The 2026 World Cup is heading into the Round of 16 today, and with it we have an updated look at the race for the Golden Boot.
France has looked like a juggernaut thus far, and Kylian Mbappé has been front and center with 8 goal involvements. His 6 goals put him 1 behind Lionel Messi for the tournament lead, while Harry Kane and Erling Haaland are just behind with 5 goals each. Three active players — Ousmane Dembélé, Vinícius Júnior, and Mikel Oyarzabal — sit on 4 goals.
Below, we’ll break down some of the top players for the Golden Boot race based on the implied odds, via PrizePicks Team Picks, and explain why they might end up as the top goalscorer at the 2026 World Cup as we head into the Round of 16.
Throughout the 2026 World Cup, you can make real-money predictions on players like Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappé to win the Golden Boot, score goals in individual matches, and more on PrizePicks.
Make your 2026 World Cup Golden Boot winner prediction on PrizePicks
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2026 World Cup Golden Boot Prediction, Favorites to Win
Four rounds of matches are in the books, and four more lie ahead. The 16 remaining nations kick off their quest on Saturday, with the stakes getting higher and the matchups getting far more intense.
Lionel Messi still stands atop the leaderboard, but the field is gaining ground, and Kylian Mbappé has surpassed him in the implied odds leaderboard. Whose nation will hang around long enough to catch Messi?
The players listed below are currently the favorites to win the award at PrizePicks Team Picks. The list consists only of players whose teams have not yet been eliminated.
Find more daily World Cup predictions and expert picks here
2026 World Cup Golden Boot Winner Favorites: Mbappé The New Favorite
Here are the updated 2026 World Cup Golden Boot favorites to win the award, via PrizePicks Team Picks, including their payouts if you predict them to win.
Payouts from TeamPicks are live as of publishing but are subject to change. Payouts listed below (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 4x on a $100 entry would pay out $400 on PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Kylian Mbappé, France – Yes 1.85x | No 1.88x
- Lionel Messi, Argentina – Yes 2.43x | No 1.51x
- Harry Kane, England – Yes 10x | No 1.03x
- Erling Haaland, Norway – Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
- Ousmane Dembélé, France – Yes 22.22x | No N/A
- Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain – Yes 22.22x | No N/A
- Vinícius Júnior, Brazil – Yes 33.33x | No N/A
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FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winners List, History
Here is a complete list of past World Cup Golden Boot winner for comparison to the current standings. Please note, this year’s tournament is expanded to 48 teams, which means an additional round of matches in the knockout stage.
The award for the World Cup’s top goal scorer was officially given out for the first time at the 1982 World Cup, where it was called the Golden Shoe. In 2010, the award was renamed the Golden Boot.
Results below will only track since the award was created in 1982. That said, the record for most goals in a World Cup is Just Fontaine in 1958, who scored 13 goals for France.
- 2022: Kylian Mbappé, France – 8 Goals
- 2018: Harry Kane, England – 6 Goals
- 2014: James Rodríguez, Colombia – 6 Goals
- 2010: Thomas Müller, Germany – 5 Goals
- 2006: Miroslav Klose, Germany – 5 Goals
- 2002: Ronaldo, Brazil – 8 Goals
- 1998: Davor Šuker, Croatia – 6 Goals
- 1994: Oleg Salenko, Russia – 6 Goals; Hristo Stoichkov, Bulgaria – 6 Goals
- 1990: Salvatore “Totò” Schillaci, Italy – 6 Goals
- 1986: Gary Lineker, England – 6 Goals
- 1982: Paolo Rossi, Italy – 6 Goals
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2026 World Cup Golden Boot Predictions, Pick to Win
Here are three players to consider for your 2026 World Cup Golden Boot picks on PrizePicks Team Picks heading into the knockout rounds, led by Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi, with a longer-odds option at the end.
Kylian Mbappé, France – 6 Goals
Kylian Mbappé World Cup Golden Boot Winner Payout: Yes 1.85x | No 1.88x
The French attack looked like it never got out of second gear against Sweden and still led them to a 3-0 win in the Round of 32. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring on the stroke of halftime to cap a first half where France took 15 shots and tested the goalkeeper 6 times and later added a second goal 16 minutes from time to seal the win.
