Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday Night Baseball – 6/21/26

Sunday Night Baseball is headlined by an NL East rivalry between the New York Mets (34-42) and Philadelphia Phillies (41-35) tonight at 7:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Phillies feature a 1.53x payout to win as the favorite tonight.

The three-game series is currently split, with the Mets winning 6-4 on Thursday, followed by a 15-3 answer from the Phillies on Saturday. In tonight’s rubber match, who will grab the series win in the first head-to-head clash of the season?

Sunday Night Baseball brings a rubber match between divisional rivals under the lights, brewing the perfect matchup for primetime. Let’s make a Mets vs. Phillies prediction, including the winner payouts, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mets vs. Phillies picks for Sunday Night Baseball on PrizePicks now.

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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Sunday, June 21

Mets put SP Freddy Peralta on the mound in Game 2 of the series, and the two-time All-Star was shredded for an absurd 10 hits and 10 earned runs, as he exited the game in the third inning. Philadelphia continued to rake away, totaling 17 hits and 4 home runs in the 15-3 win.

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber was the head of the snake with 3 HRs on the night, adding a cushion to his league-high 28 big flies. Will New York answer by limiting Philly’s slugging on Sunday Night Baseball?

Mets SP David Peterson (3-5, 4.10 xFIP in 64.0 IP) doesn’t instill much confidence with his 5.91 ERA while allowing 9 combined earned runs over his previous two appearances as a reliever.

Philadelphia should have the clear advantage on the bump tonight, as Phillies SP Zack Wheeler (6-1, 3.27 xFIP in 62.2 IP) makes his 11th start on Sunday. He sports an elite 2.01 ERA and solid 3.04 xERA, helping drive a potential All-Star bid (via FanGraphs).

As clear underdogs, will the Mets find a way to rebound from Saturday’s beatdown?

Mets vs. Phillies Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, June 21

For Sunday Night Baseball, the Phillies are favored with a 1.53x payout at home vs. the Mets. Despite back-to-back high-scoring affairs in the series, tonight’s over/under is still only 8.5.

Here are the full payouts for the Mets vs. Phillies game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (2.04x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (2x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Mets 2.38x | Phillies 1.53x

Make your Mets vs. Phillies prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction on Spread for Sunday Night Baseball – 6/21/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mets vs. Phillies prediction on the spread for Sunday Night Baseball.

Lock in your Mets vs. Phillies prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

• While the Phillies are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, they’ve won by multiple runs in their last three victories, carrying an average margin of +8.3 runs per game in that split.
• Further, eight of Philly’s last nine wins came by multiple runs.
• The Mets are also 5-5 in the past 10 contests, and their previous five losses were by an average margin of -7.0 runs per game.
• With Zack Wheeler on the mound, the Phillies are 8-2, winning those games by +3.3 runs per matchup.
• Adding to the Mets’ concerns, David Peterson ceded 3 home runs over his last two appearances. We mentioned the Phillies’ 4 HRs on Saturday, and they log 1.28 dingers per contest on the season (eighth).
• According to Baseball Savant, Wheeler’s four-seam fastball (38.2%) and sinker (16.6%) are his most-used pitches. New York ranks 27th and 30th in runs above average against the two pitches.

Mets vs. Phillies Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 6/21/26

Here are top Mets vs. Phillies picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, June 21. Tonight’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Kyle Schwarber and Zack Wheeler.

Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber vs. Mets: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• The Mets are starting a vulnerable left-handed pitcher in David Peterson, and Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber carries a .292/.400/.613 slash line vs. southpaws compared to .231/.348/.584 against right-handed pitchers.
• His 42.3% hard-hit rate against RHP jumps to 44.3% when facing LHP.
• Peterson has given up a 43.3% hard-hit rate, placing him in the 20th percentile. That sets the alarms off, as Schwarber has a monstrous Savant page with a .546 xSLG (96th percentile), 21.1% barrel rate (99th percentile), and 77.1 bat speed (98th percentile).
• If Schwarber makes contact, we could be looking at extra bases. That looks favorable with Peterson’s most-used pitch a sinker (28.9%) while the Phillies slugger bats .400 against sinkers.
• Ballpark Pal is forecasting wings to right field with a +15% home run factor tonight (fifth-highest of Sunday), which should aid the left-handed Schwarber.  

Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Phillies SP Zack Wheeler vs. Mets: 6.5 Strikeouts

• Wheeler has flourished in June by recording a 1.42 ERA while giving up only 3 earned runs over three starts. 
• Since May, he’s finished at least the sixth inning in nine consecutive starts. Plus, Wheeler has tallied 99.0 pitches per start in June.
• The Phillies are not afraid of giving their ace a deep start with high volume, boosting his chances to stack strikeouts.
• That’s led to 7.3 Ks per outing this month, and his 26.3% strikeout rate (77th percentile) and 35.9% chase percentage (92nd percentile) add fuel to the fire.
• Over the last 30 days, the Mets tout the fifth-highest K rate in baseball (24.3%).
• New York has swung at 33.4% of pitches outside the strike zone in the last 30 days (tied for ninth-highest), giving Wheeler a good matchup with his exceptional chase rate.

Add Zack Wheeler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Mets vs. Phillies Picks for Sunday Night Baseball on PrizePicks

Trouble could be ahead for the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. Following an embarrassing result in a rivalry matchup against the Phillies, New York is in a tough position with a starting pitcher disadvantage in the primetime spotlight.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Mets vs. Phillies picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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