The 2026-27 NBA season is in full swing and features nine games on the schedule for Monday. The Miami Heat will host the Dallas Mavericks on October 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV. According to PrizePicks, the Heat are 8.5-point favorites on the spread.
Miami has struggled in the early going with a 0-3 record, including a 115-110 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday. Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped two of its first three games, with a 122-106 loss against the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday.
Below, we'll break down the matchup for our Mavericks vs. Heat prediction and NBA picks, including on the winner, spread, over/under, and key player projections on PrizePicks..
Make your Mavericks vs. Heat picks on PrizePicks now!
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Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Monday, October 26
The Heat enter Monday’s matchup as 8.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.28x payout if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Mavericks vs. Heat matchup. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Mavericks vs. Heat prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.
Stats used in this article are from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, or databallr unless stated otherwise.
The Heat made a huge splash in the offseason by landing F Giannis Antetokounmpo in a trade with the Milwaukee Bucks. Miami had to part with G Tyler Herro, C Kel’el Ware, F Jaime Jaquez Jr., and G Kasparas Jakučionis to complete the trade.
Antetokounmpo and C Bam Adebayo form one of the NBA's most dominant frontcourts. However, the Heat have gotten off to a rough start despite upgrading their roster.
Miami's dropped its three games by an average margin of 15.7 points. However, the Heat produced a balanced scoring effort vs. Charlotte, with six players scoring 13+ points despite the loss. PG Davion Mitchell led the way with 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting and a game-high 10 assists.
The Heat will enter Monday’s contest fully healthy, with wing Pelle Larsson listed as available despite a finger sprain.
The Mavericks have missed the NBA Playoffs in each of their last two seasons. Dallas topped the Indiana Pacers 121-105 on Friday for its lone win in the early stages of the new season.
Dallas was without veteran PG Kyrie Irving for the entire 2025-26 season, but Irving is back in the fold as 2026-27 begins.
Fresh off winning the Rookie of the Year Award, F Cooper Flagg is the focal point of the Mavericks’ offense after averaging 21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 4.5 APG in 2025-26. However, Flagg is dealing with a left shoulder sprain after he took a flagrant foul from Indiana Pacers wing Aaron Nesmith on Friday.
Flagg missed Saturday’s home opener against the San Antonio Spurs and will be reevaluated this week. The Mavericks star is currently listed as questionable for Monday.
The Mavericks have a lengthy injury list, beginning with Flagg. Dallas will also be without C Dereck Lively II (foot) and F Naji Marshall (illness).
Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction on Over/Under – 10/26/26
Here are the key stats behind our Mavericks vs. Heat prediction on Monday, October 26, including a pick for the over/under on PrizePicks.
- The under has a combined 4-2 record in the Mavericks and Heat’s six games this season. Additionally, the under is also 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams.
- The Mavericks have averaged 112.3 PPG (18th) in their three games, while the Heat have averaged 109.0 (24th).
- Dallas dominates the glass, allowing opponents to grab just 42.3 RPG (ninth).
- Just 33.0% of the Heat’s points have come from the 3-point line in 2026-27, ranking 17th. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have scored 32.0% of their points from beyond the arc (18th).
- Miami has taken great care of the basketball early in 2026-27, averaging only 14.3 turnovers per game (ninth).
- The under came home in 56.6% of the Heat’s games last season, which was tied for the fifth-highest clip in the NBA.
Lock in your Mavericks vs. Heat prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.
Mavericks vs. Heat Picks, Player Stats on PrizePicks: 10/26/26
Our top Mavericks vs. Heat player picks for Monday, October 26 on PrizePicks include PF P.J. Washington and PF Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Mavericks PF P.J. Washington vs. Heat: 21.5 Pts + Rebs
- Washington has averaged 14.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG in three games to begin this season.
- The Mavericks PF has attempted 20.1 true shots per 100 possessions, ranking in the 73rd percentile.
- Washington shoots 35.4% from beyond the arc for his career and could get more perimeter looks if Flagg misses Monday’s game.
- The Heat allow opponents to shoot 42.0% from deep, ranking dead last in the NBA thus far.
Add P.J. Washington + Mavericks to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Heat PF Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Mavericks: 30.5 Points
- Antetokounmpo's averaged 28.3 PPG in three games but has scored 35+ points in two of those contests.
- The two-time MVP is getting up 36.2 true shot attempts per 100 possessions, ranking in the 100th percentile.
- Antetokounmpo is still a model of efficiency, converting on 57.1% of his field goal tries.
- The Mavericks have recorded the 21st-ranked defensive rating (117.9) while allowing opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field (25th).
Add Giannis Antetokounmpo + Heat to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Mavericks vs. Heat Picks on PrizePicks
The Mavericks and Heat haven’t hit their stride offensively in the opening week of the 2026-27 season. With Flagg’s status up in the air, the Mavericks may lack offensive firepower on the floor even more on Monday night.
Don't wait until tip-off — make your Mavericks vs. Heat picks on PrizePicks now!
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