The NFL heads to Brazil, with the Ravens vs. Cowboys kicking off at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS. According to PrizePicks, the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on the spread for today.
Dallas got its first win of the season last week against the Commanders, while the Ravens blew an 8-point fourth-quarter lead in a loss to the Saints.
Below, we’ll break down our Ravens vs. Cowboys prediction, followed by player projections via PrizePicks.
Make your Ravens vs. Cowboys picks on PrizePicks now!
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Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27
All stats are via NFL Next Gen Stats and PFF unless otherwise noted.
The Ravens got newly hired head coach Jesse Minter his first career win in Week 1 over the Colts. With a brand-new coaching staff, they put up 41 points and 506 total yards.
The game against the Saints did not go as well. The offense didn't have that same explosive rate, but they still led 17-9 heading into the fourth quarter. However, New Orleans scored 15 unanswered points to complete the 24-17 comeback win.
The offense noticeably struggled without WRs Zay Flowers and Ja’Kobi Lane. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson threw for just 235 yards, and RB Derrick Henry managed just 68 yards on the ground, snapping a six-game streak of at least 90 rushing yards dating back to last year. Henry had just 5 carries in the second half with the Ravens holding a lead.
The good news is Flowers returned to practice this week and is listed as questionable for this game. Lane, however, is on IR and will miss at least three more games.
With injuries on offense, the Ravens are hoping the defense steps up. The unit has been average so far, ranking 13th in EPA allowed per play (0.04) and 17th in defensive success rate (43.7%), according to RBSDM.
Baltimore’s most notable signing on defense was EDGE Trey Hendrickson, but he hasn’t been much of a factor with only 4 total tackles, 1 sack, and 1 tackle for loss.
The Ravens’ defense could face a challenge against a Cowboys offense that’s ranked eighth in points per game (28.5).
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a nearly perfect performance, throwing for 4 TDs in the win against the Commanders and currently leads the league with 6 passing TDs.
Prescott has two elite wide receivers to target. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb was a huge presence in Dallas’ win over Washington with 153 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Fellow Cowboys WR George Pickens has not been much of a factor with just 68 receiving yards in two games, but he holds 14 targets (second on team).
Dallas was busy in the offseason upgrading its defense after finishing last in points allowed per game last year (30.1). The Cowboys traded for Packers EDGE Rashan Gary and 49ers LB Dee Winters, while drafting Ohio State S Caleb Downs and UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.
However, the defense yet to improve and ranks 29th in EPA allowed per play (0.91) and 32nd in defensive success rate (54.0%).
Ravens vs. Cowboys Spread, Over/Under for Brazil Game – Sunday, September 27
The Ravens are a 3.5-point road favorite with a 1.51x payout to win outright, compared to the Cowboys' 2.43x payout.
Here are the full payouts for the Ravens vs. Cowboys on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under.
Make your Ravens vs. Cowboys prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction on Spread for Brazil Game – 9/27/26
- The Ravens have been productive in the run game, ranking third in yards per carry (5.3). The Cowboys struggle against the run, ranking 27th in yards allowed per carry.
- That advantage in the run game could extend to the other side of the ball. The Ravens are sixth in rushing yards allowed per carry (3.6), while the Cowboys haven't established the run with 3.5 yards per carry (26th).
- Dallas allows the league's highest third-down conversion rate (68.0%).
- Baltimore has done exceptionally well at keeping pressure off the quarterback, ranking seventh in pressure rate allowed (19.1%). Dallas hasn't generated consistent pressure, ranking 26th in pressure rate (19.2%).
- The Ravens rank 10th in first-down rate (63.6%), and the Cowboys are allowing the highest first-down conversion rate (75.0%).
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Ravens vs. Cowboys Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/27/26
Here are the top Ravens vs. Cowboys picks to target on Sunday, September 27. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB Derrick Henry and QB Dak Prescott.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Cowboys: 90 Rush Yards
- Henry ranks third in rushing success rate (57.5%). The Cowboys are 29th in opponents’ rushing success rate.
- According to TeamRankings, the Ravens are one of the heaviest run teams, ranking eighth in rush-play rate (49.1%). The Cowboys allow their opponents to run the ball at the ninth-highest clip (51.1%)
- In Henry’s last matchup against the Cowboys in 2024, he ran for 151 yards.
- Henry has run well even against a stacked box, ranking eighth in yards per carry (3.6) for the split. In a stacked box, Dallas is still giving up 5.06 yards per rushing attempt (27th).
Add Derrick Henry + Ravens to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. Ravens: 266.5 Pass Yards
- In Prescott’s last matchup against the Ravens in 2024, he threw for 379 yards.
- Prescott has the fourth-best completion rate in the NFL (73.8%), while the Ravens are allowing the sixth-highest completion rate (70.7%).
- Third-down success could further aid Prescott, as he's second in dropback success for the split (68.2%). Meanwhile, the Ravens are 19th in dropback success rate allowed on third downs (45.0%).
- The Ravens have the ninth-highest blitz rate in the league (32.9%). However, that hasn't slowed Prescott, with the third-best completion rate (78.3%) against the blitz.
Add Dak Prescott + Cowboys to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Ravens vs. Cowboys Picks on PrizePicks
The NFL heads to Rio in Brazil for a matchup between the Ravens and Cowboys. Both teams are 1-1, hoping to snag a winning record with a dub today.
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