The Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians game is set for a first pitch at 6:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 16, with Cleveland returning a 1.75x payout with an outright win, via PrizePicks.
Both the Guardians and Orioles look to get on track after each dropping the final two games of their recent series. Cleveland captured the first game at St. Louis before losing the next two, while Baltimore rallied in the opener against Arizona, then fell in consecutive outings.
Below, we'll break down our Orioles vs. Guardians prediction and picks for Thursday's MLB game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Orioles vs. Guardians on PrizePicks now.
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Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, April 16
Cleveland (10-9) and Baltimore (9-9) are both hovering around the .500 mark, but these squads have taken different routes to get there.
The Guardians enter this contest coming off consecutive losses for the first time this season. Cleveland owned a spectacular 7-0 mark off a defeat before Wednesday’s 5-3 setback in St. Louis.
Baltimore has lost at least two games in a row three times in 2026 but also possesses a pair of three-game winning streaks. The O’s allowed 3 runs in the top of the 10th inning in Wednesday’s 8-5 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, their first setback in a home finale this season.
Cleveland grabbed four of seven matchups in 2025, including three of four at Progressive Field. Here’s a quirky stat: the Guardians have won nine consecutive series openers against the Orioles since 2021.
Orioles vs. Guardians Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, April 16
The Guardians enter Thursday’s game as a favorite against the Orioles, returning a 1.75x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Orioles vs. Guardians game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (2.56x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (2x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Orioles 2x | Guardians 1.75x
Play the Orioles vs. Guardians winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction on Winner – 4/16/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Orioles vs. Guardians prediction on the winner for Thursday, April 16.
Lock in your Orioles vs. Guardians prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Guardians have played only six home games so far but have limited opponents to 2 or fewer runs four times.
- Through three starts, Orioles P Shane Baz is allowing the highest xBA of his career at .252, while opponents are hitting .529 against his four-seam fastball.
- The Orioles rank second-to-last in at-bats against left-handed pitchers with 107 but hit .271 when facing them, good for sixth in MLB.
- Baz dropped a pair of starts to Cleveland last season as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. He allowed 5 earned runs in 11 innings but managed 15 strikeouts.
- The Guardians have trailed through five innings once in six home games. P Parker Messick allowed 1 run to the Cubs as they led Cleveland 1-0 on April 5, then the Guardians rallied back for a 6-5 victory.
Orioles vs. Guardians Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/16/26
Here are top Orioles vs. Guardians picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, April 16. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include P Parker Messick and 1B Pete Alonso.
Guardians P Parker Messick vs. Orioles Projection: 5.5 Strikeouts
- The southpaw is producing an outstanding 37% chase rate, which sits in the 91st percentile.
- Six of the last seven opposing pitchers against Baltimore finished below their strikeout projection.
- This is the highest strikeout projection for the former Florida State standout, who was listed at 4.5 strikeouts in each of his first three outings.
- Messick has faced two of the top three teams in barrel rate (Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves). The Orioles rank 28th at 6.1%.
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Orioles 1B Pete Alonso vs. Guardians Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Alonso continues to be one of the league leaders in hard-hit rate at 58.1%, sitting in the 96th percentile.
- His offensive production has slipped since his move to Baltimore, owning an xBA of .225 and a barrel rate of 7%. Last season with the New York Mets, Alonso’s barrel rate sat at a career-best 18.9%.
- In 13 April contests, Alonso has posted only two multi-hit games and is 2-for-25 in six road contests.
- The Polar Bear has finished below this projection in nine of the past 12 outings.
Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Orioles vs. Guardians Picks on PrizePicks
Baltimore travels to Cleveland for a four-game series with both teams trying to snap their mini losing skids. Who will get back on track tonight in the opener at Progressive Field?
Don’t wait until lock — make your Orioles vs. Guardians picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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