Buckle up, one of the most anticipated games of the 2026 college football season arrives on Saturday, September 12, with the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes visiting Austin to take on the #4 Texas Longhorns under the lights at 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. PrizePicks has this one as a toss-up, with Texas a 1.5-point favorite on the spread.
Following last season’s #1 vs. #2 matchup, we’re in for another treat with NFL talent littered all over the field. PrizePicks currently gives Ohio State the shortest payout to win the national championship (6.25x), while Texas is tied for the third-shortest payout (7.14x).
It doesn’t get much better than this, and we’ve got you covered with everything you need to know in our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction, followed by player picks for projections on PrizePicks.
Make your Ohio State vs. Texas picks on PrizePicks now!
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#1 Ohio State vs. #4 Texas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NCAAF Week 2
Last season, it was #1 Texas visiting Columbus, falling in a 14-7 final. This time around, Ohio State will be the top-ranked squad in a hostile environment, and it should be an even better atmosphere considering it's a night game in DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
The Longhorns certainly have revenge on their mind, as the Buckeyes also sent Texas packing during their run to 2025’s national championship. Capped by a legendary scoop-and-score from EDGE Jack Sawyer, OSU advanced to the national championship game in a 28-14 final.
Auburn transfer WR Cam Coleman is new in Austin, but he understands the implications of this game, stating, “We’re coming. We’re coming.”
That followed Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith showing all focus is on beating Texas, telling head coach Ryan Day at halftime vs. Ball State, “Whatever you want to do I trust you. Let’s just go beat Texas next week.”
Smith has his own demons to exorcise with underwhelming numbers vs. Texas: 1 catch for 3 receiving yards in the 2025 CFP, followed by 6 receptions for 43 receiving yards last season.
Neither team has major concerns following Week 1; Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3, and Texas rolled Texas State 59-7.
As mentioned, Saturday night will be NFL prospects galore. Smith, Texas QB Arch Manning, EDGE Colin Simmons, OT Trevor Goosby, and Coleman all sit in our top eight prospects for the 2027 NFL Draft. Plus, Ohio State QB Julian Sayin is on track for a first-round pick as well.
This matchup should also have huge implications on the Heisman Trophy race. According to PrizePicks, Manning is tied for the third-shortest payout to win the Heisman Trophy (9.09x), followed by Smith and Sayin each sporting a 10x payout for the award (tied for fifth-shortest).
Any way you slice it, Ohio State vs. Texas is a Titanic-sized matchup. We could see the #1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, a potential Heisman Trophy winner, and/or the 2027 national champion all on one field. Let’s make our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction.
Ohio State vs. Texas Spread, Over/Under, Payouts – Saturday, September 12
Considering the quality of these teams, this is viewed as a near pick ‘em, as Texas has a 1.78x payout to win, compared to Ohio State’s 1.96x payout, per PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for Ohio State vs. Texas on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under.
Make your Ohio State vs. Texas prediction on the winner on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction on Winner – 9/13/26
Ohio State is 3-1 and a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in four head-to-head matchups vs. Texas since 2006. Further, the Buckeyes are rarely underdogs, but when they are, the Scarlet and Gray usually win with a 10-3 ATS record while winning nine of those games outright since 2012.
While skill-position players like Jeremiah Smith and Cam Coleman are in the spotlight, big-time matchups are usually won in the trenches. Keep a close eye on these pass rushes, as each defense will need to find a way to slow these passing attacks.
In the 2025 season, head coach Ryan Day and OSU generated 0.39 EPA/pass (99th percentile) compared to 0.09 EPA/rush (58th percentile), per Game On Paper. Texas didn’t have the same efficiency with 0.17 EPA/pass (76th percentile) and 0.09 EPA/rush (57th percentile).
Led by Sayin and Smith, the Buckeyes will likely feature one of the nation’s best passing games once again. Meanwhile, UT will likely improve thanks to the addition of Coleman through the transfer portal.
In addition, Manning had an exceptional 11.1% big-time throw rate with an 85.2% adjusted completion percentage in Week 1, per Pro Football Focus.
