Mets vs. Rangers Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, September 23

First pitch for the New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers game is set for 8:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 23, with the Mets entering as slight road favorites and returning a 1.85x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

Today’s game is the second of a three-game series between these two teams. New York enters Wednesday at 72-85 and has already been eliminated from playoff contention, while Texas sits at 78-79 and is fighting for the American League West title with just five games remaining after tonight.

Below, we'll break down our Mets vs. Rangers prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mets vs. Rangers picks on PrizePicks now.

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Mets vs. Rangers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 23

The Rangers' playoff situation became significantly more urgent Tuesday when New York rallied for a 6-3 victory. That loss tied Texas with Houston for first place in the AL West. The Astros own the head-to-head tiebreaker, meaning the Rangers need to finish ahead of them to win the division.

The Mets, meanwhile, are playing spoiler after already being eliminated from postseason contention. New York can put even more pressure on Texas with another victory Wednesday.

The Rangers will send LHP Cody Bradford to the mound, while the Mets counter with rookie RHP Nolan McLean. McLean has been one of the NL's better young pitchers thus far.

Bradford, meanwhile, is making his first full-season contribution after returning from left elbow surgery. He's posted a 4.19 ERA in 2026, but his 5.13 xERA is concern for his future viability.

Mets vs. Rangers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, September 23

The Mets enter Wednesday’s game as slight road favorites against the Rangers, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Mets vs. Rangers game on PrizePicks.

Play the Mets vs. Rangers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mets vs. Rangers Prediction on Winner – 9/23/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mets vs. Rangers prediction on the winner for Wednesday, September 23.

Lock in your Mets vs. Rangers prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Texas logged just 1 official error last night, but if you watched, their defense was a mess. They failed to turn routine double plays that led to runs and couldn't hold runners to their respective bases on deep fly balls. 
• The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the Metropolitans. McLean has an xFIP (3.65) that is over a run and a half better than Bradford’s (5.26).
• Bradford also owns a suspiciously low 6.7% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio, which could be due for some serious negative regression, especially against a New York offense that has shown plenty of power and ranks ninth in MLB with 194 home runs entering Wednesday.
• The Rangers' offense has struggled to consistently turn its opportunities into output, scoring just 3 runs in Tuesday's loss while going 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
• Over the last two weeks, the Mets own the 10th-best offense by wRC+ (108), compared to the Rangers at 20th (90).
• In that same span, the Mets' bullpen is eighth-best with an xFIP of 3.85, while the Rangers are once again below average (4.64 xFIP, 24th).

Mets vs. Rangers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/23/26

Here are the top Mets vs. Rangers picks to target on Wednesday, September 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Cody Bradford and Nolan McLean.

Rangers P Cody Bradford vs. Mets: 3 Strikeouts

• Bradford owns an atrocious 4.66 K/9, backed by an equally poor 7.2% swinging strike rate.
• With stats like that, it's no surprise he hasn't surpassed 3 strikeouts in any of his last five starts.
• Now he faces a Mets team that is swinging the bat well and also owns the sixth-lowest strikeout rate (19.5%) in the majors over the last two weeks.
• With this an absolute must-win game for the Rangers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradford pulled at the first sign of trouble, which would strongly limit his upside in both innings pitched and strikeouts. 

Add Cody Bradford + Rangers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Mets P Nolan McLean vs. Rangers: 5.5 Strikeouts

• McLean enters Wednesday with 189 strikeouts in 172.2 innings, averaging nearly 9.9 K/9.
• He catches a fantastic matchup against a Rangers team that's striking out 26.5% of the time over the last two weeks, the fourth most in the majors.
• McLean has surpassed this projection in 20 of his 30 starts.
• The Mets righty has thrown at least 90 pitches in five of his last six outings, including at least 100 pitches in three of them.
• The Mets' starter last night, LHP Sean Manaea, went well above his strikeout projection by ending with 9 punchouts against this same cold and free-swinging Rangers lineup.

Add Nolan McLean + Mets to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Mets vs. Rangers Picks on PrizePicks

The Rangers enter Wednesday with their backs against the wall after Tuesday's loss, tied with Houston atop the AL West and failing to own the divisional tiebreaker. Tuesday's 6-3 victory showed that New York isn't simply rolling over during the final week of the season.

Will McLean continue his excellent rookie campaign against a Rangers lineup desperate for a win, or can Texas' bats take advantage of the right-hander and keep the division hopes alive?

Don't wait until lock — make your Mets vs. Rangers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right. Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you're right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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