After splitting the first two matchups of a three-game series, the Pittsburgh Pirates (2-3) and the Cincinnati Reds (3-2) meet for a rubber match on Wednesday, April 1, at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Both teams will lean on strong arms, as Pirates SP Paul Skenes (3.03 xFIP in 2025) and Reds SP Andrew Abbott (4.31 xFIP in 2025) will duel on Wednesday afternoon. Who will take the series win in this NL Central bout?
Let’s break down the matchup, make a Pirates vs. Reds prediction, and circle a pair of player projections to target for MLB picks for PrizePicks.
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Pirates vs. Reds Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under
In Game 1, Cincinnati pitched a shutout against the Pirates, winning 2-0. On Tuesday, Pittsburgh’s bats woke up in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, totaling 5 runs in the second inning of the 8-3 win.
The Pirates’ sluggers got busy, racking up 4 home runs, and Pittsburgh OF Oneil Cruz was the driving force with 2 long balls. Will the hot streak continue to Wednesday?
Before Tuesday’s loss, Cincinnati allowed only 2.5 runs per game. The Reds’ batting order has posted only 2.8 runs per contest through five games, leaning on strong pitching. This could continue into Wednesday against Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
Does Abbott have enough stuff to keep Pittsburgh’s production in check?
Pirates vs. Reds Winner Payout, Over/Under
Thanks to a potential advantage on the mound, the Pirates are clear favorites with a 1.61x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Similar to Tuesday, the Reds are home underdogs with a 2.32x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Pirates -1.5 (2x)
- Over/Under: 7.5 Runs (1.92x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Pirates (1.61x) | Reds (2.32x)
Team picks data is live as of this writing and is subject to change.
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction on Winner – 4/1/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Pirates vs. Reds prediction for the game winner on Wednesday, April 1, on PrizePicks.
- Skenes struggled in his 2026 debut, giving up 4 hits, 2 walks, and 5 earned runs in the first inning vs. the Mets.
- However, Cincinnati posted a .309 wOBA (tied for 17th), compared to the Mets’ .326 wOBA (sixth) last season.
- In two meetings with the 2025 Reds, Skenes did not allow 1 run and pitched for 6.0 innings in both appearances.
- Abbott, meanwhile, was in the 57th percentile of barrel rate allowed last season, per Baseball Savant.
- The left-handed hurler allowed 1.32, 1.63, and 1.03 HR/9 in his first three seasons, per FanGraphs, providing an angle for the Pirates’ sluggers to stay hot.
- Backed by two switch hitters in the order, Pittsburgh also features five left-handed hitters, and Abbott gave up a .252 batting average vs. lefties compared to .236 vs. righties last season.
Pirates vs. Reds Picks for PrizePicks Today: 4/1/26
Check out a pair of MLB picks to target for Pirates vs. Reds on Wednesday, April 1. Pirates SP Paul Skenes and 2B Brandon Lowe headline player stat projections via PrizePicks.
Pirates SP Paul Skenes vs. Reds Projection: 7.5 Strikeouts
- Over two starts vs. the Reds in 2025, Skenes logged 7.5 strikeouts per game.
- Cincinnati had a 23.3% strikeout rate last season, tied for the seventh-highest mark. That led to a concerning 8.9 strikeouts per game.
- This has carried over to 2026, with the Redlegs posting 10.4 Ks per contest (23rd).
- Skenes was in the 78th percentile for chase rate, 83rd percentile for whiff rate, and 89th percentile for strikeout percentage last season.
- With the Reds averaging only 2.8 runs per game, a deep start with a lofty K total could be in line for Skenes.
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Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe vs. Reds Projection: 1.5 Total Bases (Demon)
- Brandon Lowe has enjoyed an excellent start to his Pirates career, hitting .333 and slugging .889 thanks to 3 big flies through five games.
- Abbott heavily leaned on his four-seam fastball last season (47.2% usage rate), and he posted a 54.2% mark in his first start of 2026.
- Lowe bats .268 against this pitch across his career, per FanGraphs.
- The former Tampa Bay Ray finished in the 81st percentile of barrel rate and 80th percentile of xSLG last season.
Make Pirates vs. Reds Picks on PrizePicks
While Skenes got off to a rough start, PrizePicks Team Picks still gives the Pirates’ ace the shortest payout (3.33x) to win the NL Cy Young. Will he return to his dominant form against a struggling Reds order?
You can make your Pirates vs. Reds picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
