The Tampa Bay Rays (11-8) battle the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-8) on Saturday, April 18, at 4:05 p.m. ET, with the Pirates sporting a 1.58x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
Pittsburgh opened the three-game series with a 5-1 win on Friday. The loss snapped the Rays’ six-game winning streak. Will Tampa Bay bounce back on Saturday?
Below, we'll break down our Rays vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB game, including the winner payouts, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Rays vs. Pirates on PrizePicks now.
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Rays vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, April 18
Today’s matchup is headlined by the starting pitchers. The 2025 National League Cy Young winner, Paul Skenes, will take the mound for the Pirates.
Since a brutal season debut with 5 earned runs in under an inning of work, Skenes has rebounded with a 1.56 ERA over his last three starts, pitching 5.7 innings per appearance. FanGraphs gives Pittsburgh’s starter a 2.43 xERA, 4.19 xFIP, and 3.84 SIERA.
Rays SP Drew Rasmussen hasn’t been too shabby either, carrying a 1.13 ERA, 2.59 xFIP, and 2.57 SIERA over three starts and 16.0 innings pitched. He’s surrendered only 2 earned runs over three outings.
Will Saturday’s strong starting pitcher matchup lead to a low run total?
Rays vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, April 18
The Pirates enter Saturday’s game as a home favorite against the Rays, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Rays vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (2.27x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Rays - 2.27x | Pirates - 1.58x
Play the Rays vs. Pirates winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Rays vs. Pirates Prediction on Over/Under – 4/18/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Rays vs. Pirates prediction on the over/under for Saturday, April 18.
Lock in your Rays vs. Pirates prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
In addition to strong pitching on the bump, today’s weather outlook in Pittsburgh looks gloomy. According to RotoGrinders’ MLB weather report, there’s a high chance of storms from 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. ET with winds reaching up to 14 mph.
We could be looking at a delay, assuming this game still takes place on Saturday. That could shorten starts for Skenes and Rasmussen.
If either team has to turn to its bullpen early, the Pirates’ relievers have a 4.10 xFIP (15th) compared to the Rays’ 4.99 xFIP (28th). Pittsburgh’s bullpen has given up 41 runs (18th), while Tampa Bay has allowed an alarming 55 runs scored (26th).
Furthermore, the Rays batting order has 92 runs scored (11th), a .326 wOBA (10th), and a .384 SLG (12th). The Pirates are a notch ahead with 100 runs scored (eighth), a .338 wOBA (tied for sixth), and a .399 SLG (tied for eighth).
Ultimately, each batting order is capable of lighting up underwhelming bullpens if Rasmussen and Skenes’ starts are shortened by weather.
Rays vs. Pirates Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/18/26
Here are top Rays vs. Pirates picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, April 18. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Yandy Diaz and Paul Skenes.
Rays DH Yandy Diaz vs. Pirates Projection: 1.5 Total Bases (Demon)
- Diaz tops the Rays order with a blistering .365 batting average, a .453 OBP, and a .554 SLG.
- The 10-year veteran carries a .299 xBA (89th percentile) and a .462 xSLG (74th percentile), per Baseball Savant.
- While Skenes has improved of late, he’s given up a home run in back-to-back starts and allows 1.00 HR/9.
- Diaz hits an eye-popping .382 against right-handed pitchers compared to .316 when facing southpaws.
- Skenes’ most-used pitches are his four-seam fastball (36.7%), changeup (21.1%), and sinker (17.0%). The Rays’ designated hitter has batted .333, .400, and .500 against the three pitches this season.
- Diaz is on a seven-game hitting streak and has totaled at least 2 bases in four consecutive contests.
Add Yandy Diaz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Pirates SP Paul Skenes vs. Rays: 93.5 Pitches Thrown
- While Skenes’ 4.19 xFIP is far off from last season’s 3.03 mark, this number is still being elevated by his first start with a dreadful 19.85 xFIP.
- In his last three appearances, the Cy Young contender posted xFIPs of 4.28, 3.77, and 2.80.
- His pitch count has stayed down, though, logging 77, 87, and 88 pitches in his last three starts.
- Skenes has yet to pitch for 7.0 innings this season, and the Rays are dangerous with 6.2 runs per game over their last 10 matchups.
- A potential weather delay also adds to the difficulty of a deep start.
Add Paul Skenes to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Rays vs. Pirates Picks on PrizePicks
Will today’s potential gloomy weather in Pittsburgh impact MLB picks? A potential weather delay could lead to shortened starts, forcing each team to turn to underwhelming bullpens.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Rays vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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