Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, September 23

The Tampa Bay Rays (96-61) and New York Yankees (90-67) play the third contest of their four-game series at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 23. 

The Rays won the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader against the Yankees, not only securing their fifth AL East title but also clinching the top seed in the American League. 

Tampa Bay still has a shot at finishing with the best overall record in MLB to ensure home-field advantage in the World Series. The Yankees have less to play for, as they’re now locked into the top Wild Card spot, but they’d likely enjoy sticking it to their division rivals after watching them celebrate last night.

Below, we'll break down our Rays vs. Yankees prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Rays vs. Yankees picks and predictions on PrizePicks now.

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Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 23

On Wednesday, SP Ian Seymour will get the start for Tampa Bay. The left-hander has struggled a bit down the stretch and comes in with a mediocre 4.38 ERA, but his underlying metrics are generally encouraging. Across 127.1 innings pitched, Seymour boasts a 3.16 SIERA and 3.65 xERA with a 29.0% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. 

The southpaw’s main issue has been the long ball. Per Baseball Savant, Seymour has posted a 10.4% barrel rate (eighth percentile) and 34.6% ground ball rate (eighth percentile), which has contributed to him coughing up 1.77 HR/9.

Luckily for Seymour, tonight’s forecast might give him a boost. We could be looking at 16 mph winds blowing in from left field at Yankee Stadium with temperatures in the low 60s. 

Meanwhile, SP Gerrit Cole will get the nod for the Yankees. Similar to his counterpart, Cole has been a little iffy over his last handful of starts, but his 3.63 ERA is supported by a 3.55 SIERA and 3.84 xERA.

While the veteran right-hander hasn’t displayed the overpowering stuff of his prime, he’s managed a solid 24.7% strikeout rate paired with an elite 4.4% walk rate.

Allowing loud contact has been a problem, though. Cole has ceded a 45.2% hard-hit rate (third percentile), 90.9 mph average exit velocity (third percentile), and 8.7% barrel rate (27th percentile). Add in a 34.5% ground ball rate (eighth percentile), and he’s been conceding a good chunk of dingers (1.56 HR/9). 

Needless to say, Cole will also happily take tonight’s pitcher-friendly weather conditions.

Offensively, the Rays rank fifth in wRC+ (104) this season while the Yankees are 15th (101), per FanGraphs. 

Both teams have platoon-heavy lineups that could give them an advantage against tonight’s starters. When facing righties, Tampa Bay has the fourth-best wRC+ (110) and second-best K-rate (18.9%). New York owns the eighth-best wRC+ (106) and fifth-best ISO (.174) vs. southpaws. 

Rays vs. Yankees Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 23

The Yankees enter Wednesday’s game as a home favorite against the Rays, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Rays vs. Yankees game on PrizePicks.

Make your Rays vs. Yankees prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction on Winner – 9/23/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Rays vs. Yankees prediction on the winner for Wednesday, September 23.

Lock in your Rays vs. Yankees prediction on PrizePicks now.

• With the Rays clinching the top seed and celebrating late last night, it wouldn’t be surprising if some key players get the night off and/or are a bit sluggish on Wednesday.
• Despite winning most of their games over the last couple of weeks, Tampa Bay hasn’t hit particularly well. Across the last 14 days, they rank 25th in wOBA (.291) and 24th in ISO (.129). 
• This is further supported by the Rays also ranking 29th in xwOBA (.287), 25th in hard-hit rate (33.5%), and 30th in barrel rate (4.7%) over that span.
• The Yankees have produced a league-best 10.4% barrel rate over the last 14 days. 
• Seymour has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his last seven starts, which includes giving up multiple bombs four times.

Rays vs. Yankees Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/23/26

Here are the top Rays vs. Yankees picks to target on PrizePicks on Wednesday, September 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Cody Bellinger and Yandy Diaz.

Yankees OF Cody Bellinger vs. Rays: 5.5 Fantasy Score

• Despite being a southpaw, Seymour has allowed 2.34 HR/9 to left-handed batters.
• Bellinger has been rock-solid in lefty-lefty matchups throughout his career. In 2026, he’s posted a 115 wRC+ with a 14.3% strikeout rate in the split.
• Overall, the outfielder has shown somewhat modest power, but he’s put up a .337 xwOBA (72nd percentile) and .272 xBA (85th percentile). 
• Bellinger has performed well at the plate this month, posting a .377 wOBA and .228 ISO.
• His strong play has helped him tally 16 runs and 14 RBIs over 19 games in September.  

Add Cody Bellinger + Yankees to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Rays DH Yandy Diaz vs. Yankees: 6.5 Fantasy Score

• Prior to getting 2 hits last night, Diaz had gone hitless to six straight games.
• Over the last 14 days, Diaz has posted a .140 wOBA and a .225 xwOBA. He’s also recorded a .000 ISO due to recording no extra-bases hits over this stretch.
• While he’s generally shown positive Statcast metrics, the DH has produced a mediocre 7.3% barrel rate (46th percentile). He also has a below-average 8.2% walk rate (37th percentile).
• Diaz hasn't hit a home run since September 8.

Add Yandy Diaz + Rays to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Rays vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

The Tampa Bay Rays still have an opportunity to finish with MLB’s best record. Can the New York Yankees hurt their chances with a win tonight? 

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Rays vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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