Noche UFC Predictions – Silva vs. Delgado & All Main Card Fights Tonight

Mexican combat sports are flush with elite underdog stories from those with true fighting spirit. Can another deliver in the headliner as we celebrate looming Mexican Independence Day in Glendale, Arizona?

In Saturday’s main event, Jose Miguel Delgado is stepping in on short notice for his injured countryman, Yair Rodriguez, in a featherweight title eliminator against the always-intimidating “Lord” from Brazil, Jean Silva.

Noche UFC's main card features six fights, with Silva a heavy favorite over Delgado in the main event, according to PrizePicks payouts. In the co-main event, Mexico’s first UFC champion, Brandon Moreno, will look to halt a two-fight losing skid as he battles surging American grappler Joseph Morales.

The Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado main card starts Saturday at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with Noche UFC predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Silva vs. Delgado and the rest of the main card.

Make your Noche UFC predictions on PrizePicks, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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Noche UFC Predictions for Silva vs. Delgado & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our Noche UFC predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado’s main card is expected to start at 5 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado – Featherweight
• Co-Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales – Flyweight
• Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki – Featherweight
• Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso – Women’s Flyweight
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes – Heavyweight
• David Martinez vs. Dan Ige – Bantamweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each Noche UFC main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado Prediction for Noche UFC

Fight Winner Payouts: Jean Silva 1.23x | Jose Miguel Delgado 3.84x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)

Silva vs. Delgado Model Results:

A title challenger will emerge from the 145-pound main event of Saturday’s celebration.

Jean Silva was in nearly an identical position a year ago at this event and failed to capitalize, losing by second-round (T)KO to Diego Lopes. A decision win over Arnold Allen has put the Fighting Nerds product right back in the conversation.

“Lord” is a showman, constantly playing to the crowd and throwing highlight strikes and kicks while looking for the finish. That sort of shows in a striking success rate (+0.32 SSR) that may not reflect his true skill. He also submitted grappling ace Bryce Mitchell to dissuade potential wrestling threats in the future:

In theory, Silva’s wins in the top 10 like Allen and Kevin Vallejos are a tougher test than Jose Miguel Delgado, who has yet to notch a ranked win. MMA isn’t always about a resume, though.

The upset-minded Mexican must believe he can take advantage of a four-inch reach edge and the unusual lethality of his elbows and knees in the clinch. Delgado has already scored a 30-second KO with those:

Both martial artists mix up the flow of action with wrestling, but it’s not substantial. Delgado’s 3.61 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes lead these two, yet he’s not overly efficient (39%) in securing them.

We very well could see a high-octane, high-power striking duel between featherweights averaging at least a 1.30% knockdown rate (KD%). As the model indicates, a knockout from either of these two shouldn’t be surprising, but perhaps one guy — due to pedigree — is a bit undervalued to score it.

Predict the Silva vs. Delgado winner at Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Silva vs. Delgado Pick for UFC Fight Night

I’ll be fascinated to see how this fight plays out stylistically. Both fighters, averaging at least 9.45 significant strikes per minute, are going to throw out volume to test chins early.

If they pass, this could be an all-out war. For Silva’s powerful reputation, he has only knocked down three of his eight UFC foes. At 5’7”, he’s not an imposing figure for the weight class.

Delgado is at 5’11”, but he’s been the distance in three straight against a lower level of competition.

Once that early power window fades, it’s possible these two settle into a strategic duel. It’s more likely now that there will be a feeling-out process on short notice. 

Silva vs. Delgado – 12 Minutes Fight Time

Make your Silva vs. Delgado pick for Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales Prediction for Noche UFC

Fight Winner Payouts: Brandon Moreno 2.00x | Joseph Morales 1.72x

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 pounds)

Moreno vs. Morales Model Results:

A “must-win” fight outside a title bout in UFC doesn’t really exist, but this is as close as it gets for former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno.

“The Assassin Baby” has dropped two in a row, and the concern is heightened when both fighters that dispatched him — Tatsuro Taira and Lone’er Kavanagh — lost via stoppage in their following match. The 32-year-old is outright sliding down the cliff, and any chance to scale it again must include a victory over Joseph Morales.

At his best, Moreno’s boxing and elite chin — being dropped by just 3 of 20 opponents over a total of 1,272 significant strikes absorbed — are a brutal out, and the Mexico native has never been submitted in this time, either:

He’s very much the “striker” to Morales’ “grappler” in this ranked matchup. Also at 32, “Bopo” has been a total surprise in terms of a late-career resurgence that allowed him to dispatch Alibi Idiris to win “The Ultimate Fighter”. His first official bout with the promotion since 2018 was a first-round submission of Matt Schnell:

That’s what Morales does best, posting 3.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes as an opportunistic neck-snatcher. Doing it to Moreno’s unpenetrated defense would only further cement his arrival to the division.

