The Boston Red Sox (1-1) will be looking for a series win to open the season when they take on the Cincinnati Reds (1-1) in the series finale on Sunday, March 29, with the first pitch set for 1:40 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Red Sox took the opener on Friday night, but the Reds took Saturday’s game in thrilling walk-off fashion after 11 innings. Red Sox SP Connelly Early (2.35 xFIP in 2025) and Reds SP Rhett Lowder (4.73 xFIP in 2024) are slated to start on the mound for today’s rubber match.
Below, we’ll break down our Red Sox vs. Reds prediction and picks for Sunday’s game. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Red Sox vs. Reds Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
After being shut out 3-0 in Friday’s opener, the Reds got off to a great start on Saturday. They led 3-0 after the second frame and 4-1 heading into the fourth.
Red Sox SP Sonny Gray got roughed up in the fourth, but the Cincinnati bullpen wasn’t able to hold onto the lead, as CL Emilio Pagan blew a save in the ninth. The Reds won the game in the 11th on a pinch-hit single by OF Dane Myers.
Both bullpens got plenty of work on Saturday, with each team utilizing five relievers. They’ll each be hoping for longer stints from their starters today, but the pens might be involved early again.
Reds SP Rhett Lowder didn’t pitch in the majors last season as he battled injuries all season, and he was inconsistent in spring training. He doesn’t rack up many strikeouts and allows a lot of hard contact, proven by being on pace for the 10th percentile of barrel rate allowed in 2024, per Baseball Savant.
Red Sox SP Connelly Early will be facing a platoon disadvantage, with the Reds likely having eight hitters batting from the right side. In four starts last season, he allowed a .260 wOBA vs. right-handed hitters compared to .185 against lefties, via FanGraphs.
Strikeouts have been heavy so far in the series. The Red Sox were set down on pitches 15 times on Saturday and 22 overall, while the Reds whiffed 12 times in each game.
If this does become a bullpen game, the Red Sox could be content. Their pen has allowed just 2 earned runs through 9.1 IP while striking out 11 batters. On the flip side, they’ve scored 5 runs on the Reds pen in 10.0 IP.
Reds 2B Matt McLain could be the difference for Cincinnati. He reached base five times in six appearances on Saturday, picking up where he left off after posting a disgusting .509/.559/.981 split in spring training. He hit 4 home runs in just 25 ABs vs. LHP, potentially giving the Red Sox and Early a sleepless Saturday night.
Red Sox vs. Reds Spread, Over/Under
The Red Sox enter Sunday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.69x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Reds are home underdogs with a 2.17x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (2.12x payout)
Over/Under: 8.5 (1.96x payout on over)
Game Winner Payout: Red Sox 1.69x | Reds 2.17x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Reds Prediction on Over/Under – 3/29/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Red Sox vs. Reds prediction on the over/under for Sunday, March 29, on PrizePicks.
- The Reds averaged 4.54 runs per game at Great American Ball Park in 2025, compared to 4.31 runs per game on the road.
- The Red Sox ranked seventh in MLB last season in road scoring, averaging 4.73 runs per game away from Fenway Park.
- According to FanGraphs, Lowder’s 4.73 xFIP and 4.38 xERA in 2024 were more than 3 runs above his 1.17 ERA.
- Lowder’s fastball velocity before his 2025 injuries ranked in the 33rd percentile of all MLB pitchers.
- Right-handed batters hit .313 off Lowder in spring training, as he notched a 1.91 WHIP over 7.1 IP.
- Early posted a .150 BAA against same-sided hitters in 2025, but opposite-side matchups saw him allow a .259 average.
- Two of Early’s four regular-season starts last year came vs. the A’s, with 18 of his 29 strikeouts picked up in those two outings.
- His other two starts saw him allow 7 hits and 4 earned runs in 9 IP before he got roughed up in his only postseason outing.
- Per Baseball Savant, Early posted a below-average hard-hit rate and became much more reliant on his four-seam FB against righties.
- The Reds bullpen ranked 24th in 2025 in xFIP, 21st in xERA, and 25th in walk rate.
Red Sox vs. Reds Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/29/26
Here are two of the top Red Sox vs. Reds picks to consider for Sunday, March 29, on PrizePicks. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Reds 2B Matt McLain and Red Sox OF Roman Anthony.
Reds 2B Matt McLain vs. Red Sox Projection: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- McLain struck out just 7 times in 59 plate appearances in spring training, while walking 6 times.
- He slugged .981 in the spring, with 7 home runs and 16 RBI in 59 plate appearances.
- Despite struggling at the plate in 2025, McLain ranked in the 86th percentile in baserunning run value, per Baseball Savant, as he scored 73 runs and stole 18 bases.
- The Reds 2B is off to a hot start, posting a 16.7% barrel rate and a 92.5 mph average exit velocity through his first two games.
- He’s seeing the ball well vs. the Red Sox, posting a 30% walk rate and an xBA of .373 in the series.
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Red Sox OF Roman Anthony vs. Reds Projection: 0.5 Singles
- Roman Anthony is enjoying Great American Ball Park, with 4 hits in 9 ABs over the first two games.
- He’s smashing the ball hard in this series after showing off his power in the World Baseball Classic, with a 103.8 average exit velocity in the first two games.
- Anthony posted just a 6.9 average launch angle last season, and it’s been -2.3 so far this year, per Baseball Savant, which has led to all four of his hits being singles.
- In the 2024 campaign, Lowder ranked in the 20th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, whiff rate, chase rate, and strikeout rate.
Make Red Sox vs. Reds Picks on PrizePicks
After reaching the playoffs last year, both the Red Sox and the Reds want to open their seasons with a series victory. With each team in a competitive division, getting off to a strong start is vital. The Reds will be hopeful their pitching can step up against a dangerous Red Sox offense.
You can make your Red Sox vs. Reds picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
