Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, September 17

First pitch for the Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets game is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 17, with the Mets entering as home favorites and returning a 1.72x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s contest is the first of a four-game series between these two NL East rivals. Philadelphia enters Thursday at 84-68 and in possession of the second NL Wild Card spot, while New York sits at 69-83.

The Phillies are coming off a 3-0 victory over the Nationals on Wednesday, while the Mets dropped their fourth straight game in a 7-1 loss to the Orioles.

Below, we'll break down our Phillies vs. Mets prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Phillies vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks now.

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Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, September 17

The Phillies enter Thursday sitting 4.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. With just nine games remaining in the regular season, it would take not only a Herculean effort but also a monumental collapse from the Braves for Philly to win the division.

Philadelphia will send veteran RHP Aaron Nola to the mound. He owns a 4.69 ERA across 30 starts, but his underlying numbers are considerably better, including a 3.89 xFIP that's almost a full run below his ERA.

His biggest issue has been the long ball. Nola's surrendered 34 home runs in 161.1 innings, the highest rate of his career.

Nola has actually pitched much better recently, posting a 3.08 ERA over his last 11 starts since the All-Star break. However, he still allowed 2 solo homers in his most recent outing against Atlanta.

The Mets counter with rookie RHP Nolan McLean (3.66 xFIP), who's put together an excellent debut season. McLean enters Thursday with an 11-9 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 184 strikeouts across 166.2 innings.

McLean becoming the future ace of this Mets staff will largely depend on his ability to reduce his walk rate (3.56 BB/9) going forward.

Phillies vs. Mets Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, September 17

The Mets enter Thursday’s game as home favorites against the Phillies, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Phillies vs. Mets game on PrizePicks.

Play the Phillies vs. Mets spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction on Winner – 9/17/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Phillies vs. Mets prediction on the winner for Thursday, September 17.

Lock in your Phillies vs. Mets prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• It’s close across the board, but I give the Mets the edge in offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching tonight.
• McLean has a superior xFIP to Nola and succeeded against this Phillies team in July, allowing no runs over 6 innings while striking out 10.
• Nola has a slightly worse xFIP (4.07) on the road than at home (3.68) and surrendered 3 home runs to the Mets in his most recent outing against them in July.
• The Mets also have legitimate offensive momentum despite their recent losses. Over the last two weeks, New York has the fifth-best wRC+ in the majors (117). In that same time span, the Phillies rank 24th with a wRC+ of 86.
• The Metropolitans bullpen has also been cooking over the last two weeks, owning the fourth-best xFIP (3.26). Philadelphia's pen is 18th with a 4.39 xFIP in that window.

Phillies vs. Mets Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/17/26

Here are the top Phillies vs. Mets picks to target on Thursday, September 17. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Juan Soto and Aaron Nola.

Mets OF Juan Soto vs. Phillies: 0.5 Walks

• Soto profiles incredibly well against Nola and has already hit 5 home runs off the righty in his career. Philly should be aware of this and could make it a point to pitch carefully so Soto doesn't beat them.
• Soto has also drawn 19 (!) walks off Aaron Nola in his career in only 46 at-bats.
• Nola has a 4.25 BB/9 rate against LHH compared to a minuscule 1.27 BB/9 against RHH. He also has an elevated walk rate on the road, drawing 3.32 BB/9 away from home compared to a 2.77 BB/9 in Philly.
• Nola has also seen his walk rate increase in the second half of the season. Pre-ASB, he had a 2.88 BB/9; post-ASB, that number has spiked to 3.36.

Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Phillies P Aaron Nola vs. Mets: 2.5 Earned Runs

• In addition to his elevated walk rates, Nola will have to navigate serious power issues if he intends to be successful in New York tonight.
• He has allowed a 1.9 HR/9 this season and now runs into a Mets offense that is healthy and hitting the ball well with a .194 ISO over the last two weeks, the second-highest figure in the majors.
• During the second half of the year, Nola owns an unsustainably high 96.2% left-on-base rate. The major league average is in the low 70s, meaning Nola has likely gotten fortunate with stranding runners. 
• In his last two outings against the Mets, he's given up 5 home runs. Each was a solo shot.

Add Aaron Nola to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Phillies vs. Mets Picks on PrizePicks

The Phillies enter New York with plenty at stake as they continue their push toward the postseason, while the Mets begin a four-game home series looking to play spoiler.

Will McLean continue his excellent rookie season against a dormant volcano, or will Nola keep the Mets' powerful bats in check despite his home-run issues this season?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Phillies vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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