The MLB Wild Card concludes on Thursday with three winner-take-all contests. The middle showdown takes place in the Windy City, as the Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres in Game 3. First pitch is set for 5:08 p.m. ET on ESPN at Wrigley Field.
Check out our Padres vs. Cubs prediction for a matchup in which the winner advances to the NLDS to face the Milwaukee Brewers.
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Padres vs. Cubs Prediction, Picks for NL Wild Card
Runs have been at a premium over the first two games of this Wild Card series. Chicago captured Game 1 on Tuesday, 3-1, but San Diego stayed alive with a 3-0 shutout on Wednesday.
San Diego 3B Manny Machado’s 2-run blast in the fifth inning gave the Padres some breathing room, while the San Diego bullpen held the Cubs to just 1 hit over 5.1 innings.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have scored the first run in each of the first two games against the Cubs. San Diego couldn’t generate much offense in Game 1 following SS Xander Bogaerts’ RBI double in the second inning.
However, San Diego led off Game 2 with a pair of singles from RF Fernando Tatis, Jr. and 1B Luis Arraez. Following a double-steal, CF Jackson Merrill drove in Tatis on a sacrifice fly to get the Padres on the board.
Machado’s homer four innings later — combined with a masterful effort by the Padres’ pen — kept the door open for a third trip to the NLDS in four seasons.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are seeking their first playoff series victory since 2017. Chicago tries to avoid a third Wild Card round elimination at Wrigley Field dating back to 2018.
Through two games, the Cubs have scored their 3 runs on a pair of solo home runs and a sacrifice fly. LF Ian Happ has struggled at the plate, going 1-for-8 with 4 Ks, while CF Pete Crow-Armstrong has been silenced with an 0-for-6 showing to go with 5 Ks.
Padres vs. Cubs Picks & MLB DFS
Padres P Yu Darvish vs. Cubs Projection: 3.5 Strikeouts
- Darvish has recorded at least 4 strikeouts in each of his last five starts.
- The right-hander did not face his former team this season, but has limited current Cubs batters to a .194 average.
- Darvish posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career at 23.0%, but his curveball has been his most effective pitch, responsible for 18 strikeouts.
- Happ and SS Dansby Swanson have each struck out 6 times and are a combined 5-for-32 against Darvish lifetime.
- Darvish has topped the 90-pitch mark just once in 15 starts this season and has not pitched past the fifth inning in five of six road starts.
Cubs P Jameson Taillon vs. Padres Projection: 2.5 Strikeouts
- Taillon has been more effective in daytime starts this season, limiting batters to a .199 batting average and recording a 2.67 ERA.
- In seven of 10 starts at Wrigley Field this season, Taillon has posted at least 4 strikeouts, including six outings with 6+ strikeouts.
- The San Diego trio of Tatis, Arraez, and Machado have combined to bat 5-for-23 against Taillon, but the right-hander has recorded only 1 strikeout.
- Taillon doesn’t possess a high strikeout rate at 18.9%, but he also doesn’t deliver many free passes, walking opponents at a 5.2% rate, ranking him in the 93rd percentile in MLB.
Cubs DH Kyle Tucker vs. Padres Projection: 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
- Since the start of September, Tucker is batting a dreadful 4-for-26 with 1 extra-base hit in this span.
- Tucker missed several weeks in September due to a calf strain, as he finished with at least 20 home runs for the fifth straight season.
- Tucker has stayed below this projection in four consecutive games, picking up 1 hit in this span.
- The former Astro hasn’t been able to solve Darvish in his career, going 1-for-6.
- In eight games against the Padres this season, Tucker has eclipsed this projection three times.
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Three teams will be eliminated from the MLB playoffs on Thursday. In Chicago, the Cubs and Padres battle to see who will punch their ticket to the NLDS.
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