The brace was Mbappé’s third of the tournament and gives him 2 goal involvements in all four of France’s fixtures thus far. They have outscored opponents 13-2 and look like the clear favorites to win the 2026 World Cup.
France are about to take on a Paraguay side that, while coming off an upset over Germany, have already been put to the sword once in this tournament. The United States beat them 4-1 in the opening match of the group stage, and France’s front four will utilize rotations and movement to punish them just as the Americans did.
Michael Olise’s 11 through balls are the most of any player at the World Cup, and he’s been linking up repeatedly with Mbappé in the penalty area. If that continues, it keeps Mbappé’s scoring chances elevated.
Combine that with France looking nearly unstoppable, and it makes sense why he’s now the favorite to finish the tournament as the top goalscorer.
Pick Kylian Mbappé to win the World Cup Golden Boot on PrizePicks
Lionel Messi, Argentina – 7 Goals
Lionel Messi World Cup Golden Boot Winner Payout: Yes 2.43x | No 1.51x
Lionel Messi is somewhat fortunate to still be participating in the World Cup. Cape Verde took Argentina to the brink on Friday night, falling just short in one of the most exciting World Cup matches in recent memory.
Once again, Messi was the primary scoring threat for the defending world champions. His opener in the 3-2 victory makes him responsible for 7 of their 10 goals, not counting the own goal they picked up in extra time.
Messi’s 15 shots on target are the most of any player in the competition, and he’s posting an outstanding 29.17% conversion rate. He’s also doing this despite just 21 touches in the penalty area, with 4 of his goals coming from outside the box.
So why has Messi dipped in the implied odds despite the advantage? One reason is Argentina’s path to the final. After they face Egypt, their next match could be against Colombia. The two nations have met three times in the past two years, all in competitive fixtures.
Not only have the teams evenly split the matches 1-1-1, but Argentina’s sole victory came in extra time. Colombia has also held Argentina to just 1 goal in all three contests, with Messi scoring just 1 goal in 144 minutes on the pitch.
Messi is still thriving, running the Argentine attack, and remains a threat. But if his fellow attackers don’t step up to help, his run at the Golden Boot could end short of the final.
Pick Lionel Messi to win the World Cup Golden Boot on PrizePicks
Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain – 4 Goals
Mikel Oyarzabal World Cup Golden Boot Winner Payout: Yes 22.22x | No N/A
Why do I have a player who is 3 goals behind Messi in the scoring table as one of the favorites when there are others like Erling Haaland and Harry Kane ahead of him? I’ll give you a one-word answer: opportunity.
When you get the ball inside the penalty box, that creates opportunity. No player at the World Cup has more touches in the box after four matches than Mikel Oyarzabal.
The Spanish striker’s 36 touches inside the penalty area are 1 more than Vini Jr., 5 more than Mbappé, and 15 more than Messi. And he’s done that playing 50 fewer minutes than Vini Jr.
He’s turned those touches into 17 shots, 2 of which have been blocked. Of the other 15, he put 8 on target and found the back of the net 4 times.
His movement against Austria was outstanding, holding a run for the opener to provide a target for Marc Cucurella’s low cross and opening his body for an outstanding finish. He bagged a brace in the final minute of regulation with another excellently timed run.
Defenses are focusing heavily on Lamine Yamal, which is creating more space for Oyarzabal to operate.
With Spain looking like the only team at the moment that could possibly derail France, it creates the opportunity for four more matches to move up the goalscoring leaderboard — and an opportunity for a large payout should you back him now.
Pick Mikel Oyarzabal to win the World Cup Golden Boot on PrizePicks
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Make World Cup Golden Boot Winner Predictions on PrizePicks
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 begins on Saturday, and Lionel Messi’s lead atop the Golden Boot standings is down to just 1 goal over Kylian Mbappé. With the quarterfinals looming, this could be your final chance to pick up some value on anybody who you believe might catch the two clear favorites.
No matter who you think scores the most goals in the 2026 World Cup, you can make your Golden Boot prediction on PrizePicks and get paid if you’re right.
On PrizePicks Team Picks, make picks on World Cup futures, game winners, totals, and more — now available in 35 states, including California, Florida, and Texas.
Stay locked in on Playbook during the 2026 World Cup for our expert predictions, picks, and analysis for every match and more.
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