How Many Goals Will Lionel Messi Score in World Cup 2026? Argentina Prediction

Argentina are the defending World Cup champions, and their captain Lionel Messi is running it back one last time in the blue and white. At 35 years young, he continued to play at a world-class level at the 2022 World Cup. Turning 39 on June 24, does Messi have more in the tank?

Lionel Messi is projected to score 3.5 goals in the World Cup on PrizePicks, and he continues to chase his first World Cup Golden Boot with a 14.28x payout to win the award. But will Lionel Messi go More or Less than his projected goal total for the tournament?

Below, we’ll break down how many goals Lionel Messi could score in the 2026 World Cup, including projections on PrizePicks. How could Lionel Messi fare for Argentina in the upcoming tournament, starting on June 11?

Before and during the 2026 World Cup, you can make real-money predictions on players like Messi to score goals, tally assists, win the Golden Boot, and more on PrizePicks.

Make Lionel Messi World Cup picks on PrizePicks now.

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How Many Goals Will Lionel Messi Score for Argentina?

Since 2023, Lionel has played in the MLS for Inter Miami CF. He’s been plenty productive in the United States, leading the MLS with 19 goal involvements over 14 appearances, while his 10.44 expected goals top the league in 2026, per FotMob.

However, the MLS doesn’t provide nearly the same competition as powerhouse leagues in Europe.

Messi played in 12 of Argentina’s 18 2026 World Cup qualifiers, scoring 8 goals in his appearances. He registered 45 shots over those 12 games (3.8 shots per fixture), which was slightly behind his 4.6 shots per match in the 2022 World Cup.

He was Argentina’s primary penalty taker in the 2022 World Cup, scoring 4 of his 7 goals thanks to penalty opportunities. His role as the team’s primary penalty taker and free-kick operator will likely continue to this year’s tournament.

Argentina is expected to stick to their 4-3-3 formation, deploying Messi at right wing alongside ST Julian Alvarez and LW Thiago Almada. Messi is expected to fill a 10 position, giving him the freedom to operate between the midfielders and forwards.

With that said, Argentina is still planning to lean on Messi’s extraordinary playmaking, meaning plenty of touches and the ability to contribute to goals, whether it’s his own scores or assists, should still be present.

Managed minutes in the hot summer weather is something to watch for the 38-year-old, especially if La Albiceleste is coasting in Group J — which includes Austria, Algeria, and Jordan.

After an injury scare during competition with Inter Miami, the latest Messi injury update expects him to be fit for the upcoming tournament. After not playing in a friendly against Honduras on June 6, Argentina is expected to feature Messi in a friendly fixture vs. Iceland on Tuesday, June 9.

The defending champions are expected to contend, as PrizePicks Team Picks tabs Argentina with the fifth-shortest payout to win the 2026 World Cup (8.33x).

Lionel Messi World Cup Picks, Payouts for PrizePicks

Here are the available markets and payouts for Lionel Messi goals and more for Argentina in the 2026 World Cup on PrizePicks Player Picks and Team Picks.

Lionel Messi Goals in 2026 World Cup: 3.5 Goals

Lionel Messi to Win Golden Boot: Yes 14.28x | No 1.02x

Lionel Messi to Win Golden Ball: Yes 10x | No 1.03x

Argentina to Advance to Knockout Stage: Yes 1.01x | No 16.66x

Argentina to Win Group J: Yes 1.35x | No 3.03x

Argentina to Advance to Round of 16: Yes 1.38x | No 2.85x‍

Argentina to Advance to Quarterfinals: Yes 1.78x | No 1.96x

Argentina to Advance to Semifinals: Yes 2.77x | No 1.4x

Argentina to Advance to Final: Yes 4.54x | No 1.17x‍

Argentina to Win 2026 Men’s World Cup: Yes 8.33x | No 1.06x

PrizePicks payouts show how much a correct prediction can return. For example, a 2x payout on a $100 entry would return $200 on PrizePicks Team Picks.

The lower the payout multiplier, the more likely the outcome is based on user picks. Payouts are live as of writing but are subject to change. 

Lock in Lionel Messi picks for the 2026 World Cup on PrizePicks before June 11!

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Argentina World Cup Outlook: How Far Will Argentina Go?

As the favorite to win Group J (1.35x payout) on PrizePicks Team Picks, Argentina is expected to advance to the knockout stage. According to FIFA’s rankings, Argentina ranks first, followed by Austria (24th), Algeria (28th), and Jordan (63rd). 

With that said, La Albiceleste could be a heavy favorite in all three qualifying matches, providing Messi with opportunities to rack up goals. For example, PrizePicks Team Picks gives Algeria a 7.14x payout to win vs. Argentina on June 16. 

There’s a good chance Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni’s team goes 3-0 in this group. If that’s the case, the winner of Group J will face the runner-up from Group H in the Round of 32. That could be Uruguay, which may favor goals with their aggressive approach of sending most of their pieces up the pitch when possessing the ball.

PrizePicks Team Picks gives Argentina the fourth-shortest payout to advance to the semifinals (2.77x) and are among the top five favorites to win the tournament.

Argentina F Lionel Messi World Cup Pick: 3.5 Goals 

As if one of the greats needed more for his resume, Messi is looking to make more history in World Cup 2026. His 26 appearances are already the most in World Cup history. He’s 4 goals away from setting the goalscorer record and needs 1 more assist to surpass fellow Argentinian Diego Maradona as the all-time assist leader in World Cup play.

In the 2022 World Cup, Argentina’s captain netted 7 goals paired with 3 assists in their seven-game march to the country’s first World Cup title since 1986.

A potential deep run paired with taking penalty shots are two huge boosts to Messi’s potential goal total for World Cup 2026. Furthermore, Argentina continues to build its system around the football legend, placing him into a free-flowing 10 role.

ST Julian Alvarez and LW Thiago Almada are players to watch, as the 26- and 25-year-olds could be primed for breakout performances on the international stage. But this team still runs through Messi.

If Argentina makes another deep run in the World Cup, Messi will likely make more football history and would add to his GOAT status if they go back-to-back — which was last done by Brazil in 1958 and 1962.

Add Lionel Messi to your 2026 World Cup Picks on PrizePicks!

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Make 2026 World Cup Picks on PrizePicks

Argentina is seeking back-to-back World Cup titles, and Lionel Messi seems more than capable of playing at a high level in his last hurrah. In a system built around Messi’s creativity, will Argentina’s captain follow his 7-goal 2022 performance with another lofty goal total in World Cup 2026?

You can make your 2026 World Cup picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on World Cup games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct. 

With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states. 

Stick around with the Playbook for continued World Cup predictions, picks, and analysis through the end of the tournament.