Mexico vs. England Prediction, World Cup Picks, Lineups for Round of 16

Mexico and England meet in the World Cup Round of 16 on Sunday, July 5, at Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, Mexico, with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX. England is favored to advance, with a 1.81x payout on PrizePicks, while the underdog Mexico has a 1.92x payout.

England entered the tournament as one of the overall favorites, but their recent performances have been less than convincing. Injuries are now also a concern for a squad that had question marks around its composition.

Mexico are playing their fourth of five matches at Azteca, and they've never lost a World Cup match in the legendary stadium. El Tri comes in riding a 26-match unbeaten streak at the high-altitude venue and has yet to concede a goal in this competition.

Below, we’ll break down our Mexico vs. England prediction and picks for Sunday night’s World Cup Round of 16 match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mexico vs. England prediction and World Cup picks on PrizePicks now! 

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Mexico vs. England Prediction, Spread, Over/Under — Sunday, July 5

How to watch Mexico vs. England: FOX (English) / Peacock & Telemundo (Spanish)

Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET

Azteca Stadium: Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico

When this tournament started, not many people gave Mexico much of a look. There were questions about whether they were primed for an upset in Group A and if their lack of success the past few years could be overcome.

Mexico has put an end to all the questions. They come into today’s match unbeaten in their last 12, with 10 wins in that span, including seven consecutive fixtures. They drew in friendlies in the spring with Portugal and Belgium, behind a stout defensive setup.

That defense has yet to be breached at World Cup 2026. They’ve conceded 1 goal during their seven-match winning run and just 2 goals overall in their last 12 matches. Their -2.26 goals vs. expected is the second-best defensive mark in the tournament, behind only Scotland, and they rank third in xG per shot (0.07) and shots on target allowed (6) defensively.

That defense presents a problem for England, especially since manager Thomas Tuchel decided to leave key players at home. The Three Lions have struggled to break down compact defenses, needing a half hour to simply register a shot against DR Congo.

With the likes of playmaking midfielders Cole Palmer and Morgan Gibbs-White watching from across the pond, it’s been left to ST Harry Kane to make things happen. The Golden Boot contender's individual brilliance is why England are still playing, as he accounted for 1.18 of England’s 2.44 xGOT against DR Congo and scored both goals in the final quarter hour. 

Tuchel’s decision to leave Trent Alexander-Arnold at home is also problematic, as an injury to RB Reece James leaves them paper thin at the position. Djed Spence started against DR Congo and had an unspeakably bad outing and was ruled out as a starter earlier today due to injury.  

Look for Mexico to exploit that matchup early and often through LW Julián Quiñones. He’s coming off a 33-goal season in the Saudi Pro League and has been terrorizing defenses in this tournament. He scored the opening goal of the World Cup and scored or assisted in four of Mexico’s 8 goals. 

England could move CM Declan Rice out to right back as he did late against DR Congo, but doing so would cede a fair amount of midfield control to Mexico. England have operated with the fourth-highest possession rate of any nation, so it’s unlikely Tuchel would make that move from the start. That means we’re likely to see CB Jarell Quansah shift to the right.

Mexico will have to be wary of England’s set piece prowess. The Three Lions lead the tournament with 21 headed shots, 3 of which have resulted in goals. Mexico sits just behind England in aerial duel win rate, so that battle will be key to determining the outcome.

The one aspect of this match that can’t be quantified is Azteca. The elevation’s thin air does a number on opposing players, and England players have shown they’re not big fans of the heat and humidity that they’ll encounter.

It’s also a house of horror for the Three Lions. The infamous “Hand of God” goal was scored here by Diego Maradona in their meeting at the 1986 World Cup, and minutes later he scored what is considered to be the greatest World Cup goal ever to send them home.

This will be Mexico’s 90th ever competitive fixture at Azteca. If England hopes to hand Mexico only its third loss in the iconic venue, they’ll have to find a way to navigate both their opponent and the elements. 

Mexico vs. England: Favorite to Advance, Spread, Total Goals for World Cup Round of 16

England enters Sunday’s match as favorites, returning a 1.81x payout if they advance, via PrizePicks Team Picks. Meanwhile, Mexico will look to utilize the conditions and their electric home atmosphere to continue their run on home soil.

Here are the full payouts for the Mexico vs. England match on PrizePicks.

