Ahead of NFL Week 5, news broke that Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. would be inactive, with Arizona planning to trade the #4 overall pick from the 2024 NFL Draft. On Sunday, October 11, Harrison was officially dealt to the Houston Texans.
Harrison is reunited with his former Ohio State teammate, QB C.J. Stroud — who has quietly put together a strong start to the 2026 season. The Texans finally grabbed their first win of the season over the Titans (26-3) in Week 5. Will the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade make a notable impact?
The acquisition of Harrison could shift the Texans’ season, and roles on Houston’s offense for fantasy football may also change. Below, we’ll break down what the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade means for multiple avenues, including NFL predictions for PrizePicks.
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How Marvin Harrison Jr. Trade Shifts Texans’ 2026 Season
Before the 2026 NFL season, I labeled the Texans as one of two longshot Super Bowl teams. That fell flat on its face with Houston beginning the season 0-4.
Last year, the Texans’ offense faltered with only 5.1 yards per play (25th). That’s increased to 5.4 (15th) early in the 2026 season, including a 49.3% dropback success rate (10th) and a 30.9% rush success rate (31st), per RBSDM.
The offense still has its flaws, but last season’s dominant defense that gave up only 17.3 PPG (second) has surrendered 22.4 PPG (14th) thus far. The secondary is allowing a concerning 7.2 yards per passing attempt (18th).
However, this defense is still giving up only 5.0 yards per play (eighth) and a 39.9% success rate (fourth). As we saw in Week 5’s performance holding the Titans to 187 yards and 3.2 yards per play, this unit is likely headed for positive regression.
That’s an even stronger argument when considering one of football’s best defensive players, EDGE Will Anderson Jr. PrizePicks gives Anderson the shortest payout to win Defensive Player of the Year (2.08x), supported by an unreal stat line of 10 sacks (first), 30 pressures (third), and 21 run stops (first), per Pro Football Focus.
Paired with the defense’s strong personnel, the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade is doubling down on a strong start from QB C.J. Stroud and the passing game.
Stroud has tallied 1,402 passing yards (280.4 per game), 6 passing TDs, and 0 INTs. Further, he sports a 72.5% on-target rate (13th) alongside 9.4 air yards per passing attempt (fifth), via Pro Football Reference.
Pro Football Focus gives the QB 2 turnover-worthy plays (both from Week 1) on 206 dropbacks — good for a 0.9% turnover-worthy play rate that’s the fourth-lowest total among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks. Stroud touts a strong 2.5 completion rate over expectation (11th) and a 49.8% success rate (12th).
Marvin Harrison Jr. is still a former top-five draft pick, adding an exceptional talent to this receiving game. In short, the Texans are likely counting on their defense to improve and may intend to lean on Stroud’s arm for the remainder of the season.
Following a 1-4 start to 2026, here are a few projections for Houston’s season, featuring the win totals, team futures, and divisions boards on the PrizePicks app.
Payout multipliers listed above (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if your NFL predictions are correct; for example, 2x on a $100 entry pays $200 if correct on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states. “Yes” payouts represent a specific outcome occurring, whereas "No" payouts indicate the opposite.
While the trade may show the Texans’ confidence in the passing game, will Harrison make that much of an impact? He’s recorded only 13 targets for 5 receptions and 85 receiving yards over four games, and that’s alarming considering his 73.4% snap rate.
Let’s look at the full picture for his slow start in Arizona, ultimately leading to the Cardinals departing from the #4 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Slow Start with the Cardinals
Over four games, Harrison has tallied 33, 0, 40, and 12 receiving yards. He’s recorded multiple catches in only one game (3 receptions in Week 3), and he’s posted just 3.3 targets per game.
There’s no way to sugarcoat this; Harrison has been extremely underwhelming to start 2026, including 0.58 yards per route run and a putrid -46.6% DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), per FTN Fantasy.
He had a strong 2024 rookie campaign with 885 receiving yards and 8 receiving TDs. Plus, Harrison’s efficiency was actually solid last season, including 1.54 yards per route run, a 20.8% DVOA, 0.406 expected points added per target, and a 43.2% separation rate. His separation rate has careened to 23.1% this season.
