Mariners vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB Picks for Wednesday, July 29

The first pitch of the matchup between the Seattle Mariners (53-55) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (67-40) is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 29, with the Dodgers returning a 1.58x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The Dodgers and Mariners played a thrilling game to start this series, featuring four lead changes. With the game tied at five, Mariners RF Dominic Canzone hit a 2-run home run — his second of the game. L.A. would add 1 in the ninth and had the tying run on third but could not get it across.

Seattle has the chance to make a huge shift in momentum by winning the series against the defending champions after losing its previous two series.

Below, we'll break down our Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Wednesday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Mariners vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 29

The Mariners are starting Emerson Hancock (3.83 xFIP in 105.1 IP, 19 starts) on Wednesday. The former first-round pick is beginning to live up to expectations after struggling his first three seasons. He came into 2026 with a career -0.6 WAR and 4.81 ERA, but this year, he has a 1.7 WAR and 3.16 ERA.

This breakout may be because he’s trusting his four-seamer and is throwing it 38.6% of the time, his most ever. He’s also increased the velocity each year. In 2023, it averaged 92.5 mph. This year, it's up to 95.4.

Fans may be a little worried about the team being under .500 and 2.5 games out of first in the division, but it isn’t too far off from the 57-51 record it had on this date last year, when Seattle was four games out and still won the American League West. The Mariners went on to finish the season with the third-best record in the AL (33-21).

Seattle does have some of the best pitching in the league, ranking seventh in xERA (3.88) and sixth in xFIP (3.87). Unfortunately, the offense isn’t pulling its weight, ranking 23rd in WAR (10.5) and 27th in wOBA (.306). 

Their top hitter from last year has had a substantial regression. In 2025, C Cal Raleigh finished second in AL MVP voting thanks to his league-leading 61 home runs and 125 RBI. This year, he has just a .166 BA, 11 home runs, and 36 RBI.

Luckily for Seattle, the American League is a tight race. In addition to being in contention in the division, it's only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.

The Dodgers will counter with Eric Lauer (5.48 xFIP in 82.0 IP, 16 appearances, 13 starts). Sometimes all you need is a fresh start to turn your career around, and Lauer might be getting just that.

The first six years of his career were not great, as he had just a 3.9 WAR and 4.31 ERA with the Padres and Brewers. He spent 2024 playing in Korea, then came back in 2025 and signed with the Blue Jays. He had his best season in 2025 with a 3.18 ERA and a 23.9% strikeout rate.

This year started horribly in Toronto with a 6.69 ERA; the Blue Jays ended up designating him for assignment and trading him to Los Angeles. He looks like a new pitcher with the Dodgers and hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his 8 outings. L.A. has won all the games he's appeared in.

Seeing players like Lauer contribute, along with the Dodgers’ high-priced stars, are reasons they could win their third straight World Series. The Dodgers are the only team in MLB to rank in the top four in runs scored per game (5.15) and earned runs allowed per game (3.15), which helps them lead the league with a +155 run differential.

With this level of dominance, they’ve built an 11.5-game lead in the NL West, the biggest division lead in the league. 

Having the top record still isn’t good enough for the Dodgers. We're just days away from the trade deadline, and rumors are the Dodgers are looking to make a splash, which could include trading for two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.

Mariners vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 29

The Dodgers enter Wednesday’s game as home favorites against the Mariners, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Mariners vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.

Play the Mariners vs. Dodgers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Mariners vs. Dodgers Prediction on Winner – 7/29/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction on the winner for Wednesday, July 29.

Lock in your Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks now.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Dodgers have an MLB-leading 48-28 record against right-handed starters ahead of their game against the right-handed Hancock.
• Hancock is allowing a 9.5% barrel rate, which ranks in just the 21st percentile. The Dodgers rank third in the league with a 9.3% barrel rate.
• Lauer has an excellent 32.8% induced chase rate, ranking in the 73rd percentile. This is where the Mariners struggle; their 32.0% chase rate ranks 23rd.
• The Mariners struggle against left-handed pitchers, with their .288 wOBA and .288 BABIP ranking 29th.
• Lauer is allowing a 35.7% hard-hit rate (68th percentile). The Mariners’ lineup has struggled to produce power lately, as their 33.6% hard-hit rate since July 14 ranks 27th.

Mariners vs. Dodgers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/29/26

Here are the top Mariners vs. Dodgers picks to target on Wednesday, July 29. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Kyle Tucker and Josh Naylor.

Dodgers RF Kyle Tucker vs. Mariners: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Is Tucker turning his season around? He’s coming off a stellar series against the Mets where he went 3-for-9 with 2 home runs, 3 RBI, and 2 walks.
• It might help to face a pitcher he’s had some success against; he’s a career 1-for-3 with a home run vs. Hancock.
• It’s difficult to get Tucker to go after pitches out of the zone, as his 24.7% chase rate ranks in the 81st percentile. Hancock struggles, inducing a 26.8% chase rate that ranks in the 15th percentile.
• Hancock’s two most-thrown pitches are the four-seamer (38.6%) and the sinker (23.8%). Tucker handles both very well, owning a .540 xSLG and .400 xwOBA against the four-seamer and a .280 xBA and 51.4% hard-hit rate against the sinker.

Add Kyle Tucker to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mariners 1B Josh Naylor vs. Dodgers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Naylor is 2-for-2 against Lauer lifetime.
• It's difficult to get Naylor to swing and miss; his 18.4% whiff rate is in the 83rd percentile. That could benefit him against Lauer, who’s inducing an 18.6% whiff rate that's only in the fifth percentile.
• Naylor has been better against left-handed pitching, owning a .318 wOBA compared to a .295 wOBA against righties and a .341 versus .258 BABIP split.
• Lauer throwing his four-seamer 44% of the time may help Naylor. The Seattle first baseman has a .477 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, and a 6.7% whiff rate against the four-seamer. Those are his best marks against any other type of pitch he’s seen in 2026.

Add Josh Naylor to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Mariners vs. Dodgers Picks on PrizePicks

The Mariners won the first game of the series in an exciting back-and-forth matchup. With that said, L.A. has typically responded well to a loss, especially when the series is on the line, winning eight of its last nine sets.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Mariners vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on Wednesday's MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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