The NFL season gets underway on Wednesday night at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC with a Super Bowl LX rematch between the reigning champion Seattle Seahawks and AFC representative New England Patriots from Lumen Field in Seattle.
The Seahawks enter this one as 3.5-point favorites on the spread, returning a 1.5x payout on PrizePicks if they win.
It’s the third time in NFL history that the season has begun with the same two teams it ended with, as the Broncos and Panthers started the 2016 season after meeting in the previous Super Bowl and the Chiefs and Vikings did it in 1970.
Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction and picks for Wednesday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and PrizePicks player projections for Week 1.
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Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Wednesday, September 9
Seattle comes into the season looking to become the 10th team/ninth franchise to repeat as champs. The 2025 version finished eighth in total per-game offensive yardage (351.4) and sixth on defense (285.9) while leading the league in scoring defense (17.2 PPG).
Per FTN, the 2025 Seattle Seahawks finished the Super Bowl with the fourth-highest DVOA rating of all time (since 1977).
The Seahawks ranked 10th in rushing offense (123.3 yards per game) but just 22nd in rush EPA per play (-0.076) before losing leading rusher Kenneth Walker III to the Chiefs in the offseason. They also won't have No. 2 RB Zach Charbonnet ready after his postseason ACL injury.
Rookie Jadarian Price, a first-round pick from Notre Dame, will be the feature back behind QB Sam Darnold. Darnold returns after becoming the first QB in NFL history to lead back-to-back 13+ win seasons on two different teams.
Seattle has a new play-caller in 2026 after losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to Las Vegas. New OC Brian Fleury takes over, dialing up plays in the NFL for the first time.
The Patriots are coming off a surprise 14-3 campaign that included a record 12th trip to the Super Bowl. Behind MVP runner-up QB Drake Maye, they had the second-highest scoring offense (28.8 PPG) in the NFL and led the league in passing yards per play (8.48). They also owned the highest EPA/play at 0.155.
Maye and the Patriots traded for All-Pro WR A.J. Brown in the offseason, replacing Stefon Diggs as the main WR in New England. Brown could add a new dynamic to the offense, as he's a far more effective vertical presence than Diggs at this stage in both players' careers.
A year after playing a strength of schedule to the tune of a .429 winning percentage — including each win coming vs. teams with losing records — the Pats now face the sixth-hardest schedule. Trips to Seattle, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Kansas City make for a tough slate.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 9
The Seahawks enter Wednesday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Patriots, returning a 1.5x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
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Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction on Over/Under – 9/9/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction on the over/under for Wednesday, September 9.
- The Patriots and Seahawks finished with two of the top four scoring defenses last season, with Seattle at the top and the Patriots being fourth after allowing 18.8 PPG.
- Among the many top defensive stats for the Super Bowl champs, they also finished first in FTN's defensive DVOA metric and are projected to be second in 2026 behind only the Los Angeles Rams.
- While the Patriots were second in the NFL in scoring, they didn't face a single defense that ended the regular season in the top 12 of total points ceded.
- In the postseason, all four defenses the Patriots squared off against (Broncos, Texans, Seahawks, and Chargers) were of the top-10 variety, and New England was held to 16.8 PPG and 248.0 YPG.
- The last eight NFL Kickoff games have averaged a total of 41.3 points, with only three of the 16 teams reaching 30+ points.
Make your Patriots vs. Seahawks picks now for Wednesday’s NFL game.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Picks, Player Stats for Week 1 on PrizePicks: 9/9/26
Here are the top Patriots vs. Seahawks picks to target on Wednesday, September 9. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Sam Darnold, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and QB Drake Maye.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold vs. Patriots: 228.5 Pass Yards
- Darnold just passed for fewer than 225 yards in eight of 17 regular-season games and two of three postseason contests, including 202 yards in the Super Bowl.
- In the first 10 weeks of 2025, he led the league with a 77.9 QBR and 9.3 yards per dropback. From Week 11 on, his efficiency plummeted. He owned a 35.3 QBR (27th) and 6.3 yards per dropback (15th).
- Giveaways were a problem during the regular season; Darnold's 3.5% turnover rate was the worst among all QBR-qualifying QBs.
- Against top-10 defenses, Darnold mustered just 5 TDs and 7 INTs with a 75.3 passer rating.
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Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Patriots: 82.5 Rec Yards
- Smith-Njigba reached 84+ yards in 14 of 17 regular season games last season, averaging a league-high 105.5 YPG.
- The NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year recorded a whopping nine 100-yard games, two more than any other player.
- JSN saw 10+ targets in 11 of 20 games, including 10 in the Super Bowl vs. the Patriots.
- The Ohio State product also led the NFL in target share (35.8%) and was second in total EPA among WRs at 137.72, per SumerSports.
Add Jaxon Smith-Njigba to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Seahawks: 60.9% Completion Percentage
- Maye completed more than 60% of his passes in 16 of 17 regular-season games and also did so in the the Super Bowl.
- Maye’s 72.0% completion percentage last year led the NFL.
- Among all active players with at least 750 pass attempts, the North Carolina product has the highest career completion clip at 69.8%.
- The MVP runner-up's 0.313 EPA/play across the 2025-26 campaign was tops of all signal-callers in the sport.
Add Drake Maye to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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We have a Super Bowl rematch to begin the long-awaited 2026 season. Can the Patriots get revenge for their loss, or will the Seahawks complete step one towards a repeat title?
Don't wait until kickoff — make your Patriots vs. Seahawks picks on PrizePicks now for Week 1 and earn real money if you're right.
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