Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, July 29

The Philadelphia Phillies (57-51) and Miami Marlins (54-54) will meet in the final game of their three-game series at loanDepot Park in Miami on Wednesday, July 29 at 12:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies enter as road favorites, returning a 1.53x payout if they win, via PrizePicks. ‍

The Marlins, who entered the series on a 12-game losing streak, took the first two games of the set with a walk-off on Monday and a 1-0 triumph on Tuesday behind pitcher Sandy Alcantara. 

Below, we’ll break down our Phillies vs. Marlins prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB showdown, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Phillies vs. Marlins picks and predictions on PrizePicks now.

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Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 29

The series is a matchup of two fading teams in the NL East, as the Phillies have now lost six of the past seven and are 3-8 since hosting the All-Star Game earlier this month. The Marlins reached a season-high 10 games over .500 before dropping the last three before the break and the first nine after it to set a franchise record for consecutive losses.  

The two teams have met nine previous times this year, with Philly taking five of the first six matchups and the Marlins taking the last three.

The Phillies now trail the Atlanta Braves in the NL East by six games — the furthest they have been back since June 22. They'll send pitcher Jesus Luzardo to the mound to face his former team and attempt to salvage the final game of the series. He’ll face Ryan Gusto, making his eighth start of 2026 for the Marlins.  

Luzardo, who went 21-28 in parts of four seasons with Miami, enters with a 2.91 xFIP (fifth-best in baseball) and a 2.25 xERA (fourth-best). The lefty has allowed 1 or fewer ER in each of his last six starts, sporting an MLB-best 1.71 xERA since June 23. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits over 7 innings with 9 strikeouts against the Fish back in June.

Gusto has alternated between the bullpen and rotation since being called from Triple-A Jacksonville in early June. He started against the Phillies on June 15, taking the loss after allowing 5 runs on 8 hits over 4.2 innings. His xFIP is 4.33 over 12 appearances. 

Phillies vs. Marlins Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 29

The Phillies enter Wednesday’s game as favorites, returning a 1.53x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Phillies vs. Marlins game on PrizePicks.

Play the Phillies vs. Marlins winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction on Over/Under – 7/29/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Phillies vs. Marlins prediction on the over/under for Wednesday, July 29.

Lock in your Phillies vs. Marlins prediction on PrizePicks.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Phillies have played 58 unders out of 108 games this season, tied for the most in MLB. Including pushes, the 56.3% under rate is the second-highest in the sport. 
• Dating back to the first half, Philly has played nine of the last 13 games under the listed total. Since July 2, the Phillies are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, 26th out of 30 teams. 
• Additionally, the Phillies are hitting .237 on the season (23rd) and have a wRC+ of 92 (27th).
• On the season, the Marlins have played more overs than unders. Since their 2-12 swoon began on July 10, however, they've gone under in 10 of 14 games. 
• Miami has scored 3 runs or fewer in six of the last seven games, in eight of 11 since the break, and in 11 of the last 14 overall. 
• Over the last 14 games, the Marlins are last in runs per game (2.8), 26th in BABIP (.270), 25th in ISO (.136), and 29th in average (.221).

Phillies vs. Marlins Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/29/26

Here are the top Phillies vs. Marlins picks to target on Wednesday, July 29. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include OF Brandon Marsh and SS Otto Lopez.

Phillies OF Brandon Marsh vs. Marlins: 5 Fantasy Score

• Phillies OF Brandon Marsh leads the team with a .352 BABIP, which is also seventh in the majors. 
• Marsh is 0-for-9 in the series vs. the Marlins so far but went 4-for-12 with 3 runs, a HR, and 3 RBI in the three-game series in June. 
• Marsh’s 21.8% line-drive percentage is second on the team and in the top 50 of all players.
• The former Angels second-round draft pick went 2-for-3 vs. Gusto back in June, scoring a run.

Add Brandon Marsh to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Marlins SS Otto Lopez vs. Phillies: 0.5 Hits

• Lopez leads the majors with a .328 batting average and ranks second in WAR at 5.3. 
• The star infielder had 3 hits in the opener on Monday night vs. the Phillies and has hits in six of nine games since the break. 
• Lopez’s .361 BABIP is fifth in the majors, as is his speed score of 7.5.
• The Marlins' leadoff hitter has 4 hits in 18 career at-bats, including a double, vs. his former teammate Jesus Luzardo. That includes a 1-for-4 night back in June.

Add Otto Lopez to your PrizePicks Lineup now. 

Make Phillies vs. Marlins Picks on PrizePicks

Can the Phillies salvage the finale of the three-game series in Miami, or will the Marlins complete an unlikely sweep after entering the series on a huge skid?  

Don’t wait until lock — make your Phillies vs. Marlins picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on Wednesday's MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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