Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, August 3

The Arizona Diamondbacks (59-53) and San Diego Padres (58-54) will meet in the first game of their four-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix on Monday, August 3 at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks enter as home favorites, returning a 1.81x payout if they win, via PrizePicks. ‍

The teams have split six previous games this season, including both a four-game series in San Diego in July and a two-game set in Arizona in April. 

Below, we’ll break down our Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction and picks for Monday's MLB showdown, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your picks for Padres vs. Diamondbacks on PrizePicks now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 3

The series is a matchup of two teams battling for Wild Card spots in the NL, as the Los Angeles Dodgers are running away with the NL West. Arizona, winners of four of five, currently holds a Wild Card spot at 59-53. 

The Padres, winners of eight of the past nine, have played their way back into the Wild Card race and sit a game behind the Phillies and Diamondbacks. The Padres ended the first half of the season at 48-48 and are 8-4 since.   

They'll now send Michael King to the mound for game one of this series. King went at least 5 innings in each of his five July starts, allowing 2 ER or less in four of them. He enters with an xFIP of 4.42, third-best among Padres starters.

Arizona will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound. Pfaadt has been used as both a reliever and a starter this year, but since getting back into the starting lineup in late June, he is 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 2.86 FIP.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, August 3

The Diamondbacks enter Monday's game as favorites, returning a 1.81x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Play the Padres vs. Diamondbacks winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction on Over/Under – 8/3/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction on over/under for Monday, August 3.

Lock in your Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction on PrizePicks.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Diamondbacks have played to the under in 55.7% of their games, tied with the Phillies for the second-highest rate in baseball (only the Cardinals have a higher rate). That includes six of the last nine outings and 15 of 25 since July 4.
• Arizona has struggled in the power numbers, ranking 28th in home runs (107), 22nd in slugging (.392), and 23rd in wRC+ (93). 
• While not as often as the D-Backs, the Padres have also played more unders than overs, with 60 of their 102 games going under the listed total. 
• San Diego’s power numbers are slightly better than Arizona’s, as the Padres are 20th in home runs (121) and 19th in wRC+ (96) but 24th in slugging (.384) and 25th in overall BA (.235).
• The Diamondbacks and Padres are tied for 24th in BABIP at .279.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 8/3/26

Here are the top Padres vs. Diamondbacks picks to target on Monday, August 3. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SP Brandon Pfaadt and 3B Manny Machado.

Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt vs. Padres: 2.5 ER Allowed

• Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt is 5-0 in his past six starts dating back to returning to the rotation on June 30. 
• In those six starts, he didn't allow more than 2 ER in any of them. In fact, going back further, Pfaadt has held opponents to 2 or fewer ER in 14 consecutive appearances. 
• Pfaadt’s 1.85 ERA since June 30 is 12th-best in MLB, and his 1.06 BB/9 is sixth. 
• On the season, Pfaadt has allowed more than 2 ERs in four of 22 appearances, and three of those were his first three appearances of the season. 

Add Brandon Pfaadt to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Padres 3B Manny Machado vs. Diamondbacks: 5.5 Fantasy Score

• The Padres' star slugger leads the team with 23 home runs and 65 RBI in 109 games after finishing all of last season with 27 homers. 
• Machado’s 53 wRC are second on the team and in the top 50 in the majors. 
• In his career, Machado has a HR and 5 RBI, batting .333 (7-for-21) against Pfaadt.
• The former Oriole’s bat speed is 74.7 mph, ranked in the 79th percentile, while his average exit velo is 90.5 mph (72nd percentile).

Add Manny Machado to your PrizePicks Lineup now. 

Make Padres vs. Diamondbacks Picks on PrizePicks

Can the Diamondbacks hold on to the Wild Card spot they currently occupy, or will the Padres continue their hot streak and strengthen their push toward a postseason berth? 

Don’t wait until lock — make your Padres vs. Diamondbacks picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.