NFL Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em RBs: Jaylen Warren vs. Aaron Jones

With two weeks of data in the bank, it’s time to make your final start or sit decisions for Week 3 fantasy football lineups. 

Just two weeks in, there haven’t been many injuries to key running backs — knock on wood. However, two RBs previously in split backfields now find themselves as the likely bell cow in Week 3. Steelers RB Jaylen Warren and Vikings RB Aaron Jones should see the lion’s share of their backfields’ touches this week, with both of their backfield counterparts out.

In this NFL Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em decision, let’s jump into each player's matchup for fantasy football and PrizePicks projections, followed by a verdict on who you should start in Week 3: Jaylen Warren or Aaron Jones?

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NFL Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: RBs Jaylen Warren vs. Aaron Jones

Both running backs should be in line for increased opportunities with their running mates out due to injury, making both viable Week 3 starts on volume alone. But which one is the better start in your fantasy football lineup?

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren takes on the Cincinnati Bengals at home at 1 p.m. ET on CBS; RB Rico Dowdle has been ruled out with a toe injury. Vikings RB Aaron Jones Sr. travels to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers; backfield partner Jordan Mason is on IR with a thumb injury.

Surprisingly, both also come into this game a bit dinged up, but fully cleared to play; Warren is dealing with a shoulder injury and is questionable, while Jones injured his knee in Week 2 but practiced in full on Thursday and is cleared to play.

Both RBs also have relatively tough matchups, as the Bengals’ improved front seven and the Buccaneers' rush defense both rank in the top in rushing yards allowed per game and the top 10 in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush, per RBSDM.

With Warren and Jones expected to dominate their backfields’ touches, who is the better fantasy football start in Week 3: Jaylen Warren or Aaron Jones?

Start or Sit Jaylen Warren vs. Bengals

Jaylen Warren Week 3 PrizePicks Projections: 15.5 fantasy score, 57.5 rush yards, 15 rush attempts, 4 receptions, 26.5 receiving yards, 87.5 rush+rec yards, 0.5 anytime TDs (Demon)

Let’s start with the injury, as Warren is officially questionable to play. However, he was limited all week, which is a good sign for his playing status. The Steelers promoted Travis Homer to the active roster on Saturday, giving them an option if Warren is unable to play. 

Assuming he does play, Warren should get almost all of the touches out of this Steelers’ backfield. However, he runs into an improved Bengals defense that is allowing just 74.5 rush yards per game, third-best in the league.

Surprisingly, we actually have a perfect comp for this matchup; last year, the Steelers faced the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 5. Warren rushed for 16-127, adding 4 receptions for 31 yards — good for 19.8 fantasy points in PPR leagues.

Warren has one massive advantage over Jones, which is seen in the PrizePicks projections above: his pass-game production. He already has 7 catches for 61 yards on 9 targets this season; his targets rank ninth among all RBs, despite splitting snaps to this point. 

That’s an average of 6.5 fantasy points per game in PPR, just in receiving production alone.

Despite their improvements in the run game and pass rush, the Bengals surrendered 7 receptions on 7 targets for 48 yards to Bucs RB Bucky Irving in Week 1, which gives a path to Warren making an impact in the pass game.

The downside for Warren is the Steelers’ offense as a whole. Pittsburgh has a projected team total of 17.5 points — or fewer than 3 TDs; the Bengals limited the Texans’ offense to just 6 points in Week 2.

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Start or Sit Aaron Jones vs. Buccaneers

Aaron Jones Week 3 PrizePicks Projections: 11.5 fantasy score, 51.5 rush yards, 13.5 rush attempts,1.5 receptions (Goblin), 12.5 receiving yards, 68.5 rush+rec yards, 0.5 anytime TDs

Now in his age-32 season and two years removed from averaging more than 4.2 yards per carry over a full season, Aaron Jones is no longer the explosive back you may remember from Green Bay.

Even so, when it comes to running backs, volume is king. And in the first week Mason missed last week vs. the Bears, Jones rushed 23 times for 105 yards, despite leaving part of the game with a minor knee injury.

Although he’s not on the Week 3 injury report, Jones was “pretty sore” after Week 2, according to coach Kevin O’Connell, Sounds like a sign of old age, if I’ve ever heard one.

Part of that workload could be due to QB Kyler Murray missing Week 2, which likely shifted the Vikings’ game plan to lean into the run and their blitz-heavy defense, especially with a small lead for most of the game.

Jones runs into a very tough Week 3 matchup; the Bucs are fourth in rushing yards allowed (75.0 per game) and yards per carry (3.0).

Despite getting 23 rushes with Mason out vs. the Bears last week, Jones didn’t play on a single pass snap in Week 2, per PFF; DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne were the preferred options, each tallying 1 catch. Jones has just 1 target with 0 catches in 2026.

That said, Jones did contribute to the pass game last year, averaging 2.3 receptions per game.

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Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Pick: Start Jaylen Warren

I can’t help but see Warren’s pass-game contributions as a major plus for him vs. the Bengals, in a game where the Steelers are expected to trail. If they do, the game script could call for more passes. 

After getting 23 carries last week, you can certainly argue that Jones has a stronger case for more touches, but the path to better production looks narrow; without receptions, he’ll need to be highly efficient or find the end zone to match Warren’s passing production.

While Jones has dominated red-zone carries to this point, the Vikings should have more reliable red-zone options this week, with QB Kyler Murray back in the fold.

If we get confirmation that Warren is active and starting, go with him, as he should be the only RB involved in the pass game; if you have Jones, he’s a fine start, but his upside will likely be very TD-dependent vs. a stout Tampa run defense.

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Aaron Jones and Jaylen Warren were drafted as no more than flex options in fantasy football, but both have been elevated to RB2 options in Week 3. Both should shoulder the lions’ share of the RB work this week in difficult matchups, despite dealing with minor injuies.

However, Warren may be the guy to keep in your lineup, as his passing production could be key for the Steelers as underdogs.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your NFL Week 3 picks on PrizePicks now! You can make picks on game winners, spreads, and over/unders on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states. Plus, pick players and predict More or Less on their stats. Combine both teams + players for even higher payouts! 

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