Best NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks: Take Bengals or Texans This Week?

The first month of the 2026 NFL season is wrapped up, and if you’ve been following our picks, you’ve survived so far. With the Dallas Cowboys’ upset loss on Thursday Night, the most popular pick of Week 5 has already fallen — if you avoided it, you’re in great shape as we head into the Sunday slate.

Even without Lamar Jackson in the second half, the Ravens handled the lowly Titans in Week 4, and we’re moving on.

Below, we’ll highlight the best Week 5 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools and walk through some strategies to get you to Week 6. 

According to SurvivorGrid, three non-home teams top the expected value list: the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and the Detroit Lions. The Jaguars host the ailing Philadelphia Eagles in London, the Texans face the Titans, and the Lions take on the Cardinals.

We mentioned a few weeks ago that the Miami Dolphins are the team to target in survivor, and they’re back in action at home vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, who could be without their top receivers, Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin/neck), both questionable to play. 

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 5 Picks & Strategy

While it isn’t ideal to take visiting teams, the Bengals head to Miami for Week 5, setting up an ideal spot to back Joe Burrow, especially as the AFC North looks like one of the tougher divisions in football.

Divisional matchups can also be tricky, with so much history behind them that they can feel different from an average game.

The Texans, sitting at 0-4, face a divisional road matchup against vs. the Titans in Week 5. Coming off a late loss to the Cowboys, Houston is one of the best survivor picks to take, facing another 0-4 team. Last week, we targeted the Titans as another matchup to take due to their struggles on both sides of the ball. 

Best NFL Week 5 Survivor Picks: Two Teams to Target

Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 5 survivor picks, both of which enter as road favorites.

Also listed are the winner payouts, spreads, and totals for each game via PrizePicks, where you can make your NFL picks and earn money if you’re right!

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Note: payouts represent real-money earnings if a pick wins on PrizePicks. For example, a 2x represents a $100 entry on a correct pick that pays out $200.

Best Week 5 Survivor Pick: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Another week, another Dolphins matchup to target. The Bengals are nearly touchdown favorites (6.5 points) vs. the Dolphins on Sunday.

The biggest disclaimer here, however, is that both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are questionable to play with a groin/neck/adductor injury and a concussion, respectively. Chase has not yet been cleared to play with his concussion.

Even if both sit, the Bengals should still be solid favorites without them, but a lot will change offensively if they miss one or both of their top receivers.

While the Dolphins could hang with the Vikings for most of last week’s game, much of that came down to the Vikings’ inability to score touchdowns in the offensive half, with five field goals. The analytics suggest it should be smoother sailing for the Bengals. 

According to PPRRankings, the Dolphins’ offense ranks 30th in the league with a -0.14 EPA/play and 31st with a 35% success rate. They’re now missing their star RB De’Von Achane; in their first game without him, the Dolphins totaled just 198 vs. the Vikings.

Their defensive metrics don’t improve, ranking fourth-worst with a 0.15 EPA/play allowed. That number doubles on dropbacks (0.31 EPA/play), so Joe Burrow and the passing game could hum. 

After struggling to put up points against a stingy Jaguars defense, this is the perfect get-right game for the Bengals, even if Higgins and Chase aren’t fully ready to go.

Pick the Bengals to win vs. Dolphins on PrizePicks now!

Best Week 5 Survivor Pick: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

Divisional matchups are usually fades in survivor pools, and it’s usually better to take a home team as well. But as mentioned earlier in this column, the Titans are the second team we want to target in survivor matchups this year. 

It’s an indictment of the offense when both their starting QB and RB are contributing negative EPA/play: -0.15 for Cam Ward and -.04 for Tony Pollard, respectively. While the Texans defense hasn’t been what was expected so far, this is the game where they could finally make their mark against the Titans offense, which is 27th in EPA/play overall. 

The Titans defense isn’t much better, allowing 0.15 EPA/play, ranking 21st in the NFL. Against dropbacks, that number nearly doubles, up to 0.27. 

Texans QB C.J. Stroud has been playing well, with over 1,000 passing yards and 0 INTs through his first four games, despite missing WR1 Nico Collins for most of it. Projected for 239.5 passing yards on PrizePicks vs. the Texans, Stroud has a great chance to put up numbers again on Sunday.

Pick the Texans to win vs. Titans on PrizePicks now!

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Week 5 Survivor Picks to Avoid

Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, avoid these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 5. These teams are favored on the spread on PrizePicks, but may be riskier than they seem, making them not worth your survivor life.

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants 

Another week with a divisional game in the avoid category for our survivor pools, this time in the NFC East. The Commanders are expected to start Jayden Daniels after his elbow injury. While Daniels is 3-0 against the Giants in his career, his first game back from a worrisome injury could be a fade spot.

Both offenses are below league average, ranking 21st and 22nd in EPA per play. On defense, the Giants have allowed the ninth-fewest yards in the league. Meanwhile, the Commanders are in the middle of the pack in yards allowed. 

The spread is only 3.5 points in favor of the Commanders with Daniels playing. With both teams in the middle of the pack with this spread, this game is just too hard to call, especially as the Giants continue to look more competent with Jameis Winston under center. 

Pick Commanders to win vs. Giants on PrizePicks now!

Survivor Pick to Avoid: New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns

This is one of the few games this season where the Jets are favored, with a 2.5-point spread on PrizePicks. With such a small spread, we’d likely avoid this game for survivor pools anyway.

The Jets and Browns are surprisingly just outside the top-10 in EPA per dropback with Geno Smith and Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Both teams’ rush offenses leave much to be desired, though, averaging less than 100 yards per game in the first month of the season. 

The Browns' defense is allowing the 10th-most yards this year, while the Jets are allowing the 11th-least.

However, it's been the Browns' offense that's impressed, coming off three straight wins after their Week 1 loss, including one over the Panthers. In that span, QB Deshaun Watson has thrown for 5 TDs and 1 INT. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off three straight losses. 

With another close spread and two offenses likely to move the ball through the air due to their success so far, this game could come down to who makes the fewest mistakes, making it a tough one to back in survivor.

Pick Jets to win vs. Browns on PrizePicks now! 

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Best Week 5 Survivor Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Once again, targeting the Dolphins is the move for your NFL Survivor Pools this week. The Dolphins offense is struggling to move the ball, especially without De’Von Achane, and their defense — especially against the pass — is horrendous, despite holding the Vikings to just 15 points last week. 

While Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins' health could play a factor, the Bengals offense should still have enough firepower with Burrow, Chase Brown, and reserve WRs to get the job done.

Make NFL Week 5 Picks on PrizePicks

One week at a time is the key. Don’t lose your NFL survivor pool in Week 5! Ride with the Bengals or the Texans as big favorites this week — the best picks on the board.

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