Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction, Spread, Week 8 NFL Picks – 11/1/26

The Patriots head to Miami to face the Dolphins on Sunday, November 1. New England is coming off a tough loss to the Bears on Thursday Night Football, whereas Miami got its first win of the year last week vs. the Jets.

Ahead of the 4:25 p.m. ET bout on CBS, the Pats are favored by 6.5 points on PrizePicks.

Below, we’ll break down our Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction and picks for NFL Week 8, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Patriots vs. Dolphins picks on PrizePicks now! 

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8 – Sunday, November 1

The Patriots are 6.5-point road favorites against the Dolphins on Sunday, per PrizePicks, returning a 1.26x payout with a victory.

Here are the full payouts for the Patriots vs. Dolphins on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

All stats are via NFL Next Gen Stats, FTN Fantasy, and PFF unless otherwise noted.

Early in the Patriots’ season, it looked like it could be a disappointing year for a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance. They lost two of their first three games, and the offense was dreadful, ranking dead last in points per game (10.0).

The offensive inefficiencies largely stemmed from QB Drake Maye. Expectations were high for Maye heading into 2026 after he finished second in MVP voting the previous year. In Weeks 1-3, he was 18th in completion rate (63.7%), 24th in passing yards (585), and had the most INTs (6).

Maye's performance has improved dramatically, as he’s been one of the league’s best QBs recently. In Weeks 4-7, he led the sport in passing TDs (12) while sitting second in passing yards (1,199) success rate (55.3%). He's doing it with multiple key players hurt, too.

WR A.J. Brown was the club's biggest offseason acquisition, but he missed four games after suffering an ankle sprain in Week 1. After returning for two contests, he'll miss this week’s matchup with a knee injury. New England’s WR room has been decimated with Brown out and Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs on IR.

Maye is also playing without several starting offensive linemen, including T Marcus Bryant (out for this game) and guards Alijah Vera-Tucker, Mike Onwenu, and Greg Van Roten (on injured reserve).

To avoid an upset, the Patriots may need to rely on the run game while utilizing TEs and RBs in the passing game. The Dolphins allow the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs (276) and the sixth-most to TEs (448).

There aren’t many positives for the Dolphins. They're well below average on both sides of the ball, ranking 30th in PPG (16.3) on offense and 25th on defense (26.2).

They signed QB Malik Willis to lead the offense, but he’s struggled, ranking 23rd in passing success rate (42.1%) and 32nd in completion percentage (57.2%).

If the Dolphins want a big win, it may stem from RB Ollie Gordon II. He's scored a TD in each of his last three games and gone over 100 yards in two of them.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction on Spread – 11/1/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Patriots vs. Dolphins pick against the spread for Sunday, November 1.

• The Patriots’ offensive line has struggled to protect Maye, ranking 12th in sacks allowed (13). However, this could be a favorable opportunity, as the Dolphins are last in sacks this season (6).
• The Pats have done well at containing their opponents, ranking ninth in scoring defense (20.4 PPG).
• The Patriots have been highly effective on third down, ranking sixth in conversion rate since Week 5 (47.0%). The Dolphins are 31st in opponent third-down conversion rate (52.1%).
• New England excels at sustaining drives, ranking 11th in three-and-out rate (14.7%). The Dolphins struggle to get their defense off the field, sitting 31st in the same stat on defense (12.3%).
• The Patriots’ offense is eighth in explosive play rate (10.3%); the Dolphins are 22nd in explosives allowed (10.2%).

Lock in your Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction on PrizePicks!

Patriots vs. Dolphins Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/1/26

Here are the top Patriots vs. Dolphins picks to target on Sunday, November 1. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Drake Maye and RB Ollie Gordon.

Patriots QB Drake Maye vs. Dolphins: 238.5 Pass Yards

• Maye draws a nice matchup against a Miami defense that's 19th in passing yards allowed per game (227.5).
• Maye ranks fifth in the league in EPA per dropback (+0.23). Miami is dead last in EPA allowed per dropback (+0.31).
• The 2025 MVP runner-up could have a clean pocket for much of the game, as Miami ranks 26th in the NFL in pressure rate (20.4%). When not pressured, Maye is seventh in EPA/dropback (+0.44).
• Maye is only 17th in catchable throw rate (70.7%), although the Dolphins allow the league’s highest catchable pass rate (81.8%).

Add Drake Maye + Patriots to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon II vs. Patriots: 62.5 Rush Yards

• Gordon has been one of the league’s best RBs since taking over for the injured De’Von Achane, ranking 11th in rushing yards since Week 4 (291) and second in YPC (5.6).
• Gordon could see plenty of opportunities; Miami has the highest rushing play rate in the NFL (50.5%).
• The Dolphins might be able to run the ball successfully, with the Patriots ranking 22nd in EPA allowed per carry (-0.08).
• Gordon sits third in yards after contact since Week 4 and now faces a New England defense that cedes 1.9 YAC per carry, good for 15th.

Add Ollie Gordon + Dolphins to cover the spread your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Patriots vs. Dolphins Picks on PrizePicks

The Patriots have some ground to make up if they want to get back into the Super Bowl. Can they overcome a Miami team that's fresh off its first victory of 2026?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Patriots vs. Dolphins picks on PrizePicks now for Week 8 and earn real money if you're right.

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