NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks: Use Chiefs, Seahawks This Week?

So far, so good if you followed both of our survivor picks for Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers. You also survived if you had other Week 2 team to target, the Philadelphia Eagles, who scraped by to defeat the Tennessee Titnas.

Let’s highlight the best Week 3 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools and walk through some strategies to get you to Week 4.

On top of this week’s survivor picks are two of the hottest teams in the NFL; the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the struggling Dolphins, and the Seahawks vs. the Commanders, who will be without starting QB Jayden Daniels. 

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 3 Picks & Strategy

Week 3 seems less “straightforward” than others, with most games close to the projected spreads. While the San Francisco 49ers aren’t available to most of you who followed us last week vs. the Dolphins, those who didn’t take them would love to use them this week as the biggest home favorite this week (-8.5).

Despite being only two weeks into the season, there are obvious matchups that you may want to target, including teams who play the Miami Dolphins. Miami is one of three teams at the moment who aren’t favored to win a single game for the rest of the season. They also look to be historically bad on the defensive side of the ball, especially in pass defense.

Most weeks, their matchups will be targeted, but still remember to keep in mind to ideally target home teams and teams who still have future value down the road.

Meanwhile, three teams lost their QB in Week 2, at least for the upcoming week, which should open up additional opportunities; Jaxson Dart went down with a season-ending knee injury for the Giants; Jayden Daniels re-injured his non-throwing elbow; and the Bears are likely to be without Caleb Williams (hamstring) and Tyson Bagent (concussion).

With those QBs out, it could open up some additional opportunities on a weekly basis as long as they are out.

Best Week 3 Survivor Picks: Two Teams to Target

Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 3 survivor picks, including two home big favorites on the spread in Week 3.

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Best Week 3 Survivor Pick: Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins

Miami gets a slight improvement from last week’s 13.5-point spread to 10.5-point dogs at home this time around. However, that won't help them against a Kansas City Chiefs team that’s looked explosive on offense to start the season. 

The Chiefs rank fourth overall in explosive plays on offense through two weeks. The Chiefs’ explosive offense, compounded with a Dolphins defense that is second-worst in the league with a .432 dropback expected points added (EPA) per play allowed, is a recipe for disaster. 

It’s a surprise that the Dolphins somehow aren’t the worst in dropback expected points added per play allowed, given their horrid pass rush and a historically bad pass defense overall. 

Even the offense isn’t a bright spot for Miami right now, accumulating only 367 yards so far. The Chiefs' defense has looked strong too, allowing only 505 yards total. Miami really has nothing going for it in either the raw numbers or analytics, so this should be one-way traffic for the Chiefs.

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Best Survivor Pick: Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders

We’re targeting back-to-back road teams this week, and this one may raise some caution flags, since there’s a belief that teams traveling west-to-east are affected. However, data scientist Max Moacanin shared that the disadvantage is a myth.

The Washington Commanders are down star QB Jayden Daniels after a severe elbow injury for the second straight season. The team is expected to start Marcus Mariota in Daniels’ absence, at least for the foreseeable future. 

In the second half vs. the Dallas Cowboys, the Commanders were middle of the pack on offense with a -0.04 EPA/play. However, that was against the Cowboys’ defense that couldn’t get off the field vs. the Giants in Week 1. 

On the other hand, the Seahawks have the second-best defense in terms of yards allowed this season, so nothing will come easy for Washington. 

QB Drew Lock has also done a stellar job filling in for the injured Sam Darnold, throwing for 422 yards and 4 TDs, ranking fourth in total EPA in this young season. Darnold is expected to return this week, which gives the offense an overall boost as well.

Similar to the Chiefs vs. Dolphins game, the recipe is the same here: one team is great on both sides of the ball, while their opponent struggles on both sides.

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Week 3 Survivor Picks to Avoid

Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, avoid these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 3 — or the teams that are favored on the spread on PrizePicks, but may be riskier than they seem.

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys (Brazil Game)

Week 2 for the Dallas Cowboys was a get-right week after a disappointing opening-night loss to the New York Giants. In Baltimore, the home opener for head coach Jesse Minter looked reminiscent of the John Harbaugh era, as the Ravens built a double-digit lead before crumbling in the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints.

The key takeaway from the game vs. the Cowboys is that it is an international game set to be played in Brazil. International games are already tricky to call due to the many external factors at play. 

The biggest talking point of this game is the worry about the field. If even soccer players are complaining about the quality of the field, it’s going to be a major concern for NFL players.

Even without breaking down the Xs and Os and numbers, this game should be an avoid due to concerns about travel for international games and the current state of the field.

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Survivor Pick to Avoid: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

For the second straight week, we have a divisional game in the avoid section. Divisional games are always more difficult to call, even if there’s a drastic difference in quality. This game is also projected to be one of the lower-scoring games of the week at only 42.5 projected points. 

The math checks out on that projection as both teams are top-five defenses in EPA/play allowed. Historically, Joe Burrow is hovering around .500 for his career against the Steelers, with a 4-3 record and a 15-10 TD/INT ratio. 

For the Steelers, it’s about getting their offense going. The team has only accumulated 499 yards of total offense, which ranks third-to-last, only ahead of the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans. One of the biggest reasons, their offense can’t fully get going is that the team leads the league in expected points lost from drops for QBs.

The Bengals offense isn’t the one we’re used to seeing, towards the top of the league. So far, they’re middle of the pack with 656 yards of total offense. They’re doing enough to get the job done off the strength of a great defense. 

With two elite defenses in a divisional game, this will be even tougher to call than usual — look elsewhere this week, as tempting as it may be to back Burrow.

Pick Bengals to win vs. Steelers on PrizePicks now! 

Best Week 3 Survivor Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Our Week 3 key takeaway is to target obvious matchups against bad teams, and that’s exactly what we’re doing here by going with the Kansas City Chiefs against the Miami Dolphins. 

The 49ers looked comfortable the whole way against Miami, and the Chiefs should be the same as well.

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One week at a time. Don’t lose your NFL survivor pool in Week 3! Ride with the Chiefs or the Seahawks on the road this week — the best picks on the board.

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