Harrison’s 2025 separation rate (43.2%) was 36th among qualifying receivers (tied with Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase for context), and his 0.406 EPA was 16th among qualifying targets last season.
In short, his career is not a lost cause. One could argue he simply did not fit Cardinals’ first-year head coach Mike LaFleur’s plans, and Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett’s play wasn’t helping Harrison either.
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Brissett’s 62.6% on-target rate (21st) is comfortably below the 67.5% league average this season. Brissett’s low 7.1 air yards per passing attempt baked in suggests that his on-target rate is even worse.
According to PlayerProfiler, Harrison has an absurdly low 46.2% catchable target rate (101st) so far. As mentioned, Stroud has a 72.5% on-target rate and healthy 9.4 air yards per attempt.
The Texans invested a second-round draft pick in Harrison, meaning they surely intend on getting the wideout involved. Further, Stroud’s play is a much more favorable environment for Harrison, and Texans WR Nico Collins should receive the bulk of a defense’s attention as a two-time Pro Bowler.
But could this change truly reignite Harrison’s career and impact fantasy football?
Texans, Marvin Harrison Jr. Fantasy Football Outlook
The Texans have experienced little production at wide receiver outside of Nico Collins’ 249 receiving yards in three games. Texans WR Tank Dell hasn’t played since a devastating knee injury in 2024, and WR Jayden Higgins tore his ACL before the 2026 season.
SumerSports provided a strong breakdown for Harrison’s career production for EPA per target and yards per route run compared to Houston’s receivers in 2026 (excluding Collins).
As seen above, Harrison’s production on the perimeter would be a welcomed sight for the Texans. In the immediate, Harrison could benefit from defenses focusing on Collins over the middle of the field, and if Harrison begins to produce, Collins could then see the middle of the field open up more as the season progresses.
In summary, there is an angle for Harrison to become fantasy football relevant. He joins an offense with a high 63.09% pass-play rate (ninth) with better QB play and more downfield targets. Houston could also feature more scoring opportunities with 0.003 EPA per play (14th), surpassing Arizona’s -0.013 (17th).
According to FantasyPros, Harrison had a WR32 average draft position (ADP) for PPR leagues. With that said, he has a ton of ground to make up with only 19.8 fantasy points (WR91) on the season. However, his 4.9 fantasy points per game (WR95) may rise.
It’s highly unlikely that Harrison will sniff becoming a WR1 on this offense. Nico Collins comes off three straight seasons above 1,000 receiving yards, and his current 2.54 yards per route run is 11th among WRs with at least 20 targets.
However, Harrison could truly contend with Texans TE Dalton Schultz (6.2 targets per game) to become this unit’s second target. Keep an eye on WR Tank Dell, too, as he returned to practice last week.
Considering this offense’s potential trajectory, there’s reason to buy the Texans right now — especially if RB Woody Marks can aid this rushing attack that averages only 3.4 yards per carry (30th). RB David Montgomery suffered a groin injury in Week 5, opening up touches on the ground.
Harrison’s fantasy football stock is certainly in a better place. Will he show that in his first game in a Texans uniform vs. the Jaguars on Sunday? Harrison is projected for 24.5 receiving yards, 3.5 receiving targets, and a 5.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks.
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Make Texans Predictions on PrizePicks
Following a 1-4 start, the Texans are hoping to turn their season around, and that could now align with Marvin Harrison Jr. seeking to have a career resurgence after Houston acquired the wideout from the Cardinals.
Will Harrison shine in Houston? You can make your picks for the Texans vs. Jaguars in NFL Week 6 on PrizePicks!
You can also make predictions on the Texans’ season on PrizePicks! That includes win totals, to qualify for the playoffs, Super Bowl payouts, and more, all on PrizePicks Team Picks — now available in 36 states! With PrizePicks, just pick players and predict More or Less on their stats — including the Texans vs. Jaguars for NFL Week 6!
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