Week 3 features a loaded nine-game schedule for 1:00 p.m. ET games, including the New England Patriots (1-1) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. According to PrizePicks, the Jaguars are slight 2.5-point favorites on the spread for today’s matchup on CBS.
Following Week 1’s 13-10 loss vs. the Seahawks, the Patriots bounced back with a dominant 20-3 win over the Steelers in Week 2. Jacksonville torched the Browns 34-10 to open 2026 and suffered a 20-13 loss vs. the Broncos last week.
In a matchup between potential AFC playoff teams, let’s break down our Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction and player picks for PrizePicks.
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Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27
According to PrizePicks, the Patriots have a 1.47x payout to qualify for the playoffs, compared to the Jaguars’ 1.58x payout. Competing for a Super Bowl is more far-fetched, featuring a 16.66x payout for New England and 22.22x for Jacksonville to win Super Bowl LXI.
Still, these are two clear potential playoff teams, providing a must-see matchup for Sunday afternoon. The Patriots have leaned on their defense by allowing 8.0 PPG (first) compared to scoring 15.0 PPG (27th). Meanwhile, the Jaguars have posted 23.5 PPG (15th) while allowing 15.0 PPG (sixth) through two games.
New England made a major offseason acquisition by trading for WR A.J. Brown, but he suffered a high ankle sprain and finished with just a 43.7% snap rate in Week 1. Brown is on injured reserve with a potential six-to-eight-week absence, though positive news arrived this week.
Of course, Brown was supposed to be the piece to transform this offense. After being frustrated with only 4.1 yards per play and 3 turnovers in Week 1, the Pats’ offense produced an improved 6.2 yards per play and 327 yards in Week 2, but ball security concerns are still front and center following 2 more turnovers.
New England WR Romeo Doubs, who was another offseason add, rose to the occasion in Brown’s absence, producing 3 catches for 96 receiving yards a week ago. Until Brown returns, this offense could lean on the one-two punch of RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson.
For the Jaguars, the hype was running rampant after Week 1’s dominant 34-10 win over the Browns. QB Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 245 passing yards and 4 TDs, was even tabbed as a potential MVP contender. However, the offense came back to Earth with 13 points, 268 yards, 4.9 yards per play, and 1 turnover in last week’s 20-13 loss in Denver.
According to RBSDM, Lawrence posted 0.716 adjusted EPA per play (second) in Week 1, followed by -0.106 (27th) vs. the Broncos. Which version of T-Law will show in Week 3? The Patriots’ defense is another difficult test, sporting -0.175 EPA per play (third) and a 38.7% success rate (seventh) allowed.
However, New England has some injuries on defense that could clearly impact the pass rush. After being hampered by a knee injury late in the 2025 season, OLB Harold Landry III is set to miss a couple of more games on the PUP list. OLB Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder) is also out on Sunday, while starting S Craig Woodson (shoulder) is questionable.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27
The Jaguars are a 2.5-point home favorite with a 1.58x payout to win outright vs. the Patriots in Week 3, per PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for the Patriots vs. Jaguars on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under.
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PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction on Spread – 9/27/26
New England’s pass rush is a clear worry going into this matchup. According to ESPN, the Patriots have a 50% pass rush win rate that ranks 17th in the NFL.
As mentioned, Harold Landry III is still out, and he produced 8.5 sacks a season ago. Through two games, Dre’Mont Jones’ 7 pressures leads the team, per Pro Football Focus.
The front seven’s success could firmly depend on DT Christian Barmore, who boasts 5 pressures and an 87.5 pass rush grade via PFF. Rookie OLB Gabe Jacas should see elevated snaps today, and he carries 4 pressures over 44 pass rush snaps.
Jacksonville has given up only a 5.45% sack rate (10th-lowest), and Trevor Lawrence has completed 31 of 39 passing attempts (79.5%) with an 84.6% adjusted completion percentage when kept clean in the pocket.
Meanwhile, Patriots QB Drake Maye has limited options at wide receiver, and he’s facing a strong Jags pass rush with the likes of EDGEs Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Hines-Allen and Walker each have 2 sacks, and Walker has been especially dominant with 9 pressures in two games.
New England has struggled with 2.5 turnovers per game (29th), and the Jaguars force 1.5 takeaways per contest (seventh). In 2025, Jacksonville was tied with the Texans for a league-high 1.8 takeaways per game. Pressure from Walker and Hines-Allen could only elevate Maye’s 5.5% turnover-worthy play rate — which is tied for the fifth-highest mark among qualifying QBs.
In a matchup between quality QBs, the pass rushes should have a big impact, and the Jaguars carry a clear advantage in that department. Furthermore, the Patriots have a 72% run block win rate (22nd) and a 29.4% rush success rate (31st), putting more pressure on Maye to carry the offense.
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Patriots vs. Jaguars Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/27/26
Here are the top Patriots vs. Jaguars picks to target on Sunday, September 27. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB TreVeyon Henderson and WR Parker Washington.
Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. Jaguars: 41.5 Rush Yards
- In his season debut last week, TreVeyon Henderson dominated the workload, partially due to a fumble from Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson totaled 17 rush snaps and 16 carries compared to Stevenson’s 7 and 6 totals.
- Henderson racked up 76 rushing yards and 4.8 yards per carry, but most of that success was from a 39-yard rushing TD. In fact, the second-year tailback had 2 rushing attempts going for 10+ yards.
- The Jaguars allow a 10.6% explosive rate against the run (10th-highest), per StatsiQ. All it takes is one play thanks to Henderson’s elite speed, as we saw in Week 2.
- The Patriots leaned on the run with 28 rushing attempts compared to 22 passing attempts last week. That workload could stay elevated against a strong pass rush, putting Henderson in a positive environment for this projection.
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Jaguars WR Parker Washington vs. Patriots: 66.5 Receiving Yards
- It’s time to regard Parker Washington as a true WR1, as he logged 7 catches for 98 receiving yards on 12 targets vs. the Broncos. That followed Week 1’s 5 receptions for 83 yards and 1 TD.
- According to SumerSports, Washington’s 36.7% target share is second behind Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 44.0%. Further, Washington carries an absurd 15.50 average depth of target (aDOT), and his 3.93 yards per route run is third among wideouts with at least 25 routes run.
- Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez is a daunting one-on-one matchup, but PlayerProfiler gives Washington a 45.5% slot snap rate. He still found a way to total 12 targets and 98 receiving yards against the Broncos — who have a secondary featuring CB Patrick Surtain II.
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The Jaguars enter Sunday’s matchup as favorites, and with good reason, thanks to an offense carrying a more favorable matchup. The Patriots continue to carry a reputation of struggling against quality teams. Will New England change that narrative by winning on the road in Week 3?
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