Tonight, we get a stacked UFC 323 fight card from Las Vegas that promises high-stakes action from top to bottom. It all culminates in the main event, where the reigning and defending UFC Bantamweight champion “The Machine” Merab Dvalishvili looks to defend his title for a historic fourth time against former champion Petr Yan.
Dvalishvili comes in as a favorite for the UFC 323 main event, with a 1.21x projected payout if he wins on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can make UFC picks and earn money if you're right.
We’ll break down our Dvalishvili vs. Yan prediction and UFC 323 pick below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this high-level showdown between two of the UFC’s best bantamweights.
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Pick, Preview at UFC 323
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Winner Payout on PrizePicks Team Picks: Dvalishvili 1.21x | Yan 4.16x (Payouts are subject to change)
Merab Dvalishvili enters his fourth title defense as the favorite to retain his 135-pound title, and for good reason — his wrestling dominance and relentless pace have proven to be the kryptonite for Yan's striking-first approach.
In their first encounter, Dvalishvili's chain wrestling and cardio were simply too much to overcome, leaving Yan searching for answers throughout the five-round affair.
The Georgian wrestler's ability to execute takedowns at will, control the clinch, and dictate the pace creates a suffocating pressure that wears down opponents mentally and physically. With the bantamweight title now on the line, expect Dvalishvili to lean even heavier on his wrestling identity and grind out a dominant decision victory.
However, Petr Yan shouldn't be counted out — his striking precision and counter-wrestling improvements could provide enough offense to steal rounds and keep this fight competitive.
If Yan can stuff takedowns early and land clean combinations in the striking exchanges, he'll have a legitimate path to reclaiming his belt.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan Start Time, Stats, How Each Wins
Merab can win this fight by doing exactly what he did in the first encounter — overwhelming Yan with wrestling volume and relentless pressure from start to finish. His chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns from distance make it nearly impossible for Yan to establish rhythm on the feet, forcing the former champion into a reactive posture.
The Georgian's cardio is elite-level, allowing him to maintain a suffocating pace that compounds throughout the five rounds. By constantly threatening takedowns and controlling the clinch, Dvalishvili can frustrate Yan and steal rounds through positional dominance alone.
Yan's path to victory hinges on his striking precision and willingness to engage in the clinch battle, where his technique can shine. If he can land clean counter combinations and utilize his footwork to create distance, he keeps the fight on his terms early.
The former champion must stuff early takedown attempts and make Dvalishvili pay for his forward pressure with sharp combinations. Should Yan establish that he can defend the wrestling while landing offense, he can build momentum and secure rounds through striking output and cage control in the latter stages of the fight.
UFC 323 Dvalishvili vs. Yan Start Time, How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: Dvalishvili vs. Yan Start Time – 12 a.m. ET (estimate)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV: ESPN+ PPV
Merab Dvalishvili Stats for UFC 323
Overall Record: 21-4
UFC Record: 14-2
Last 5 Fights: 5-0
Height: 5’6"
Reach: 68”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.3
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 6.4
Last Fight: Win vs. Cory Sandhagen by Decision
Finishes: 5 (3 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Petr Yan Stats for UFC 323
Overall Record: 19-5
UFC Record: 11-4
Last 5 Fights: 3-2
Height: 5’7"
Reach: 67”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.1
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 1.5
Last Fight: Win vs. Marcus McGhee by Decision
Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan Prediction, Pick for UFC 323
Here is our expert Dvalishvili vs. Yan prediction and PrizePicks UFC pick for UFC 323. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Dvalishvili vs. Yan Pick: Merab Dvalishvili – 109.5 Significant Strikes
- In their first 25-minute encounter, Dvalishvili landed a massive 147 significant strikes, clearing this line by a 34% margin.
- The "Machine" has surpassed 110 significant strikes in two out of his last three.
- Against Yan specifically, Dvalishvili attempted a staggering 338 significant strikes — an average of 13.5 attempts per minute.
- In his most recent 5-round title defense just two months ago, Merab landed 114 significant strikes against Cory Sandhagen.
- Dvalishvili’s cardio-weaponized pace sees him land 4.46 significant strikes per minute on average.
- That rate projects to112 landed strikes if the fight goes the distance.
Make Dvalishvili vs. Yan Picks on PrizePicks
The UFC 323 main even between Dvalishvili vs. Yan will be broadcast live on ESPN+ PPV from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV, this Saturday, December 6.
This main event bantamweight title fight pits the reigning and defending bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili, who will put his title on the line for a record fourth time this year, against a familiar Petr Yan in a bantamweight rematch for the ages.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 323 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the welterweight main event. Pick your fighters, and earn money if you're right.
Just go to the PrizePicks MMA board, pick your fighters, and cash in if your picks are on point.
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