First pitch for the Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres game is set for 8:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 16, with the Mariners entering as small favorites and returning a 1.78x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
The Padres are rolling, having won seven straight games, including yesterday’s incredible 5-run comeback in the ninth inning. This is the third and final game of a three-game series between these teams, with the Padres winning the first two, 4-1 and 7-6.
Below, we'll break down our Mariners vs. Padres prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Mariners vs. Padres on PrizePicks now.
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Mariners vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, April 16
The Mariners desperately need a win after seeing a comfortable 6-2 lead entering the ninth inning last night evaporate despite having one of the best closers on the mound in RP Andres Munoz.
That loss marked back-to-back defeats for Seattle, who at 8-11 is currently tied for last place in the AL West. The good news is that there are still 143 games remaining for last year’s AL West champions to right the ship.
The Padres, meanwhile, are 12-6 and have won nine of their last 10 games. They currently sit in second in the NL West, two games behind their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. As long as they can stay within arm's reach of them, they could be ready to pounce should the reigning champs slip up.
This is a team whose success is not fluky, as San Diego has one of the more talented batting orders in baseball, coupled with arguably the league’s best bullpen that's headlined by stud RP Mason Miller.
Mariners vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, April 16
The Mariners enter Thursday’s game as small road favorites against the Padres, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Mariners vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (2.32x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.9x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Mariners 1.78x | Padres 1.92x
Play the Mariners vs. Padres spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Mariners vs. Padres Prediction on Spread – 4/16/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mariners vs. Padres prediction on the spread for Thursday, April 16.
Lock in your Mariners vs. Padres prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Padres finished last season 90-75 (54.6%) against the spread (ATS). They've started this season in the same mold, going 13-5 (72.2%) ATS.
- The Mariners were the third-worst covering team in the league last year, going 76-98 (43.7%) ATS. This year has been no different at 7-12 (36.8%) ATS.
- San Diego is seeing the ball better right now. For the season, they have the seventh-highest hard-hit rate in baseball (33.7%).
- Seattle is on the opposite end of the spectrum with a hard-hit rate of just 31.1%, the fifth-worst in the majors.
- As usual, the Padres' bullpen has been nails, owning the third-best bullpen xFIP (3.37).
- The Mariners' bullpen has been decent in its own right with the eighth-best xFIP at 3.85, but one has to wonder whether blowing the aforementioned lead last night could alter things moving forward.
- The Padres have the fresher bullpen, given they didn't use either of their big three arms last night in Miller or RPs Jeremiah Estrada or Jason Adam.
Mariners vs. Padres Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/16/26
Here are the top Mariners vs. Padres picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, April 16. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SPs Luis Castillo and Walker Buehler.
Mariners SP Luis Castillo vs. Padres Projection: 88.5 Pitches
- Castillo has gone over this projection in two of his three outings this season, with the only one he failed to meet being a start in which he went just 3.2 innings but threw 84 pitches.
- In his last start, he went 3.1 innings and gave up 7 earned runs, yet still threw 91 pitches.
- Castillo went over this projection in 23 of his 32 regular-season starts last year (71.9%).
- Last season, the Padres saw the eighth-fewest pitches per plate appearance at just 3.85. This could create a path for Castillo to generate some quick outs and potentially pitch deep into this game.
Add Luis Castillo to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Padres SP Walker Buehler vs. Mariners Projection: 3.5 Strikeouts
- Buehler has only thrown a high of 72 pitches this season but has still had more than this projection in two of his three starts.
- He catches a great matchup for strikeouts against a Mariners team that is striking out 25% of the time, seventh-most in MLB.
- Walker has a SwStr% (swinging strike rate) of 10.4%, which is 2.6% higher than last season's 7.8%.
- Albeit in a different uniform, Buehler was a better pitcher at home last season, sporting a K/9 of 7.13 at home compared to just 5.97 on the road.
Add Walker Buehler to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Mariners vs. Padres Picks on PrizePicks
Seattle and San Diego's series finale serves as a nightcap to an incredible 10-game Thursday MLB slate. Don’t wait until lock — make your Mariners vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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