In Week 9, the Green Bay Packers (5-3) will hit the road to take on the New England Patriots (5-3) at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 8. The Patriots enter as 3.5-point home favorites, and they would return a 1.56x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.
The Packers are coming off a 27-19 home win over the Carolina Panthers, while the Patriots just got a 24-19 road victory against the Miami Dolphins. Both teams have bounced back from slow starts to the season and have each won four of their last five games.
Below, we’ll break down our Packers vs. Patriots prediction and picks for NFL Week 9, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
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Packers vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NFL Week 9 – Sunday, November 8
The Patriots enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point home favorites against the Packers, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $156 on a $100 entry if you're right.
Here are the full payouts for the Packers vs. Patriots game. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Packers vs. Patriots prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!
Even with RB Josh Jacobs back, Green Bay’s offense has continued to revolve around QB Jordan Love and the passing game. In the team’s Week 8 win over Carolina, Love completed 30 of 41 passes for 288 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT, whereas the run game mustered just 66 yards and a TD on 26 carries.
For the year, the Packers rank second in passing YPG (288.4) but are dead last in rushing YPG (60.6). Jacobs has done little to boost their rushing output, as he’s averaged 37.5 rushing YPG and 2.3 rushing YPA through two outings. The one-dimensional nature of this offense has left it averaging a mediocre 21.4 PPG.
The good news for Green Bay is that its defense has performed quite well, ranking 10th in both PPG (20.5) and YPG (314.9). After giving up 35+ points in two of their first three games, the Packers’ D has held its last five opponents to 20 points or fewer.
This Green Bay defense could prove to be a good test for Patriots QB Drake Maye, who’s accounted for 3+ TDs in five straight games. Although he put up a less gaudy line in last week’s win over Miami, he completed 16 of 20 passes for 199 yards and 2 TDs while tacking on another TD with his legs.
After struggling mightily in his first three games, Maye has helped this offense average 29.6 PPG over its last five matchups.
Injuries continue to be an issue for this offense, though, as they’re still without WR A.J. Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, and RB TreVeyon Henderson. TE Hunter Henry and WR Mack Hollins are among the players who are questionable.
Like the Packers, the Patriots have also held their own defensively, allowing the 11th-fewest PPG (20.3). However, they’re roughly league average in passing YPG (217.3), so this might not be as daunting a matchup for a pass-heavy Green Bay offense.
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Packers vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 9 – 11/8/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Packers vs. Patriots prediction on the spread for Sunday, November 8.
- The Packers’ defense ranks seventh in EPA/play allowed (-0.044), per RBSDM. They’re also fourth in defensive DVOA, according to FTN.
- Maye struggled mightily in Weeks 1 to 3, throwing 1 TD and 6 INTs. Those poor outings came against the Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Those teams’ defenses all rank inside the top seven in both EPA/play allowed and DVOA.
- While Maye has noticeably improved in the weeks since, four of the five defenses he’s faced rank 20th or worse in EPA/play allowed and DVOA.
- New England’s offense is thin on weapons, with Brown, Doubs, and Henderson all out, and several other players are banged up.
- The Patriots’ D ranks just 16th in dropback EPA/play allowed (0.081) and 21st in dropback success rate (47.2%).
- Green Bay has the league’s highest passing play percentage (65.7%), which coincides with having the second-highest pass rate over expected (+6.5), per Sharp Football Analysis.
- The Packers are 5-0 against the spread over their last five games.
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Packers vs. Patriots Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/8/26
Here are the top Packers vs. Patriots picks to target on Sunday, November 8. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Matthew Golden and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Packers WR Matthew Golden vs. Patriots: 67.5 Receiving Yards
- Golden is averaging 77.4 receiving yards per game this season. He’s reached 79+ receiving yards in five of his eight games.
- He’s seen double-digit targets five times, which includes seeing 12+ targets in three straight weeks.
- Due to the pass-heavy nature of this Packers offense, Love is tied for the league lead in pass attempts per game (39.0).
- According to PFF, the Patriots’ defense uses man coverage at the fourth-highest clip (43.3%). Golden boasts a 37.8% target share and averages 3.11 yards per route run versus man.
Add Matthew Golden + Packers to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Packers: 14 Rush Attempts
- In the two games Henderson has been inactive this season, Stevenson has logged 18 and 19 carries.
- Stevenson has also seen a bump in snaps when Henderson is sidelined, earning an 85.1% snap share in Week 1 and a 76.3% snap share last week, per PlayerProfiler.
- According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers are tied for the second-most TDs allowed to RBs (10)
- Stevenson has gotten 2+ red zone carries in four straight games, per FantasyPros.
- New England has the NFL’s eighth-highest rushing play percentage (48.4%).
Add Rhamondre Stevenson + Patriots to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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The Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots both enter this matchup with some momentum following slow starts to the year. Which team will get a statement win on Sunday?
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