Personally, Moreno’s decline has come across the board. He’s been outstruck in four of his last five fights, and though Taira didn’t submit the former champ, he did pound him out on the mat. Morales’ ability to control those positions shouldn't be dismissed just because his resume is lacking at this stage.

Predict the Moreno vs. Morales winner at Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Moreno vs. Morales Pick for UFC Fight Night

It’s hard to look at Moreno’s recent raw striking volume and extrapolate that to what you can expect Saturday. Beware that he’s been a full five rounds in four of his last five fights. Saturday’s bout is scheduled for three and could be shorter.

Look no further than the 9 significant strikes he landed on Taira, who controlled 60.1% of their fight on the mat. Morales, similarly, has limited his two opponents to just 32 total significant strikes since returning to the octagon.

Brandon Moreno – 37.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Moreno vs. Morales pick for Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki Prediction for Noche UFC

Fight Winner Payouts: Tommy McMillen 1.56x | Marwan Rahiki 2.27x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)

The people’s main event goes down in the same weight class as the real one. Without a doubt, fight fans can’t wait for Tommy “Gunz” McMillen’s next fight.

McMillen blew the doors off Oklahoma City in July, landing a divisional record of 258 significant strikes with 2 knockdowns in a battering of Alberto Montes, whose toughness was on full display.

The prodigy of Sean O’Malley has certainly delivered on the hype thus far, and we really haven’t seen the Montana native’s alleged wrestling base yet, either. Perhaps he’ll feel it’s the path of least resistance opposite kickboxer Marwan Rahiki.

“Freaky” Rahiki already has a cult following among those looking for a dark horse at 145 pounds himself. The Aussie’s +1.85 SSR hasn’t come through the stiffest of competition, but he passes the eye test with lightning-quick combinations and every punch thrown with the intention to hurt his foe. 

Compare Rahiki’s 1.94 KD% to McMillen’s 0.68 KD%, and it’s a huge advantage for him in this matchup. He’s also had to overcome adversity even dating back to his bid on the Contender Series:

Getting dropped twice in that bid, however, is why you have to favor McMillen’s durability in a firefight — even if the power edge is with the underdog. The most interesting component of this fight could be if McMillen decides to change it up and wrestle if the striking isn’t exactly going his way.

Predict the McMillen vs. Rahiki winner at Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

McMillen vs. Rahiki Pick for UFC Fight Night

Not many fighters can take the downright assault that Montes did. McMillen proved that in a first-round finish of Manolo Zecchini in his debut.

Rahiki’s own “glass cannon” tendencies have also led to all three of his bouts closing out in the first two rounds.

As these top featherweight prospects finally meet their match, power could be an early factor in terms of which one survives this step-up.

McMillen vs. Rahiki – 9.99 Minutes Fight Time

Make your McMillen vs. Rahiki pick for Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso Prediction for Noche UFC

Fight Winner Payouts: Manon Fiorot 1.36x | Alexa Grasso 2.85x

Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Fiorot vs. Grasso Model Results:

At one time, you could pencil in women’s flyweight bouts for a competitive 15. I’m not sure that’s the case anymore.

Five of the last six women’s fights in UFC have ended inside the distance. Both Manon Fiorot and Alexa Grasso are coming off first-round finishes themselves. Don’t take your eyes off this one with championship implications.

Time is of the essence for 36-year-old Manon Fiorot from France, who must not have won the argument to have this bout in her home country last week. “The Beast” is a high-volume kickboxer, attempting 12.86 significant strikes per minute, with elite size and cardio for the division.

She’s already convincingly trounced others with a claim to 125-pound gold, including Erin Blanchfield and Jasmine Jasudavicius in their home cities:

She’s used to playing spoiler, which will have to be the case again as she battles Alexa Grasso, who is unbeaten in Noche UFC appearances.

Mexico’s first female champion is making a run back toward the belt. Natalia Silva, competing for it next month, was able to dispatch Grasso by decision, but the former titleholder made an emphatic “don’t forget about me” complaint with a club-and-sub of Maycee Barber that you have to see to believe:

Distance could be competitive here. Fiorot (+2.07 SSR) has been the stronger, more voluminous striker than Grasso (+0.40 SSR) historically, sure. With that said, the underdog’s newfound submission offense — attempting 7 in her last eight bouts — is a great equalizer that allowed her to do what the Frenchwoman could not: topple Valentina Shevchenko.

Predict the Fiorot vs. Grasso winner at Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Fiorot vs. Grasso Pick for UFC Fight Night

This is a tricky fight for significant strike projections. Both ladies have elite defense (at least 58%) historically, and Fiorot definitely has a path to replicating Grasso’s recent path to defeat.

The favorite attempts 3.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, which even caught me a bit off guard. She’s landed just 2 in her last 4 fights, and none leading to particularly memorable moments. In rematches with Shevchenko, Grasso was controlled on the ground for a total of 24:41 across 50 octagon minutes.

