College football bowl season rolls on in full swing, and Friday presents a trio of matchups for fans to tune into. The middle game on ESPN, New Mexico vs. Minnesota (4:30 p.m. ET), sees the Lobos and Golden Gophers collide.
With a 9-3 record, New Mexico is having a heck of a season under first-year head coach Jason Eck. It’s their best record since 1982’s 10-1 campaign in the WAC. Minnesota, meanwhile, can rise to 8-5 for the second consecutive campaign with a victory on Friday afternoon.
Here, we’ll break down a New Mexico vs. Minnesota prediction and picks for the Rate Bowl on Friday. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game for player projections on QB Drake Lindsey and others.
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
For the Lobos, there are no major opt-outs or injuries to keep an eye on. That’s tremendous news for New Mexico.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is healthy but has RB Fame Ijeboi and WRs Malachi Coleman and Kenric Lanier entering the transfer portal. The Golden Gophers will be a bit shorthanded in the Rate Bowl.
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Over/Under, Spread
The Lobos enter Friday’s game as 2.5-point underdogs, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Golden Gophers are favorites with a 1.75x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Game Winner Payout: Lobos 1.96x | Golden Gophers 1.75x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for New Mexico vs. Minnesota.
- New Mexico is 7-5 against the spread this season, good for a 58.3% cover rate. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 4-7-1 (36.4%).
- The Lobos’ offense sits 59th in per-game scoring at 27.5 points and is the 13th-best on fourth downs (67.86%).
- On defense, New Mexico is solid, ranking 40th in scoring (22.5 PPG) and 36th in yards per game (347.5).
- Minnesota’s offense is uncharacteristically poor this year, being 115th in scoring (19.4 PPG) and 132nd in yardage (279.8 YPG).
- Defensively, the Golden Gophers are 76th in points per play (0.390) and 106th in the red zone (87.8%).
New Mexico vs. Minnesota Picks for PrizePicks
Below are prime New Mexico vs. Minnesota Rate Bowl picks to consider. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Drake Lindsey and Jack Layne and RB Darius Taylor.
New Mexico QB Jack Layne vs. Minnesota Projection: 172.5 Pass Yards
- Layne averages 199.8 passing yards per game in his junior campaign. In his last four games, that number is an even 200.
- According to Game on Paper, Layne’s 4.73 yards per dropback rank 41st out of 132 qualified signal callers.
- Among all Mountain West QBs, Layne’s 17 big-time throws rank fifth, per Pro Football Focus.
- Minnesota’s pass defense ranks 132nd in completion rate (68.5%) and 111th in yards per pass (8.0).
Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey vs. New Mexico Projection: 204.5 Pass Yards
- Across 12 games, Lindsey averages 186.3 passing yards. In his last six outings, however, that bar is all the way down to 158.5.
- Lindsey’s 3.84 yards per dropback sits 84th among qualified FBS QBs entering the Rate Bowl.
- New Mexico’s pass defense may be 85th in yards per play, but it’s 11th in sack percentage at 8.73. Minnesota allows a sack 5.09% of the time.
- Minnesota’s passing offense is in the 10th percentile in explosive plays, per Game on Paper.
Minnesota RB Darius Taylor vs. New Mexico Projection: 90.5 Rush Yards
- Taylor averaged 61.6 yards per game across nine outings this season. That included outputs of 100+ yards against Buffalo (Aug. 28), Nebraska (Oct. 17), and Wisconsin (Nov. 29).
- Via Game on Paper, Taylor’s -0.16 EPA/rush puts him 236th in the nation entering Friday’s game.
- The Golden Gophers explosive rush rate is in just the sixth percentile, and their rush EPA per play is even worse at the first percentile.
- New Mexico’s run defense yields the 18th-lowest yards per play (3.4) while being 20th in yards per game at 113.5.
Make New Mexico vs. Minnesota Rate Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
As bowl season rolls on, New Mexico vs. Minnesota isn’t the only game you’ll have to choose from. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on all the action.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.
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