#11 Oklahoma vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks Today – 9/12/26

As one of the top matchups of college football on Saturday, September 12, the #11 Oklahoma Sooners visit the Michigan Wolverines, who come off a controversial win. According to PrizePicks, Oklahoma is a 4.5-point favorite on the spread for Saturday.

Ahead of today’s 12:00 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, the Sooners come in rolling following Week 1’s 51-0 win over UTEP. The Wolverines, on the other hand, escaped with a 1-point win as 28.5-point favorites vs. Western Michigan last week.  

These teams are certainly headed in opposite directions, providing an interesting avenue for our Oklahoma vs. Michigan prediction and player picks for projections on PrizePicks.

Make your Oklahoma vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks now! 

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#11 Oklahoma vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NCAAF Week 2

In head coach Kyle Whittingham’s first game at Michigan, the Wolverines turned in an absolute dud vs. Western Michigan.

UM began the game with a picture-perfect 11-play, 75-yard touchdown march on the opening drive. The Wolverines proceeded to do absolutely nothing over the remainder of the game, trailing 12-7 when the clock hit zero. 

This is where the controversy struck, as the referees decided the clock didn’t expire following QB Bryce Underwood’s incompletion, rewarding one last play. Michigan needed a miracle, and it got just that on a 47-yard passing TD to WR JJ Buchanan as the clock expired, for real this time, leading to the 13-12 win.

The Big Ten released a statement shortly after the stunner, supporting the decision to give the Wolverines one more play. 

Controversy aside, UM has major issues, as it dropped out of the AP Top 25 Poll this week. The offense was sloppy, with 3 turnovers while converting only 3 of 10 third-down conversions. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma seems on track to have another nasty defense under head coach Brent Venables. The unit allowed only 16.5 PPG (95th percentile) and 4.1 yards per play (98th percentile) in 2025.

Despite returning only 55% of their production from last season (57th), via ESPN, the Sooners held UTEP scoreless while producing a 27.1% total havoc rating (90th percentile) to open 2026, per Fourth and Short.

Furthermore, OU QB John Mateer had a strong outing by tallying 225 passing yards, 13.2 yards per passing attempt, and 3 passing TDs. This is an offense returning 75% of its production from 2025 (third), giving Oklahoma an experienced unit to weather the storm in Ann Arbor’s Big House.

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Spread, Over/Under, Payouts – Saturday, September 12

Following Michigan’s near defeat as major favorites last week, Oklahoma heads into Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite for the spread on the road, per PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Oklahoma vs. Michigan on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under.

Make your Oklahoma vs. Michigan prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Prediction on Spread – 9/12/26

As 2025’s #1 overall recruit, QB Bryce Underwood began his Michigan career with sky-high expectations. He flashed at times in his true freshman season but ended the campaign with poor play — including 6.6 yards per passing attempt, 180.4 passing yards, 0.8 passing TDs, and 1.4 INTs per game over the final five games.

Pro Football Focus credited Underwood with 15 turnover-worthy plays in the 2025 season, and he tallied 5 in just last week’s game vs. Western Michigan. He didn’t log 1 big-time throw while posting 2 fumbles and 1 INT.

Following a dreadful performance with a 35.8 PFF player grade, it can’t get much worse for Underwood, but Oklahoma’s defense has something to say about that.

As mentioned, the Sooners generated a high havoc rate in Week 1, and that follows 2025’s 22.7% havoc rate that finished third nationally. This front seven still has some elite talent, anchored by DT David Stone, who is 12th overall in our 2027 NFL Draft prospect rankings.

Michigan gave up a concerning 16.7% havoc rate (25th percentile) against Western Michigan. However, this can be combatted by running the rock. 

Fourth and Short has two metrics for measuring a run game’s efficiency. Stuff rate looks at the percentage of rushing attempts stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, and line yards measures the average yards gained at the line of scrimmage (first 2.5 yards) to evaluate an offensive line’s efficiency.

The Wolverines were actually solid in both of these categories in Week 1, allowing only an 8.3% stuff rate (85th percentile) and averaging 3.4 line yards per attempt (67th percentile). UM posted a solid 4.2 yards per carry but finished with only 25 rushing attempts compared to 23 passing attempts.

Considering how Underwood performed, the Wolverines will likely look to live on the ground. That would be in line with Utah’s 59.6% rush-play rate (87th percentile) under Whittingham a season ago. 

On the other side of the ball, Michigan allowed only 221 total yards and 2.9 yards per rushing attempt to Western Michigan. This deflating performance was on the offense, not on the defense. 

Playing in front of a home crowd is certainly a big factor for UM; this paired with the ability to run the rock can help keep Mateer & Co. off the field, leading to a bleeding clock and low-scoring game.

Lock in your Oklahoma vs. Michigan prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/12/26

Saturday’s top Oklahoma vs. Michigan picks to target on PrizePicks include Lloyd Avant and Bryce Underwood.

Oklahoma RB Lloyd Avant vs. Michigan: 43.5 Rush Yards

• Oklahoma called a run-heavy game in Week 1, posting 39 carries to 19 passing attempts.
• Lloyd Avant took 15 rushing attempts compared to RB Xavier Robinson’s 7.
• PFF gave Avant an exceptional 3.73 yards after contact per carry in Week 1, fueling his 15 carries for 79 rushing yards (5.3 per attempt).
• While Michigan held Western Michigan to 2.9 yards per rushing attempt, its 18.2% stuff rate was in the 41st percentile.
• Oklahoma’s offensive line had a solid 73.4 run block grade (21st) in Week 1.

Add Lloyd Avant to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Michigan QB Bryce Underwood vs. Oklahoma: 32.5 Rush Yards

• In the 2025 season, Underwood averaged 30.2 rushing yards per game, but that was with a low volume of 6.8 carries per contest.
• As a rusher, the dual-threat QB has been efficient thanks to 4.5 yards per rushing attempt across his career.
• After last week’s 9 carries for 47 rushing yards (5.2 per carry), Michigan may look to keep it on the ground to avoid Oklahoma’s high havoc rate and Underwood’s turnover woes.
• Michigan offensive coordinator Jason Beck wasn’t afraid to run Utah QB Devon Dampier, who tallied 12.2 rushing attempts per game in the 2025 season.

Add Bryce Underwood to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Oklahoma vs. Michigan Picks on PrizePicks

Michigan’s plan to keep it close on Saturday could be quite direct: run the rock, shorten the game, and limit Underwood’s turnovers. If the Wolverines can do that, last week’s controversy may quickly go away if they grab a win over #11 Oklahoma in Week 2.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Oklahoma vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into the 2026 season.