The NFL season is officially rolling, and Week 4 brings another loaded Sunday slate with plenty of intriguing player matchups to attack.
We have a ton of fascinating spots this week and will break down 18 individual player matchups for you to consider, including QBs, RBs, pass catchers, and potential Anytime TD scorers.
The Week 4 cheat sheet is your ultimate resource for the top player picks for PrizePicks NFL, matchups to target, and game insights for the slate.
Ready to lock in your NFL Week 4 predictions? Just go to the PrizePicks NFL board, pick your players, and predict if they'll have More or Less than their projected stats to earn cash if you're right.
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NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet, NFL Picks & Predictions – Sunday, October 4
Find the top NFL Week 4 predictions, picks, matchups, and players to target below in the PrizePicks cheat sheet, including analysis on QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, and TD scorers.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from SumerSports, PFF, and Pro Football Reference.
NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks
Rams QB Matthew Stafford vs. Eagles – 249.5 Pass Yards
Stafford is averaging 290.7 per game and is coming off a ridiculous 390-yard performance against Denver. Philadelphia has allowed 0.165 EPA per dropback, while opposing QBs are producing 20.7 fantasy PPG against the Eagles. He also welcomes back arguably the league’s best WR, Puka Nacua.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Patriots – 241.5 Pass Yards
This is a spot where Allen can take advantage of a defense missing key players. No DT Christian Barmore may allow Allen ample time and space to pick apart this New England secondary missing perhaps the league’s best CB, Christian Gonzalez.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud vs. Cowboys – 244.5 Pass Yards
The Cowboys' “defense” is allowing the league’s highest success rate (54.4%) and the second-highest EPA/pass (0.37).
Bengals QB Joe Burrow vs. Jaguars – 265.5 Pass Yards
Burrow gets one of the most attractive shootout environments on the slate. Jacksonville's offense is averaging almost 30 PPG, while Cincinnati ranks 24th in total defense and has allowed 355.7 YPG. This can create the kind of back-and-forth game script that might produce 40+ pass attempts.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Bengals – 264.5 Pass Yards
The second half of the juicy shootout environment with Burrow. The Bengals' defense cedes 260 passing YPG, the fifth-most.
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NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet: Running Backs
Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Titans – 97.5 Rush Yards
Revenge narrative and game script play roles here. This is King Henry’s first time facing the Titans since he left the team in 2024.
As 11.5-point home favorites, the script appears favorable for a mammoth Henry workload, especially in the second half.
Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker vs. Raiders – 88.5 Rush Yards
Walker is averaging 120 rushing YPG and has immediately stepped into one of the league's most voluminous RB roles at over 25 touches per game.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Panthers – 96.5 Rush Yards
This one is simple: Carolina is allowing 193.3 rushing YPG — dead last in the NFL by a massive margin.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Commanders – 91.5 Rush Yards
This is another fantastic volume spot for Taylor against a Commanders defense that allows 362.3 YPG, the sixth-most in the league. JT is already averaging 22 carries and is now installed as a 3.5-point favorite in London.
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Rams – 69.5 Rush Yards
The Eagles are without WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert, which could push even more offensive responsibility toward Barkley. The Rams' defense has operated as a run funnel, ranking sixth in EPA/pass (-0.18) but 24th against the run (-0.01).
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NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet: Receivers
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Chargers – 92.5 Rec Yards
It’s just flat-out too low of a number for a receiver that is averaging 135 receiving YPG and Pro Football Focus currently places first among 85 qualified receivers with a 92.7 overall grade.
Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. Jaguars – 82.5 Rec Yards
The Jags are allowing the ninth-most receiving YPG, and Chase is a target hog, accounting for 25 of Burrow’s 97 pass attempts. The Bengals are tied with the Lions for the highest projected team total on the slate.
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Panthers – 75.5 Rec Yards
Speaking of the Lions, St. Brown has seen a massive 35 targets through three games and now faces a Panthers defense that's giving up the fifth-most total YPG (365.7). The Lions also surrender insane yardage (416.7 per game), so the offense might have to keep throwing to keep pace.
Packers WR Christian Watson vs. Buccaneers – 67.5 Rec Yards
Watson is averaging a ridiculous 16.7 yards per reception. HC Todd Bowles' Bucs defense has operated as a pass funnel every year, and this season has been no different. The Bucs sit fourth defensively in EPA/rush (-0.22).
Rams WR Davante Adams vs. Eagles – 65.5 Rec Yards
This projection feels too far adjusted for Nacua's return. Adams has been borderline unstoppable over the last two weeks, averaging 166 YPG. Puka’s return will also force Adams into single-coverage looks, which he can cook against.
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NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet: Anytime TD Scorers
Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Titans – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)
An absolute dream revenge spot for Henry, who already has 18 carries inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He's scored a TD in every game this season and has multiple TDs in two of them.
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Chargers – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)
JSN is averaging 1 TD every 6 targets and is averaging 12 targets per game. He’s a monster who can take it to the house from both 80 and 8 yards away.
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Patriots – 0.5 Player TDs (Goblin)
Allen has already scored 6 rushing TDs through three games, including multiple rushing scores in each of Buffalo's first three contests. That's an absurd goal-line workload for a QB, and Buffalo's projected 25.6-point total suggests Allen may have multiple opportunities to punch one in himself.
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Make NFL Week 4 Predictions on PrizePicks
Week 4 brings another massive Sunday slate with plenty of opportunities to attack player projections across every position. The biggest themes this week are elite offensive environments, explosive passing games, and several RBs walking into favorable matchups.
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