Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, August 5

First pitch for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers game is set for 7:30 p.m ET on Wednesday, August 5, with the Brewers entering the ESPN bout as home favorites and returning a 1.72x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s outing is game three of a four-game series between these two division rivals. While the set is tied 1-1, the Pirates have had the Brewers' number, winning six of their eight matchups on the year. Can the Brewers defend home field, take a firm grasp on winning this series, and chip away at the season head-to-head record?

Below, we'll break down our Pirates vs. Brewers prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Pirates vs. Brewers on PrizePicks now.

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Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, August 5

The Pirates have taken a drastic step forward this year. Their aggressive offseason acquisitions of prominent hitters like 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum, and 1B Ryan O’Hearn have them as one of the most explosive offenses in baseball.

After hitting the fewest home runs in 2025 (117), they are already sitting at 141 so far this season, the ninth-most in the majors. Despite this, they still find themselves with a 57-58 record and on the outside looking in when it comes to the NL Wild Card race.

The good news is that reinforcements should be on the way with star rookie SS Konnor Griffin and star CF Oneil Cruz both due back from their injuries at some point. In the meantime, the Pirates will have to tread water and hope that a late-season playoff push can see them snap their 10-year postseason drought.

Arguably the class of regular-season baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers currently boast the best record at 70-43 and the second-best run differential (+136) behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+141). Many were frustrated that the Brewers didn't do more to acquire P Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline, but even without him, this is a team that's built to win.

The return of SP Kyle Harrison today gives them one of the best one-two punches in MLB, headlining their rotation with P Jacob Misiorwski and Harrison. Their offense is also patient, refuses to strike out, and forces teams into their bullpen earlier than they want.

Milwaukee also has a shutdown bullpen that can lock down wins from the eighth inning onward.

Pirates vs. Brewers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, August 5

The Brewers enter Wednesday’s game as home favorites against the Pirates, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Pirates vs. Brewers game on PrizePicks.

Play the Pirates vs. Brewers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction on Winner – 8/5/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Pirates vs. Brewers prediction on the winner for Wednesday, August 5.

Lock in your Pirates vs. Brewers prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Brewers are tied for the ninth-best covering record in the majors with a 60-53-0 (53.1%) record ATS (against the spread).
• They've been even more dominant at home, holding the third-best home covering record at 33-25-0 (56.9%).
• Pittsburgh has been an average covering team to the tune of a 58-57-0 (50.4%) ATS record.
• Despite SP Paul Skenes on the mound for the Pirates, this SP matchup is a wash with Kyle Harrison’s xFIP (3.13) going toe-to-toe with Skenes' 3.12.
• Offensively, the Brewers hold a significant advantage. The Brew Crew are seventh over the last two weeks in wRC+ (110) while the Pirates rank dead last over that same timespan with a wRC+ of just 66.
• Milwaukee also has the superior bullpen that owns the fifth-best season-long xFIP as a unit (3.92). That's significantly better than the Pirates, who rank 18th with a bullpen xFIP of 4.27.

Pirates vs. Brewers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/5/26

Here are the top Pirates vs. Brewers picks to target on Wednesday, August 5. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Paul Skenes and Kyle Harrison.

Pirates P Paul Skenes vs. Brewers: 4.5 Hits Allowed

• While his numbers are still elite, there is something going on with Paul Skenes' velocity. He's drastically cut down on 98+ MPH pitches after throwing them with regularity last season.
• This lack of velo has seen teams put the ball in play against him more than ever before. He's given up more than 4.5 hits in six of his last seven starts.
• Skenes only gave up 0.72 hits per inning in 2025. This season, that number has jumped to 0.86.
• Pittsburgh’s ace has been much more hittable on the road, owning a 12.15 K/9 and a 2.73 xFIP at home but marks of 9.99 and 3.68 xFIP away from home.

Add Paul Skenes to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Brewers P Kyle Harrison vs. Pirates: 6 Strikeouts

• It is worth noting that Harrison threw just 68 pitches in his rehab assignment, so he may see his volume limited on Wednesday. Despite that, he may still have chances to rack up strikeouts against a Pirates team that has struck out 24.1% of the time, fifth-most in the majors.
• Harrison has a dominant 10.86 K/9 on the season and an even more dominant 11.49 K/9 at home.
• These impressive strikeout numbers are backed up by pinpoint command (2.15 BB/9) and an elite swinging-strike rate of 13.4%.
• Pittsburgh is also a team that struggles against southpaws, striking out at a 25.1% clip against lefties.

Add Kyle Harrison to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Pirates vs. Brewers Picks on PrizePicks

The Pirates have impressively handled the Brewers this season, but this is a Milwaukee team that is as good as it comes. Can the Brewers hold onto the best record in baseball by getting to Paul Skenes tonight in Milwaukee?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Pirates vs. Brewers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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