The Alabama Crimson Tide have rolled to seven straight wins since getting upset at Florida State to start the season. Next, they host a struggling LSU squad on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.
The Tigers fired head coach Brian Kelly after a 49-25 loss at third-ranked Texas A&M to fall to 5-3. LSU has lost three of four games since starting 4-0, which included an impressive road win at Clemson.
Let’s dive into an LSU vs. Alabama prediction and picks for this SEC showdown, kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Use PrizePicks to make picks on player projections and win cash if you're right.
LSU vs. Alabama Prediction, Preview for Week 11
Alabama and LSU are both coming off bye weeks heading into this matchup.
The Crimson Tide rallied past South Carolina two weeks ago, 29-22, thanks to a pair of TDs in the final two minutes. Three of the last five wins for Alabama have come by seven or fewer points, all of which occurred on the road.
Alabama has won each of its home games by double-digits and have scored 42 points in each of the last two victories over LSU. In the aforementioned 24-point defeat to Texas A&M, the Tigers led 18-14 at halftime before getting outscored 35-7 in the second half.
LSU lost its last two road games to Ole Miss, 24-19, and to Vanderbilt, 31-24. The Tigers are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak for the second straight season.
LSU Tigers Preview vs. Alabama
- One of the keys to Kelly’s downfall was the lack of success offensively. LSU ranks 102nd in offensive success, per Game on Paper, including 130th in the run game.
- LSU has been better on the defensive side, owning the 29th-ranked EPA/pass. The Tigers sat 44th in this category during their 9-4 campaign in 2024.
- The Tigers are averaging 20.0 points per game on the road, compared to 28.8 at home.
- Against FBS foes, however, LSU is posting 22.0 points per game in Baton Rouge.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview vs. LSU
- Alabama owns the seventh-best net EPA/play in college football, including ranking third on the offensive side.
- The only area of struggle for this Crimson Tide squad is running the ball, ranking 121st in the country in success rate via Game on Paper.
- Last season, the Tide averaged 39.1 points per game at home against FBS opponents. This season, that number has increased to 44.5, albeit aided by a 73-point shutout of UL-Monroe in Week 2.
LSU vs. Alabama Picks & PrizePicks Targets
Below are the top PrizePicks CFB picks for Saturday night’s battle between LSU and Alabama.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson Projection: 272.5 Passing Yards
- Ty Simpson has shined in his first season as the starting QB of the Tide. The junior has thrown 20 TD passes and has been intercepted only once.
- He ranks third among SEC QBs with 2,184 passing yards, but has finished below this projection in each of the last three games.
- Simpson has eclipsed 273 passing yards in three of eight games. His top performance in conference play came against Vanderbilt on October 4, when he racked up 340 yards.
- Two QBs have thrown for more than 275 yards against LSU this season. Florida’s D.J. Lagway put up 287 yards in a 20-10 loss in Baton Rouge, while Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss posted 314 yards in a 24-19 win.
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier Projection: 232.5 Passing Yards
- Garrett Nussmeier was the fifth-leading passer in the country last year with 4,052 yards. He has gone backwards in his senior season, throwing for 1,806 yards in eight games.
- In the swan song game for Kelly, his QB finished with a season-low 168 passing yards against undefeated Texas A&M two weeks ago.
- In last season’s matchup with Alabama, Nussmeier compiled 239 passing yards, his second-lowest output of 2024.
- The only QB to throw for at least 233 yards against Alabama’s ferocious defense is Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar, who leads the SEC in passing yards. Aguilar put up 268 yards in a 37-20 loss on October 18.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams Projection: 65.5 Receiving Yards
- Ryan Williams has posted 72 or more receiving yards in each of the last three games. At home, the sophomore is averaging 116.6 yards per game, highlighted by a 165-yard performance against Wisconsin in Week 3.
- In last season’s 42-14 rout of LSU, Williams was limited to 2 catches for 29 yards.
- Williams was on the field for 45 snaps against South Carolina two weeks ago. His highest snap count at home this season was 28 in a 30-14 victory over Vanderbilt on October 4.
- LSU has allowed three opposing WRs to accumulate at least 66 yards. The highest output by an opponent was Mississippi’s Cayden Lee, who had 70 yards in the Rebels’ five-point victory over the Tigers.
Make LSU vs. #4 Alabama Picks on PrizePicks
Alabama looks to beat LSU for a third straight time and extend its winning streak to eight on the year. Can the Tigers pull the upset in their first game after the firing of Kelly?
Ahead of the LSU vs. Alabama kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET, it's time to make CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
It's the simplest way to join the college action.