To Advance: Mexico – 1.92x | England – 1.81x

90-Minute Winner: Mexico – 2.85x | Draw – 2.94x | England – 2.38x

Spread: England -1.5 (5x Payout) 

Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 2.32x | Under 1.56x)

Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.85x | No 1.88x

Make your Mexico vs. England spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks —available in 35 states!

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included.

Mexico vs. England Prediction on Total Goals for World Cup Round of 16

Here are the key stats and trends for Mexico vs. England before making your World Cup 2026 predictions on PrizePicks.

• Only Spain and Argentina have conceded less xG per match than Mexico and England. El Tri is allowing 0.56 xG per contest, slightly ahead of the 0.58 mark posted by the Three Lions. 
• Both teams are allowing just 8 shots per contest.
• Mexico has conceded an average of 1.5 SOT per match and has yet to concede a goal.
• England is allowing just 2.5 SOT per match and 0.07 xG per shot.   
• The Three Lions rank fourth among all nations with 9.2 PPDA, operating with a high defensive line that is forcing 8 high turnovers per match.
• England’s 37.25 penalty touches per match are the sixth-most at the tournament. However, they’ve converted their shots at just a 10.81% rate.

Lock in your Mexico vs. England prediction for the 2026 World Cup Now!

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Mexico vs. England Lineups for World Cup Round of 16 – Sunday, July 5

Here are the projected Mexico vs. England lineups for today's World Cup Round of 16 match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.

Mexico Lineup vs. England Today

Projected Formation: 4-3-3

• Goalkeeper: Raúl Rangel
• Defense: Jorge Sánchez, César Montes, Johan Vásquez, Jesús Gallardo
• Midfield: Gilberto Mora, Érik Lira, Luis Romo
• Forwards: Roberto Alvarado, Raúl Jiménez, Julián Quiñones

England Lineup vs. Mexico Today

Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford
• Defense: Jarell Quansah, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Nico O’Reilly
• Midfield: Eliot Anderson, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham
• Forwards: Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane, Anthony Gordon

Mexico vs. England Picks, Player Stats for World Cup: 7/5/26

Here are the top Mexico vs. England player picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, July 5. Today’s World Cup 2026 picks are headlined by Harry Kane and Julián Quiñones.

PrizePicks is adding to the hype for one of the best World Cup Round of 16 matchups with Sunday's special Discount on Harry Kane's shots, dropping his standard 3 projected shots to 1.5 for a limited time!

England ST Harry Kane Pick vs. Mexico: 1.5 Shots (Discount) 

• Harry Kane ranks fourth at the World Cup with 1.27 goals per match, doing so while averaging 4.58 shots and 2.29 shots on target per match.
• Kane has taken 3 shots or more in each of his last seven starts for England. He’s totaled 28 shots over those seven outings. 
• England as a team is averaging 18.5 shots per match, fifth-most of any nation. 
• Kane has a propensity to drop back into midfield to get on the ball and has no qualms about shooting from distance. 
• PrizePicks is discounting Kane’s shots attempted from 3 to 1.5 for today’s England World Cup game.
• Discounts lower a player projection for a limited time, making the More easier to hit than the original number.

Combine England + Harry Kane World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks

Mexico LW Julián Quiñones Pick vs. England: 11.5 Fantasy Score 

• Julián Quiñones has attempted 8 dribbles, 11 shots, and made 3 tackles in four World Cup starts so far. 
• Quiñones has also put at least 1 shot on target in all four matches. From those, he’s scored 3 goals.
• He also has 1 assist and is averaging 1.89 chances created per match.
• The England defense has struggled on their right side, and the injuries adding up are causing some problems with manning the RB position. DR Congo LW Brian Cipenga had a field day against England, scoring their only goal while attempting 4 dribbles, making 2 tackles, and recovering the ball 5 times.
• Quiñones has at least 19.75 fantasy points in three of his four World Cup matches. 

Combine Mexico + Julián Quiñones World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks

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Make Your Mexico vs. England Prediction on PrizePicks

England are primed for a possible upset against Mexico as they enter the Azteca Stadium tonight. Will the Three Lions find a way to break through the Mexican defense and overcome the elements and the crowd, or will El Tri keep marching on as a host nation into the quarterfinals? 

Don’t wait until lock. Make your Mexico vs. England picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

Pick World Cup players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on World Cup match winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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