The 2026 college football season rolls into Week 2 with the #23 Missouri Tigers traveling to Lawrence to take on the Kansas Jayhawks under the Friday night lights at 8 p.m. ET on FOX. The Tigers enter as 5.5-point road favorites, via PrizePicks.
Both teams enter the matchup with 1-0 records after dominant season openers. Missouri cruised past Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14, while Kansas demolished LIU by a final score of 51-6.
Can the Jayhawks take advantage of their home-field advantage and pull off the upset, or will Missouri continue its strong start and leave Lawrence with another Border War victory?
Below, we’ll break down our Missouri vs. Kansas prediction and picks for Friday’s college football game, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Missouri vs. Kansas picks on PrizePicks now!
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#23 Missouri vs. Kansas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 11
The Tigers were led in their first game of the year by QB Austin Simmons, who had an outstanding debut after transferring from Ole Miss. He completed 17 of 19 passes for 252 yards and 4 TDs before leaving early.
Simmons also showed that Missouri's passing game could be much more aggressive under new OC Chip Lindsey; the signal-caller averaged 13.2 yards per attempt.
Missouri's biggest concern coming out of Week 1 was its rushing attack. Star RB Ahmad Hardy remains unavailable while recovering from an offseason injury, and the Tigers managed 205 rushing yards as a team. However, left tackle Cayden Green is expected to return after missing the opener, which should help tonight.
Kansas gained 613 total yards in the blowout triumph over LIU, including 246 passing yards from new starting QB Isaiah Marshall. The redshirt sophomore completed 14 of 19 passes for 2 TDs while adding 49 yards on the ground.
The Jayhawks also received an explosive performance from WR Nik McMillan, who caught 6 passes for 130 yards, while RB Yasin Willis added 72 rushing yards and 2 TDs. These two alone give the Jayhawks plenty of playmaking ability approaching their first major test.
The problem is that Missouri represents a significant jump in competition. The Tigers return a talented defense that ranked among the nation's best in several categories last season, including both EPA/pass (24th) and EPA/rush (16th), via Game on Paper.
This is one of the most heated rivalries in college football. Missouri leads the all-time series 57-55-9 after winning last year's matchup 42-31. Friday marks Missouri's first trip to Lawrence since 2005, adding another layer to what should be one of the most anticipated games of Week 2.
Missouri vs. Kansas Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 11
Missouri enters Friday’s game as a 5.5-point favorite against Kansas via PrizePicks, returning a 1.42x payout with an outright win.
Here are the full payouts for Missouri vs. Kansas on PrizePicks.
Make your Missouri vs. Kansas prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Missouri vs. Kansas Prediction on Spread – 9/11/26
Here are the key stats and advanced analytics behind our Missouri vs. Kansas prediction on the spread for Friday, September 11.
- Missouri went 7-5-0 (58.3%) against the spread (ATS) in 2025, while Kansas went 5-7-0 (41.7%).
- The Tigers posted a +0.27 adjusted EPA/play a season ago (18th nationally), with Kansas slotting in at +0.10 (56th).
- Mizzou's biggest advantage comes on the defensive side of the ball after finishing last year ceding just -0.22 EPA/play (eighth).
- The Jayhawks closed with a mark of 0.04, just 96th out of 136 FBS programs, highlighting their defensive shortcomings.
- Even though they will be without Hardy tonight, this was still a Missouri offense that ranked 14th in EPA/rush and now gets to take on a Kansas defense that couldn't stop a cold last season, ranking 78th nationally in EPA/run (+0.10).
Lock in your Missouri vs. Kansas prediction on PrizePicks before Friday’s game.
Missouri vs. Kansas Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/11/26
Here are the top Missouri vs. Kansas picks to target on Friday, September 11. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include QBs Austin Simmons and Isaiah Marshall.
Missouri QB Austin Simmons vs. Kansas: 228.5 Pass Yards
- The part I’m most interested in from Simmons' Mizzou debut was him completing 9 of 10 passes of at least 10 yards for 199 yards. This type of explosiveness is crucial to putting up big yardage numbers.
- According to Game on Paper, Kansas' defense allowed +0.24 EPA/pass (118th nationally) in 2025.
- Simmons' 252 passing yards in Week 1 came despite playing only the first half, meaning he cleared this projection with significantly less than a full game's worth of opportunity.
- Kansas has an offense that can keep the game competitive. If the Hawks can score consistently, Missouri should have little reason to completely shut down its passing attack, especially down Hardy still.
Add Austin Simmons to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall vs. Missouri: 184.5 Pass Yards
- Much like his counterpart, Marshall was aggressive downfield all game against LIU, averaging 12.9 yards per attempt with an 11.9-yard average depth of target.
- The deep-ball numbers are especially encouraging. Marshall went 3-of-4 for 112 yards on throws of 20+ yards, earning a 96.3 passing grade on those throws. Now, he will get the opportunity against a stout but new-look Missouri secondary.
- Missouri has three new starters at CB, including Chris Graves Jr., Khalil Florence, and Sione Laulea. This will be their first real test against a QB who showed excellent deep-ball accuracy and willingness in Week 1.
- Game script may help Marshall, too, as a 5.5-point underdog. If Kansas falls behind, Marshall he'd theoretically have ample opportunities to exceed this number.
Add Isaiah Marshall to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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College football Week 2 continues Friday night with one of the sport's oldest rivalries when Missouri travels to Lawrence to take on Kansas.
The Tigers started their season with a bang, putting up 54 points behind a spectacular debut from Austin Simmons. Kansas was equally impressive in its 51-6 win over LIU. Who will come out on top in this year’s version of the Border War?
Don't wait until kickoff — make your Missouri vs. Kansas picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the board, so you can make predictions on yards, field goals, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
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Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.
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