Real Madrid hosts Getafe at the Bernabéu for La Liga’s final Matchweek 26 contest, a derby between two of the four teams based in Madrid in the Spanish top flight.
Los Blancos aim to inch closer to Barcelona, who sit four points clear atop the table after a 4-1 victory over Villarreal this past weekend. The two Spanish sides face off for the second and final time this season on Monday, March 2 at 3:00 p.m. ET on ESPN Deportes.
Can Real Madrid make it nine straight victories over Getafe, or can Los Azulones spoil a late-season title push?
Below, we’ll break down our Real Madrid vs. Getafe La Liga predictions and picks for Monday afternoon’s derby. Make your La Liga picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on players, goal totals, and more!
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Real Madrid vs. Getafe Prediction, Picks for Monday, March 2
Real Madrid look to return to their winning ways in La Liga after suffering a heart-crushing 2-1 loss to Osasuna in matchweek 25. A 90th-minute winner handed Los Blancos a 2-1 defeat on the road after entering the week atop La Liga’s table.
Likewise, Getafe tries to return to the win column after a 1-0 loss to Sevilla ended a two-game win streak for Jose Bordalas’ squad. Bordalas is without defensive midfielder Djene for this match after he was shown a red card in the loss.
Getafe will also face a much different team than they had the first time around due to Real Madrid’s injuries. Most notably, Kylian Mbappe, who scored the lone goal in Real Madrid’s 1-0 victory over Getafe, is set to miss his second straight game with a knee injury.
Alvaro Arbeloa is also without defenders Eder Militao, Raul Asencio, and Dean Huijsen, as well as the midfield pairing of Jude Bellingham and Dani Ceballos. Getafe's depth is bolstered by the return of forward Rodrygo, who has not played since February 1.
Real Madrid vs. Getafe Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Real Madrid enters Monday’s matchup as sizable home favorites, returning a 1.29x payout ($100 entry pays out $129) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Getafe are underdogs, returning an 8.33x payout ($100 entry pays out $833) if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Winner Payout: Real Madrid 1.29x | Tie 4.54x | Getafe 8.33x
- Spread: Real Madrid -1.5 (1.96x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.88x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.32x | No 1.53x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Real Madrid vs. Getafe Prediction on Winner
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Real Madrid vs. Getafe prediction on total goals for Monday, March 2, on PrizePicks.
- Getafe's failed to score in four straight matches vs. Real Madrid, last scoring against Los Blancos in September of 2023.
- Real Madrid has dominated Getafe at home, owning a 19-1-1 record dating back to 2004.
- Los Blancos have suffered just one loss at home in La Liga, with a 29:8 goal differential in 12 matches. Getafe has six losses on the road, conceding 18 goals in 12 away games.
- Getafe averages under one goal per game (0.8) with just 1.2 big chances created per contest. On the flip side, they have just six clean sheets in 25 games played.
- Getafe has held Real Madrid under 3 goals in every fixture since 2020. Real Madrid has scored just 1 goal in each of their last two matchups.
- Real Madrid averages 59% possession per game in La Liga this season, leading to 3.6 big chances created and 2.2 goals per game. Only Barcelona averages more in each of these categories.
- Since the start of the 2024-25 season, Real Madrid has played just six games without Mbappe in La Liga, winning four (once vs. Getafe) and drawing two.
Real Madrid vs. Getafe Projected Lineups
Take a look at the Real Madrid vs. Getafe projected lineups for today's La Liga match. Lineups are not official.
Real Madrid Lineup vs. Getafe: Projected 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
- Defense: Daniel Carvajal, Antonio Rüdiger, David Alaba, Álvaro Carreras
- Midfield: Federico Valverde, Arda Guler, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga
- Forwards: Gonzalo Garcia, Vinicius Junior
Getafe Lineup vs. Real Madrid: Projected 3-4-1-2
- Goalkeeper: David Soria
- Defense: Abdelkabir Abqar, Zaid Romero, Domingos Duarte
- Midfield: Juan Iglesias, Mauro Arambarri, Luis Milla, Kiko Femenia, Mario Martín
- Forwards: Martin Satriano, Luis Vazquez
Real Madrid vs. Getafe Picks for La Liga: Monday, March 2
Here are three top Real Madrid vs. Getafe picks to target on players for Monday, March 2, for PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Vinicius Junior, Arda Guler, and David Soria.
Real Madrid F Vinicius Junior vs. Getafe
Vinicius Junior Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Goals + (Goblin), 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 5.5 Attempted Dribbles
- Vinicius Junior has scored six goals in his last five games across all competitions, his best scoring streak with Real Madrid.
- Vini has 2 goals and 1 assist in six La Liga games that Mbappe has missed. He has a total of 12 shots, with five of those on target.
- The Brazilian attacker averages 5.25 attempted dribbles per match in La Liga this season. That number shoots up to over 6 (6.17) dribbles attempted per game in the six fixtures Mbappe has missed.
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Real Madrid MF Arda Guler vs. Getafe
Arda Guler Projections via PrizePicks: 2.5 Shots (Demon), 0.5 Goals + Assists (Demon), 0.5 Fouls (Goblin)
- Guler is tied with Federico Valverde for the most assists (7) for Real Madrid in La Liga this season. He has the highest expected assists (xA) on the squad with 5.75.
- The Turkish midfielder has the third-highest goals and assists tally (10) on the squad, only behind Mbappe and Junior.
- Guler has the most big chances created (12) for Real Madrid and the second-most in La Liga.
- The 21-year-old averages just 1.6 shots per game in La Liga. That number slightly jumps to 1.75 in games he has started in.
- Guler has committed at least one foul in just one of the last five La Liga games he has started in.
Getafe GK David Soria vs. Real Madrid
David Soria Projections via PrizePicks: 30.5 Passes Attempted, 1.5 Goals Allowed (Goblin), 2.5 Goalie Saves (Goblin)
- Soria made 9 saves the last time these teams met. Real Madrid finished the contest with 2.3 expected goals (xG) but only actually scored 1.
- Real Madrid averages nearly 20 (19.5) shots per match at home. An average of 7.58 of those shots have ended up on target.
- Soria has 66 saves in 16 appearances against Real Madrid in his career. Getafe has failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 straight games with Soria in goal.
- The Getafe goalkeeper averages 30.04 passes per match in La Liga. He attempted 33 the first time these teams met earlier this season.
- Soria has allowed just 1 goal in back-to-back fixtures versus Real Madrid.
Make Real Madrid vs. Getafe Picks on PrizePicks
A shorthanded Real Madrid squad aims to bolster their title odds when they host Getafe on Monday. Getafe will hope the absence of Mbappe can potentially help them find a result in this Madrid derby.
You can make your Real Madrid vs. Getafe picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots and passes, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
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