NASCAR Predictions for South Point 400, Starting Lineup at Las Vegas – 10/4/26

The NASCAR South Point 400 gets started this afternoon on Sunday, October 4, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on USA Network.

Sunday’s race features 267 laps spanning 400 miles at this intermediate track. Today marks the fifth race in the Chase for the Cup, concluding with a driver being crowned champion at Homestead on November 8.

Kyle Larson has won twice in the last three weeks after going through a 51-race winless stretch. Larson captured the checkered flag at the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas, his fourth consecutive Top-5 finish since the start of the Chase.

Below, we'll break down our NASCAR South Point 400 predictions and pick to win for Sunday’s race, including top driver picks for PrizePicks.

Make your NASCAR picks for the South Point 400 on PrizePicks — and earn real money if you're right.

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NASCAR South Point 400, Top 10 Predictions for Las Vegas – Sunday, October 4

Larson has been the story of the Chase, with his three consecutive Top-2 finishes. He seeks his first win at Las Vegas since March 2024.

In the first Vegas race back in March, Larson posted a pair of second-place finishes in the first two stages before concluding the Pennzoil 400 in seventh. Denny Hamlin won the Pennzoil 400 after leading for 134 laps, finishing ahead of Chase Elliott and William Byron.

In last year’s South Point 400, Hamlin came out on top over Larson despite leading for only 9 laps. Larson led for 129 laps and won the second stage but came up short in the midst of his long winless drought.

Byron has closed in the Top 4 in three of the last four events at Las Vegas, while crashing out and finishing 36th last October. 

The favorite to win the South Point 400 is Denny Hamlin, entering Sunday's race (5:30 p.m. ET), according to PrizePicks Team Picks.

Hamlin currently has a 3.22x payout ($100 pays out $322) if he wins, while Larson is right behind him at a 5.26x payout to win at Las Vegas, according to PrizePicks.

Payout multipliers listed below (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if your NASCAR predictions are correct; for example, 2x on a $100 entry pays $200 if correct on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states. “Yes” payouts represent a specific outcome occurring, whereas "No" payouts indicate the opposite.

NASCAR South Point 400 Winner Payouts on PrizePicks

Here are the payouts for drivers to win the NASCAR South Point 400 winner from Las Vegas Motor Speedway on PrizePicks. Make your South Point 400 pick on 'Yes' or 'No' for a driver to win.

NASCAR Starting Lineup for South Point 400: Hamlin Earns Pole Position

The NASCAR South Point 400 qualifying took place on Saturday with Hamlin capturing his fifth pole of the season.    

It’s nearly automatic that Hamlin will be standing in the winner’s circle when he starts first, already picking up three victories in 2026 along with a second-place finish at Martinsville.

Hamlin led for 134 laps in the March triumph at Las Vegas but led for 98 laps in the past eight races combined in Sin City.

Ty Gibbs begins alongside Hamlin on the front row, marking his highest career starting position in Las Vegas. Gibbs finished fifth in the March event in Vegas, which is only the second time in eight races at this venue he placed higher than 20th.

Here is the full NASCAR South Point 400 starting lineup at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s race at 5:30 p.m. ET on USA Network. 

Row 1: Denny Hamlin / Ty Gibbs

Row 2: Christopher Bell / Chase Briscoe

Row 3: Tyler Reddick / Kyle Larson

Row 4: Austin Cindric / William Byron

Row 5: Bubba Wallace / Carson Hocevar

Row 6: Daniel Suarez / Ryan Preece

Row 7: Chase Elliott / Chris Buescher

Row 8: Alex Bowman / Brad Keselowski 

Row 9: Ross Chastain / Michael McDowell

Row 10: AJ Allmendinger / Ryan Blaney 

Row 11: Erik Jones / Riley Herbst 

Row 12: Joey Logano / Cole Custer

Row 13: Shane van Gisbergen / Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

Row 14: Todd Gilliand / Austin Dillon

Row 15: Ty Dillon / Zane Smith

Row 16: Connor Zilisch / John H. Nemechek

Row 17: Austin Hill / Cody Ware

Row 18: Josh Berry / Noah Gragson 

NASCAR South Point 400 Predictions, Driver Picks for Las Vegas

Here are three of the top South Point 400 picks to target in the NASCAR race from Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday. Top PrizePicks NASCAR picks are headlined by three drivers: Chase Briscoe, Carson Hocevar, and Chase Elliott.

Chase Briscoe – 10.5 Finishing Position

Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 10 in South Point 400 via PrizePicks: Yes 1.51x | No 1.04x

• Briscoe placed fourth at the 2025 South Point 400, tied for his highest finish in 11 career races at this track.
• Through four Chase races, Briscoe finished sixth or higher in the two events he finished. He failed to finish at Gateway (32nd) and Bristol (27th).
• In 10 races at intermediate tracks this season, Briscoe owns seven Top-10 finishes, capped off by placing in the Top 4 three consecutive times.
• In the last two opportunities starting in the first two rows, he closed fifth and second. 

Add Chase Briscoe to your PrizePicks NASCAR picks for the South Point 400.

Carson Hocevar – 10.5 Finishing Position

Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 10 in South Point 400 via PrizePicks: Yes 1.69x | No 1.81x

• Hocevar has not fared well in Vegas, posting zero finishes above 15th in six tries.
• Following a third-place finish at Bristol two weeks ago, Hocevar slipped to 33rd at Kansas, his fourth finish of 30th or lower in the past eight outings.
• In 11 of the last 15 races, Hocevar has finished outside the Top 10.
• Hocevar owns four Top-10 finishes in 10 races at intermediate tracks this season.

Add Carson Hocevar to your PrizePicks NASCAR picks for the South Point 400.

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Chase Elliott – 9.5 Finishing Position

Chase Elliott to Finish Top 10 in South Point 400 via PrizePicks: Yes 1.66x | No 1.75x

• Elliott finished lower than 10th in six consecutive Las Vegas races before closing second in March’s Pennzoil 400.
• In 14 of the last 16 races overall, Elliott has failed to close within the Top 10. However, one of those Top-10 finishes came at Kansas last Sunday, placing eighth. 
• Elliott starts 13th today, which has been lucky for the veteran driver. In the prior two races beginning 13th this season, he placed eighth at Kansas in April and fifth at Richmond in August.
• Since winning at Texas in May, Elliott has finished outside the Top 10 in five of the last seven events at intermediate tracks.

Add Chase Elliott to your PrizePicks NASCAR picks for the South Point 400.

Make NASCAR South Point 400 Predictions on PrizePicks

Today reaches the halfway point of the Chase for the Cup in Las Vegas. Will Larson continue his hot stretch, or will Hamlin remain dominant when he starts on the pole?

Don’t wait until lock — make your NASCAR South Point 400 predictions on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

There are unique picks on the NASCAR board for every race, including driver points and starting position; just pick at least two drivers to build your lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on race winners on Team Picks, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in to Playbook throughout the season for more NASCAR picks, predictions, and news every day.