: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• After recording an elite .323/.488/.629 slash line in July, Willson Contreras touts a .235/.350/.235 slash line over five games in August.
• He’s yet to record an extra-base hit this month, contributing to his 6.0 hitter fantasy score per game over the last five contests.
• Despite the fall in productivity, it’s still been enough for eclipsing this projection in three of his last four outings. 
• Furthermore, Blue Jays SP Jameson Taillon carries a 6.07 xERA (third percentile), a .264 xBA (21st percentile), a 15.2% barrel rate (first percentile), and a 39.9% hard-hit rate allowed (39th percentile). 
• Taillon ceded at least 3 earned runs in three straight starts, holding a 10.22 ERA in the split. 
• His struggles against sluggers, including an alarming 2.93 HR/9, could be just what the doctor ordered for Contreras—who sports a .509 xSLG (93rd percentile) and 14.4% barrel rate (92nd percentile).

Add Willson Contreras to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Red Sox SP Sonny Gray vs. Blue Jays: 4.5 Strikeouts

• Sonny Gray holds a 21.9% strikeout rate (43rd percentile), but his chance to stack Ks is elevated by 5.7 innings pitched per start.
• He’s reached 5 strikeouts in six of his last eight outings, totaling 6.4 Ks per start in the split. 
• The Blue Jays are a tough cookie to crack with a 19.7 K% (third-lowest), but they recorded 14.0 strikeouts per game over the last two contests—which far exceeds their 7.34 per-game average (third-fewest).
• Despite a low strikeout percentage on the season, Toronto swings at 36.0% of pitches outside the strike zone (third-highest). Gray leans on his 33.3% chase rate (77th percentile), while his 23.2% whiff rate is in just the 33rd percentile.
• Gray’s sweeper carries a monster 47.8% strikeout rate, and the Jays have the fourth-fewest runs above average against the pitch over the last 30 days.

Add Sonny Gray to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Picks on PrizePicks

After losing their first series since July 1, will the Red Sox bounce back in the first of four games against the Blue Jays? Toronto is looking to enact revenge, as its last series loss was against Boston in late July.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.