AS Monaco heads back to Stade Louis-II looking to punch above their weight in this Champions League knockout tie, leaning on an attack that has been dangerous but inconsistent all season.
Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, arrives as heavy favorites, riding elite domestic form and a star-studded front line that can flip a match in minutes. Now, the French powers square off Tuesday, Feb. 17 at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+ in a high-stakes showdown.
Let's take a look at a Monaco vs. PSG prediction and Tuesday UEFA Champions League picks for the clash at Stade Louis II in Monaco. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make picks on player projections, game winners, over/unders, spreads, and more.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Monaco vs. PSG Prediction, Picks
Under manager Sébastien Pocognoli, Monaco sits at 2-4-2 in the Champions League league phase. Their mixed European form has left them scrambling for survival in the first leg of this playoff format, though they remain dangerous at Stade Louis-II, where their attack can catch elite sides off guard.
Paris Saint-Germain, meanwhile, boasts a 4-2-2 record under manager Luis Enrique's continued reign. The capital club has dominated Ligue 1 once again while navigating the revamped Champions League with poise, backed by world-class talent across the pitch and a defense that has tightened considerably in recent months.
Tuesday marks another chapter in one of French football's most compelling rivalries. PSG holds the historical edge in competitive fixtures, but Monaco has proven they can rise to the occasion when the brightest lights of European football shine on the Côte d'Azur. With a spot in the Round of 16 on the line, both sides know there's no margin for error in the first leg of this playoff clash.
Monaco vs. PSG Game Winner Payout
PSG enters Tuesday’s game as a road favorite, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Monaco is a home underdog with a 5x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Game Winner Payout: PSG 1.51x | Tie 4.16x | Monaco 5x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Monaco vs. PSG Prediction on Game Winner
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Monaco vs. PSG prediction on Tuesday, February 17.
- PSG has the edge on pedigree, winning ten of their last 15 Champions League knockout matches, a trend that typically shows up in tight two-legged ties like this.
- Monaco has quietly been stubborn at Stade Louis-II in Europe, unbeaten in their last four UCL home matches (one win, three draws) and posting clean sheets in each of the last three.
- Form favors the visitors over the long haul, with Monaco logging just two wins in their last eight matches across all competitions (three draws, three losses).
- PSG’s road profile in this competition is strong with seven wins in their last ten Champions League away matches (one draw, two losses).
- PSG has managed only one win in their last six trips to Monaco, including a 1-0 loss there in November 2025.
- Monaco’s home resilience vs. PSG’s knockout experience makes for an interesting matchup, but it projects as a 1-goal margin type of night.
Monaco vs. PSG Picks for PrizePicks Today: Tuesday, February 17th
Here are two top Monaco vs. PSG picks to target for Tuesday, February 17th on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Ousmane Dembélé and Simon Adingra.
PSG Ousmane Dembélé vs. Monaco Projection: 4.5 Shots
- Dembélé has been PSG’s highest-volume shooter in Ligue 1, leading the squad at 3.8 shots per 90 minutes.
- His season shot profile is steady rather than spike-driven: 27 total shots in 14 Ligue 1 matches (3.53 shots per 90) with 12 on target (1.57 on target per 90).
- Monaco’s defensive numbers point to chances allowed, conceding 1.43 expected goals against per match, and 1.55 actual goals conceded per match).
- In the Champions League this season, Monaco has conceded 14 goals (1.75 per match), exactly the type of matchup where PSG’s primary shot-takers can stack volume.
Monaco Simon Adingra vs. PSG Projection: 0.5 Shots
- Adingra’s official player sheet has him at 1.09 shots on target per match (2 total SOT).
- The finishing profile is trending up after his brace vs Nantes, including a curled right-footed strike that signals he’s not just arriving late, but actively hunting shots from the wing.
- Availability matters for shot props, and reports indicate the winter signing is set to feature against PSG on Tuesday, keeping his minutes floor high enough to generate at least one look.
- PSG haven’t been spotless in Europe (11 goals conceded, 1.38 per match), and that level of concession typically leaves opposing wide forwards opportunities to get a shot away, even in games where PSG controls long spells of possession.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Monaco vs. PSG Picks on PrizePicks
Monaco vs. PSG picks are just one of many ways UEFA Champions League fans can get in on the action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued UEFA Champions League predictions, picks, and news.
