The 2025 Home Run Derby will take place in Atlanta at Truist Park on Monday, July 14, showcasing eight of the MLB’s most highly touted sluggers will square off. Leading the contestants is Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, who leads the MLB with 38 home runs.
Tune in at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN for the Home Run Derby, as Cal Raleigh looks to defend his first-half home run title in a stacked field, including Oneil Cruz, Byron Buxton, and more. Below, we'll give you the top 2025 Home Run Derby picks for tonight, with analysis on every player.
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2025 Home Run Derby Picks, Projections Tonight
Here are all of the Home Run Derby picks and projections available on PrizePicks for tonight. Use this analysis make your Home Run Derby predictions on PrizePicks MLB on Monday, July 14.
Note that Home Run total projections are based on the first round only (three minutes each).
- Mariners Cal Raleigh – 21.5 HR, 454.5 FT Longest HR
- Pirates Oneil Cruz – 21.5 HR, 471.5 FT Longest HR
- Twins Byron Buxton 18.5 HR, 460.5 FT Longest HR
- Braves Matt Olson – 18.5 HR, 454.5 FT Longest HR
- Athletics Brent Rooker 18.5 HR, 452.5 FT Longest HR
- Rays Junior Caminero – 17.5 HR, 444.5 FT Longest HR
- Yankees Jazz Chisholm 16.5 HR, 442.5 FT Longest HR
Mariners Cal Raleigh – 21.5 HR
- Raleigh leads all contestants with 38 home runs this season, showcasing his prestigious power.
- He owns the highest fly-ball rate at 57%, paired with a 55% hard-hit rate.
- His 91.8 mph average exit velocity has produced 49 barrels, the most among this year’s Derby field, and equates to a 20% barrel rate.
Pirates Oneil Cruz – 21.5 HR
- Cruz enters with the fewest homers (16) among contestants this season, but compensates with highly rated advanced metrics.
- He tops the field with a 96.3 mph average exit velocity and has generated 43 barrels, translating to a 22.2% barrel rate, the highest in this Derby.
- Cruz also posts a 57.7% hard-hit rate, leading all participants in batted-ball quality.
Rays Junior Caminero – 17.5 HR
- Tampa Bay’s up-and-comer hits 23 home runs in 2025, ranking third among Home Run Derby contestants.
- His 91.0 mph average exit velocity is the second-lowest in the group, resulting in 31 barrels and a 10.9% barrel rate, the second fewest overall.
- Caminero has had an outstanding first half of the season, with 134 hard-hit balls on the season.
Twins Byron Buxton – 18.5 HR
- Buxton brings 21 home runs into the contest, fifth most in the American League, complemented by 119 hard hits for a 55.3% hard-hit rate.
- His 92.1 mph average exit velocity has yielded 34 barrels, amounting to a 15.8% barrel rate.
- Buxton is from Georgia, making this a homecoming for the 31-year-old.
Braves Matt Olson – 18.5 HR
- Matt Olson enters tied for the second-fewest homers in the Home Run Derby,with 17 on the year.
- He ranks second-highest in exit velocity at 93.8 mph, generating 44 barrels (third-most) for a 16.7% barrel rate and a 54.4% hard-hit rate.
- Olson was the last entrant to the field, joining within the last four days, though he previously participated in 2021.
Athletics Brent Rooker – 18.5 HR
- Rooker cracks the contest with 20 home runs this season.
- His 91.6 mph average exit velocity places him third slowest among Derby hitters, yet he still produces 42 barrels for a 14.5% barrel rate.
- He posts a 47.8% hard-hit rate, also the third lowest mark in the field.
Yankees Jazz Chisholm – 16.5 HR
- Jazz owns the lowest HR projection on PrizePicks in the Home Run Derby.
- Tied for the 2nd lowest HR (16) total among all contestants this season.
- Chisholm has the lowest amount of Barrels (30) and the lowest amount of hard-hit balls with only 30 among contestants.
Make HR Derby Picks on PrizePicks
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Whether you're targeting hitters like Mariners' Cal Raleigh or Pirates' Oneil Cruz projections, there are hundreds of projections at your disposal on PrizePicks.