Fiorot’s approach will ultimately dictate a “More” or “Less” here, but Grasso has several obstacles in place that, ultimately, have kept her below 60 significant strikes in four of her last five fights.

Alexa Grasso – 44.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Fiorot vs. Grasso pick for Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes Prediction for Noche UFC

Fight Winner Payouts: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1.44x | Curtis Blaydes 2.56x

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Cortes-Acosta vs. Blaydes Model Results:

I feel like I’ve said “title implications” for nearly all fights but the prospect showcase, but the same can be said in this heavyweight slugfest, too.

Longtime UFC fans had to appreciate a “Fight of the Year” contender from a top-10 heavyweight staple, Curtis Blaydes, earlier this year. Whatever my expectations were for his matchup with Josh Hokit in January, it met and exceeded all of them:

That showed a very different side of “Razor” than the guy who leads the heavyweight division all-time in takedowns (66). He’s had a difficult time establishing his wrestling against the division's elites and, with an improving +1.42 SSR, is leaving it to his boxing.

Perhaps the division’s best pure boxer awaits at Noche UFC. Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s momentum was barely dented with a competitive (and arguably unfair) decision loss to 6’7” Alexander Volkov and his gigantic reach. As the aggressor in that one, “Salsa Boy” delivered on his promise to bring the action as he has several times:

The Dominican former baseball player brings that athleticism to the octagon with unusual movement skills for a big guy (+1.71 SSR) and a rock-solid 73% takedown defense. He hasn’t been floored in five fights, which is certainly an area Blaydes will look to test.

Attrition might explain why Cortes-Acosta is a favorite here. He’s never been stopped in 13 octagon appearances. Blaydes has lost twice by (T)KO in his last five fights. That’s a consequential gap given the stakes with each blow landed, but if Blaydes’ chin is up to the test like it was against Hokit, we might have another banger on our hands.

Predict the Cortes-Acosta vs. Blaydes winner at Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Blaydes Pick for UFC Fight Night

Tread carefully around the significant strike projection for “Salsa Boy."

He’s got a lot of variance baked into this result, failing to clear 45 significant strikes in four of his last five bouts. 

Some of it is early knockout upside from his 0.87 KD%, but Blaydes — averaging 5.12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes — is easily the most potent wrestling threat of his career. Serghei Spivac (3.42) is comparable, and he floored Cortes-Acosta on two of his six tries.

The longer this fight goes, the less it might favor Cortes-Acosta. I’m not sure length would help this mark as it normally would if he’s on his back.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta – 41.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Cortes-Acosta vs. Blaydes pick for Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

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David Martinez vs. Dan Ige Prediction for Noche UFC

Fight Winner Payouts: David Martinez 1.21x | Dan Ige 4.16x

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Martinez vs. Ige Model Results:

The main card opens with one of Mexico’s closest immediate threats to a title. David Martinez has cracked the top 10 at bantamweight, and he’ll look to defend that position against a longtime staple at 145 pounds.

“The Doctor” has been quite a delightful surprise after an unconvincing decision win on the Contender Series. He took advantage of a short-notice opportunity against a then-ranked Rob Font. Consecutive decision wins over Font and Marlon Vera propelled him into the rankings:

On paper, Martinez’s precision — no pun intended as a surgeon — is pretty undeniable. He jets around the outside of the octagon with elite striking defense (69%), absorbing just 2.90 significant strikes per minute with a +1.92 SSR.

Font and Vera don’t quite present the power threat that Dan “100K” Ige does — and that could be amplified in a first appearance at 135 pounds. Ige has a significant 0.81 KD% against larger foes.

However, the 35-year-old has to make a quick run. He’s otherwise lost four of five bouts entering this appearance, but it may bring him some level of comfort that Martinez isn’t really a wrestling threat. He’s been taken down 10 times on this skid.

Shifts in weight class affect every fighter differently, but the general school of thought is that speed is a sacrifice moving down in weight, and Martinez is a cheetah. Entertainment value might not be extremely high if the Mexican favorite maximizes his skillset, but this would be yet another exceptional victory to stack on a short but impressive list of wins.

Predict the Martinez vs. Ige winner at Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Martinez vs. Ige Pick for UFC Fight Night

If there’s one thing we can generally trust from the Hawaiian boxer, it’s durability.

In 30 pro fights, Ige has been finished just once by knockout. It was a spectacular, unpredictable kick from Melquizael Costa:

Lightning striking twice in the same year would be pretty remarkable, but especially when Martinez hasn’t dropped three of his four opponents.

In full-length bouts, Martinez averages 70.67 significant strikes landed. The model’s forecast of a full fight 64.9% of the time looms large toward this projection.

David Martinez – 61.5 Significant Strikes

Make your Martinez vs. Ige pick for Noche UFC on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for Noche UFC: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make Noche UFC Predictions on PrizePicks

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks. Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 5 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for Noche UFC, headlined by Silva vs. Delgado, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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