Texas has a potential top-10 pick in OT Trevor Goosby, and OT Melvin Siani is 45th overall on NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2027 Consensus Big Board.
There’s a lot of unknown in Ohio State’s front seven on defense, though EDGE Kenyatta Jackson was excellent with 7 pressures in Week 1. Plus, Alabama transfer EDGE Qua Russaw is expected to make his Buckeye debut on Saturday night.
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Texas, on the other hand, doesn’t have as many questions on the defensive line. EDGE Colin Simmons is one of the very best around, racking up 59 pressures, 35 hurries, and 10 sacks in the 2025 season.
Ohio State had some issues at right tackle vs. Ball State, as OT Phillip Daniels struggled. Austin Siereveld then moved from RG to RT, but Daniels quickly came back in at RT. The Buckeyes cannot afford a wishy-washy plan on the offensive line against Simmons.
When under pressure, Sayin had a solid 6.2% big-time throw rate with a 74.3% adjusted completion percentage last season. Manning carried 5.3% and 67.0% marks in comparison.
According to Fourth and Short, Ohio State’s defense generated a 31.8% stuff rate (88th percentile) compared to Texas’ 20.5% (51st percentile) in Week 1.
On offense, the Scarlet and Gray posted 3.3 line yards per attempt (yards per rush gained at the line of scrimmage) — which was in the 61st percentile. The Longhorns had an extremely concerning 2.5 total (20th percentile) while conceding a 28.6% stuff rate (seventh percentile).
Frankly, Texas’ advanced rushing numbers are setting off the alarms. And if Sayin continues to perform better under pressure compared to Manning, in sync with OSU’s success vs. Texas and as an underdog, the Buckeyes could continue to be the bane of the Longhorns’ existence.
Lock in your Ohio State vs. Texas prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!
Ohio State vs. Texas Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/12/26
Saturday’s top Ohio State vs. Texas picks to target on PrizePicks include Bo Jackson and Arch Manning.
Ohio State RB Bo Jackson vs. Texas: 56.5 Rush Yards
- Ohio State tallied only 30 rushing yards at halftime vs. Ball State, but it quickly turned it up a notch by finishing with 237 yards on the ground.
- Bo Jackson was a major piece of the puzzle with 83 rushing yards, including a 65-yard house call.
- In 2025, Jackson recorded 83.8 rushing yards per game as a true freshman.
- The second-year tailback posted a team-high 10 snaps last week, though RB Ja’Kobi Jackson (8) and RB Isaiah West (6) weren’t far behind. However, this workload was surely influenced by a 56-3 blowout win.
- Texas rolled to a 59-7 vs. Texas State, but it surrendered 161 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per carry.
- Pro Football Focus gave the Longhorns a 54.1 tackle grade (100th) in Week 1, and that’s not ideal against Jackson — who had 66 yards after contact last week and an elite 4.12 yards after contact per carry in 2025.
Add Bo Jackson to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Texas QB Arch Manning vs. Ohio State: 198.5 Pass Yards (Flash Sale)
- PrizePicks is offering a Flash Sale on Arch Manning’s passing yards projection, dropping his original 247.5 projection to 198.5.
- He easily surpassed that number a week ago, torching Texas State for 305 passing yards and 11.3 yards per passing attempt.
- Arch reached only 170 passing yards in last season’s battle with OSU, but he finished 2025 strong by racking up 285.7 passing yards per game over his final six contests.
- This is a pass-first offense, proven by 2025’s 51.0% pass-play rate (64th percentile).
- Ohio State’s front seven generated only an 11.3% havoc rate (58th percentile) in Week 1, perhaps giving Manning time in the pocket on Saturday night.
Add Arch Manning to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Ohio State vs. Texas Picks on PrizePicks
Ohio State’s angle to victory could be controlling the run game while Sayin reproduces his solid numbers under pressure from a season ago. However, Manning & Co.’s ability to rack up passing yards remains a serious threat.
In a battle between likely national championship contenders in the primetime spotlight, grab your popcorn and prepare for a non-stop highlight reel of some of the best talent in college football.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Ohio State vs. Texas picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into the 2026 season.
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