The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-17) are set to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-17) in the second game of a three-game series on Wednesday, May 6, at 9:40 p.m. ET. Arizona cruised to a 9-0 victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, as SP Eduardo Rodriguez tallied 7 Ks while only allowing 2 hits.
Ahead of the first pitch on Wednesday night, the Pirates are road favorites with a 1.72x payout if they defeat the Diamondbacks, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Below, we'll break down our Pirates vs. Diamondbacks prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Pirates vs. Diamondbacks on PrizePicks now.
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Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, May 6
For the second game of the series, Pirates SP Paul Skenes (3.07 xFIP across 7 starts and 34.0 IP) and the Diamondbacks SP Michael Soroka (3.32 xFIP across 6 starts and 30.2 IP) will be toeing the rubber.
Since being chased in the first inning of his season-opening start, Skenes has been stellar on the mound, residing in the 94th percentile in xERA (2.24) and the 93rd percentile in xBA (.181), per Baseball Savant.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Skenes is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young, carrying the lowest payout (3.22x) to take home the hardware. Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani is second with a 4.76x payout.
To begin the 2026 MLB season, the Pirates’ bats have been a much-improved unit, registering the eighth-best wRC+ (103) and seventh-best wOBA (.325), via FanGraphs.
Following a hot start through his first three outings, Soroka has tailed off in recent appearances, which has led to falling in the 25th percentile in xERA (5.09) and 15th percentile in xBA (.282).
The Diamondbacks’ lineup continues to be a steady group, posting the 11th-best wRC+ (100), 12th-best wOBA (.320), and sixth-best ISO (.166) so far.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, May 6
The Pirates enter Wednesday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Pirates -1.5 (2.17x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Pirates 1.72x | Diamondbacks 2.12x
Play the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction on Winner – 5/6/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Pirates vs. Diamondbacks prediction on the winner for Wednesday, May 6.
Lock in your Pirates vs. Diamondbacks prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- While the Diamondbacks have gone 4-2 in Soroka’s starts this season, he’s surrendered 4 ER or more in two of his last four outings.
- Besides his concerning expected metrics mentioned above, Soroka is also in the 19th percentile in barrel rate (11.4%), 37th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.0%), and 36th percentile in groundball rate (39.8%).
- Skenes has coughed up 1 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts.
- Against right-handed pitching this season, the Pirates boast the eighth-best wRC+ (108) and seventh-best wOBA (.334).
- Arizona doesn’t deploy a left-handed reliever regularly, as they have just one healthy lefty in the bullpen (RP Brandyn Garcia), so Pittsburgh’s left-handed sluggers have less pinch-hit risk.
- When facing right-handed hurlers this year, the Diamondbacks have the seventh-worst wRC+ (93), seventh-worst wOBA (.310), and eighth-highest strikeout rate (23.0%).
- These two teams' bullpens have a similar xERA, with Pittsburgh sitting at 14th (3.94) and Arizona at 13th (3.93).
- The Diamondbacks’ relievers have the highest hard-contact rate (39.1%) and eighth-highest HR/9 (1.19). Pittsburgh has the 13th-lowest hard-contact rate and 12th-lowest HR/9 (0.86).
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/6/26
Here are the top Pirates vs. Diamondbacks picks to target on PrizePicks for Wednesday, May 6. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Paul Skenes and Brandon Lowe.
Pirates SP Paul Skenes vs. Diamondbacks Projection: 4.5 Hits Allowed
- Over his first seven starts in 2026, Skenes has permitted 5 or more hits in just one of those outings.
- With the Diamondbacks likely deploying a lefty-heavy lineup, it’s worth noting that Skenes has a 3.02 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 0.87 HR/9 to that handedness this year. He had a 2.92 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, 31.5% strikeout rate, and 0.64 HR/9 in that split last year.
- Skenes is in the 74th percentile in chase rate (32.8%) and 89th percentile in strikeout rate (29.3%) to begin the campaign.
- Taking that into account, Arizona has the third-highest swing rate on pitches outside the zone (36.0%) and fifth-highest CSW rate (28.4%) in the league.
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Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe vs. Diamondbacks Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Soroka is logging a 3.77 xFIP, .442 BABIP, and 1.80 WHIP to lefties, compared to a 2.78 xFIP, .273 BABIP, and 1.00 WHIP to righties in 2026.
- On the season, Lowe is crushing right-handed pitching to the tune of a 184 wRC+, .444 wOBA, and .325 ISO across his first 98 PAs in that split.
- Additionally, Lowe possesses a 169 wRC+, .421 wOBA, and .386 ISO in 51 PAs on the road to begin the year. He has a 125 wRC+, .361 wOBA, and .211 ISO at home in 84 PAs.
- Along with hitting near the top of the order on the visiting team (which guarantees the Pirates get to hit in the ninth inning), Lowe is one of the left-handed hitters who should benefit from Arizona’s lack of lefty relievers.
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The Diamondbacks snapped a four-game losing streak with a lopsided win over the Pirates on Tuesday, but they’ll be tasked with facing Paul Skenes on Wednesday. Will Pittsburgh bounce back with a victory and avoid giving Arizona a chance to sweep the series?
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Pirates vs. Diamondbacks picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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