Padres vs. Cubs Prediction, Picks: Wild Card Kicks Off With Matthew Boyd and Ian Happ

For the first time in what seems like forever, things are about to get real on the North Side of the Chicago.

The National League Wild Card round starts Tuesday afternoon as the Cubs host the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of their best-of-three series. First pitch at Wrigley Field is set for 3:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be seen on ABC.

Check out our Padres vs. Cubs prediction for this matchup between a pair of clubs that each won 90+ games.

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Padres vs. Cubs Prediction, Picks for NL Wild Card

The Padres are making their third appearance in the Wild Card round since the expanded playoffs began in 2022. San Diego has advanced in this round twice, knocking out the Mets in 2022 and sweeping the Braves last season.

The Cubbies are making their first playoff trip since the COVID-shortened season of 2020. The last time Chicago qualified for the postseason in a 162-game campaign was way back in 2018, when they were bounced by the Rockies.

San Diego Padres

The Padres had their opportunities to slay the dragon and overtake the Dodgers for the NL West lead late in the season. 

On August 23, San Diego defeated Los Angeles at Petco Park to take a one-game advantage in the division. The Padres lost the next day in the series finale and never sniffed first place the rest of the season.

San Diego finished on a 7-1 run to clinch consecutive 90+ win seasons for the first time in franchise history.

Chicago Cubs 

The Cubs got over the playoff hump in manager Craig Counsell's second season in the dugout.

Chicago led Milwaukee by one game atop the NL Central at the All-Star break, but the Brewers went 41-25 in the second half of the season and took the division title.

The Cubbies finished as the top Wild Card team in the National League, and is now looking for its first playoff series victory since 2017.

Padres vs. Cubs Picks & MLB DFS

Cubs P Matthew Boyd vs. Padres Projection: 4 Strikeouts

• The Padres struck out the fewest times among NL teams this season against opposing starting pitchers (671).
• Since August 19, the veteran lefty has recorded 3 or less Ks in each of his past four home starts.
• Boyd posted a career-high in wins this season with 14, but also compiled his lowest K rate since 2021 at 21.4%, ranking in the 41st percentile.
• San Diego is tied for 13th in MLB in drawing walks at 8.4%, as Boyd ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate at 5.8%.
• The top two strikeout victims for Boyd on the Padres are SS Xander Bogaerts and 3B Manny Machado, who have whiffed 3 times apiece against the southpaw.

Padres CF Jackson Merrill vs. Cubs Projection: 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

• Merrill saw a slight dip in his numbers during his sophomore campaign after finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2024.
• The outfielder dropped in xWOBA, xBA, and xSLG this season, as he dealt with various injuries that limited him to 115 games.
• In his career, Merrill is 5-for-20 against current Cubs pitchers, including 0-for-3 against Boyd.
• The 22-year old closed the season on a high note, eclipsing this projection in five of the final seven games. 

Cubs LF Ian Happ vs. Padres Projection: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Happ put together his best month of the season in September, batting .287, along with an .892 OPS.
• The 31-year-old posted a .360 average against the Padres this season, his third-highest against any team in 2025. In all six games against San Diego, he recorded at least one hit.
• In six of his last nine home outings, Happ finished with a fantasy score of higher than 6.
• The 2022 All Star compiled an exceptional 13.1% walk rate, ranking him in the 93rd percentile in MLB.
• In his career against Padres P Nick Pivetta, Happ is 3-for-10 with 6 strikeouts.

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The playoffs get going today on the North Side of Chicago, as the Cubs look to grab the first game against the Padres in the Wild Card round.

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