Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, June 14

Sunday, June 14’s MLB slate begins with the Miami Marlins (35-36) vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates (36-35) at 12:15 p.m. ET on Peacock. Despite recent struggles, PrizePicks Team Picks tabs the Pirates as the favorite for today, with a 1.58x payout if they win.

The Marlins took Game 1 on Friday in an 8-3 final. Pittsburgh produced another low run total on Saturday but held Miami in check in a 3-2 win. Who will secure a series win in Sunday afternoon’s rubber match?

Below, we'll break down our Marlins vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the winner payouts, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Marlins vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now for Sunday's rubber match!

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Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Sunday, June 14

In the last 10 games, the Pirates are 3-7 while posting 4.6 runs per game in the split. Pittsburgh has mainly struggled with allowing run production, with opponents racking up 6.5 runs per contest in the split. Further, the Pirates have given up at least 8 runs in four of the past five games.

However, Pittsburgh may finally get some relief on Sunday, as SP Paul Skenes (6-5, 2.98 xFIP in 76.0 IP) takes the mound. After taking home the NL Cy Young last season, Skenes holds a 2.84 ERA and 2.49 xERA over 14 starts, per FanGraphs.

Marlins SP Max Meyer (6-0, 3.72 xFIP in 79.0 IP) is no slouch either, carrying a 2.85 ERA and 3.86 xERA in 14 starts. Meyer carries a 2.30 ERA over his last five starts while recording xERAs under 2.60 in three of the five outings. 

Unlike the Pirates, Miami is on a roll with an 8-2 record over the last 10 games. It’s tallied 4.9 runs per game while yielding 2.6 runs per contest during the span.

Marlins vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, June 14

The Pirates are a home favorite vs. the Marlins for Sunday’s MLB game, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Marlins vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (2.32x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (2.12x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Marlins 2.27x | Pirates 1.58x

Make your Marlins vs. Pirates prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction on Winner – 6/14/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Marlins vs. Pirates prediction on the winner for Sunday, June 14.

Lock in your Marlins vs. Pirates prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

• The Pirates should have the starting pitcher advantage, as Skenes boasts a 2.93 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) compared to Meyer’s 3.69 mark.
• Skenes is currently on pace for a career-low 44.8% ground ball rate (58th percentile), per Baseball Savant. However, Miami has the fifth-highest ground ball rate in baseball (43.8%).
• The Marlins’ strikeout rate is slightly elevated to 22.0% over the last 30 days (tied for 12th-highest), compared to 21.8% on the season. Skenes boasts an exceptional 29.4% K rate (91st percentile).
• If Pittsburgh’s ace is getting easy outs in bulk thanks to Ks and ground balls, that helps cover up the Pirates’ bullpen that carries a 4.19 xERA (tied for 18th).
• In contrast, the Marlins have one of the league’s best reliever crews with a 3.54 xERA (sixth). Plus, they give up a .198 batting average (the lowest), which could limit Pittsburgh’s .253 batting average (sixth).
• When the Pirates get batters on base, they leave 3.96 runners in scoring position per game (28th).
• Strong starts from Skenes have not been enough to cover up Pittsburgh’s flaws, as it’s lost five straight contests with its superstar on the mound.
• Meanwhile, the Marlins are 7-1 over Meyer’s previous eight appearances.

Marlins vs. Pirates Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks Today

Here are the top Marlins vs. Pirates picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, June 14. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Max Meyer and Otto Lopez.

Marlins SP Max Meyer vs. Pirates: 5.5 Strikeouts

• While Max Meyer has some concerning blue on his Baseball Savant page, that’s not the case in the strikeout category. He carries a 26.5% strikeout rate (79th percentile), a 30.0% whiff rate (83rd percentile), and a 32.3% chase percentage (71st percentile).
• The Pirates strike out often with a 23.7% K rate (fifth-highest), which has jumped to 25.0% over the last 30 days (second-highest).
• Staying in that 30-day split, Pittsburgh holds an 11.5% swinging-strike rate (tied for sixth-highest), circling Meyer’s strong whiff rate.
• The Pirates piled up 9.8 Ks per game over the last five contests, rising from 9.27 per matchup on the season (28th).
• Meyer finished the sixth inning in four of his last five starts, which provides more opportunities for stacking strikeouts. 
• He’s reached at least 6 Ks in six of his last eight starts.

Add Max Meyer to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Marlins SS Otto Lopez vs. Pirates: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Marlins SS Otto Lopez is enjoying a breakout season with a league-best .345 batting average, which smashes his previous career high of .270 in 2024.
• That’s meant a ton of bases for Lopez; he’s currently riding a seven-game hitting streak with multiple hits in six of those appearances.
• Miami’s emerging shortstop boasts a mind-boggling .417 batting average to begin June. His .299 xBA (96th percentile) and 31.6% squared-up rate (87th percentile) are certainly helping the cause.
• Skenes frustrates most batters in MLB, but Lopez has 2 hits over 4 career at-bats against the former Cy Young winner.
• According to Baseball Savant, Skenes’ four-seam fastball has a 37.1% usage rate, and Lopez hits .381 against the pitch this season.
• Lopez has logged a 14.6 hitter fantasy score per game over the last five contests. 

Add Otto Lopez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Marlins vs. Pirates Picks on PrizePicks

One of baseball’s best starters, Skenes, takes the mound today. However, he’s not been able to make up for the Pirates’ flaws of late. Will the Marlins stay hot and secure the series win on Sunday?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Marlins vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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