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LeBron James Free Agency Update – 12:25 p.m. ET – Tuesday, June 30
Despite the Lakers aiming to retain LeBron James for 2026-27, ESPN's Shams Charania reports that LeBron will play elsewhere this season. He informed the team to move on without him in free agency.
The Golden State Warriors are currently the clear favorite to be LeBron James' next team on PrizePicks Team Picks, with a 1.51x payout multiplier — and a 2.43x payout on no.
After the Warriors, the Cleveland Cavaliers (3.03x payout) and Miami (8.33x payout) are next in line as the favorites to land LeBron in free agency.
Predict LeBron James' next team on PrizePicks Team Picks now!
NBA free agency officially begins on Tuesday, June 30, at 6 p.m. ET, though we’ve already seen plenty of news surrounding pending free agents. LeBron James tops the unrestricted free agent list, and his home for the 2026-27 season remains up in the air.
While staying with the Lakers is certainly in the picture, NBA rumors have been blazing hot for LeBron James’ next team, linking LeBron to the Warriors, who seem determined to build a super team with Anthony Davis in trade rumors.
James returning to the Cavaliers remains among rumors, and a Heat sign-and-trade has been teased — even following the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade.
There’s plenty to discuss in the LeBron James sweepstakes. Let’s round up the NBA free agency news surrounding LeBron and look at payouts for his next team on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real money if you’re right — available in 35 states!
Make your NBA free agency predictions and LeBron James picks on PrizePicks now!
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LeBron James Leaving Lakers: LeBron's Next Team Rumors for Free Agency
Over the last few days, the Warriors have been the hottest rumor surrounding LeBron by a mile. On ESPN’s Get Up this morning, insider Brian Windhorst added fuel to the potential move:
Back in 2022, James was quite vocal about liking the idea of playing with Warriors G Stephen Curry. Plus, Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports confirmed Golden State is attempting to trade for Wizards PF/C Anthony Davis on Monday.
The Warriors clearly have the appeal, especially if they can pull off a Davis deal alongside landing James. We’ll take a deeper dive into the logistics below.
Following Golden State, the Cavaliers continue to be linked to LeBron. Frankly, this is the hometown effect. James played in Cleveland for 11 seasons, winning the city its first NBA Finals in 2016 over the Warriors. Retiring with the Cavs just feels right.
There’s also been smoke of a potential Heat reunion.
A sign-and-trade could be required if the Heat landed LeBron. Most proposals discussed Miami sending F Andrew Wiggins to Los Angeles for some financial freedom, but that now looks dead after Wiggins agreed to a three-year, $64 million extension with the Heat.
PrizePicks Team Picks has projections available for NBA players’ next team, with payouts reflected by which side users are picking as the most likely destination. Let’s look at the payouts for LeBron James’ next team. Who are users tabbing as the favorites?
LeBron James’ Next Team Favorites, Payouts on PrizePicks
Go to the PrizePicks app, navigate to the Teams section and NBA, and then select Next Team and LeBron James’ Next Team. You can pick “Yes” or “No” for LeBron James’ next team, including the Lakers, Warriors, Cavaliers, and Heat at the top.
Here’s a picture of the current favored destinations for LeBron’s next team on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Note: updated after ESPN's Shams Charania reported that LeBron James will be leaving the Lakers in free agency.
- Golden State Warriors: Yes 1.51x | No 2.43x
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Yes 3.22x | No 1.29x
- Miami Heat: Yes 9.09x | No 1.04x
- San Antonio Spurs: Yes 16.66x
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
As expected, the Warriors and Cavaliers are viewed as the most likely next teams for LeBron James. Below, we’ll look at Golden State and Cleveland’s case for landing one of the greatest players of all time.
Lock in your prediction for LeBron James' next team on PrizePicks Team Picks!
Will LeBron James Sign with the Golden State Warriors?
If LeBron ends up with the Warriors or Cavaliers, there are a ton of moving pieces. Golden State certainly has the most complicated path, but the franchise has become impossible to ignore following Windhorst’s comments of a push for James on the first day of free agency.
The first major domino was F Draymond Green declining his $27.7 million player option, becoming a free agent. That provides the Warriors with more financial flexibility.
ESPN’s Shams Charania also alluded to James and Davis being a package deal. Moving F Jimmy Butler’s $56.8 million cap hit for the 2026-27 season would likely be a requirement to take on Davis’ $58.4 million cap hit for the upcoming season.
Panic then hit for Warriors’ fans when Golden State elected to re-sign C Kristaps Porzingis on Monday night, but there’s still a path to bring on LeBron.
Perhaps the most important piece of the puzzle? James would likely need to accept a $15 million mid-level exception, meaning a massive pay cut compared to his $52.6 million salary from last season. However, Windhorst said he’s heard LeBron is prioritizing happiness, not money, for the 2026-27 season.
The smorgasbord of Warriors rumors and reports has fueled a huge shift on Kalshi, as the Warriors recently spiked by +18% to be LeBron’s next team. Golden State sits at 42%, narrowly behind the Lakers (44%).
Will LeBron land in Golden State? Make your prediction on PrizePicks Team Picks.
LeBron James and Cleveland Cavaliers Reunion Ahead?
Only a few days ago, the Cavaliers carried a 33% chance to be James’ next team, behind the Lakers at 57% on Kalshi. Cleveland has tanked and now sits at 12% as of this writing.
But LeBron was in Ohio on Monday, so who knows?
The Cavs are expected to extend G James Harden to a multi-year deal. Keep in mind G Donovan Mitchell is due for $50.1 million in the upcoming season. Plus, F Evan Mobley features a $50.1 million cap hit for 2026-27.
With that said, this is likely another scenario requiring LeBron to take a $15 mid-level exception. Cleveland was swept by the eventual NBA champions, the Knicks, in the Eastern Conference Finals this past season.
The Cavaliers’ core is expected to remain unchanged. Small forward has been the roster’s weakness at times, and James would fill that hole. James, Mitchell, and Harden could feature an exciting scoring on offense, while Mobley and C Jarrett Allen form a strong frontcourt duo.
Unlike the Warriors proposal that would immediately make Golden State look like a retirement home, this scenario wouldn’t put LeBron on a team full of aging players. Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen are all firmly in their primes, and Harden has surpassed 70 regular-season games played for three consecutive years.
Similar to the Warriors rumors, moving to Cleveland would likely increase LeBron’s chances of winning the NBA Finals. The Lakers have plenty of issues around G Luka Doncic and the newly extended G Austin Reaves, including a weak frontcourt.
Either team would provide a more balanced squad and should take some of the workload off the 41-year-old James.
You can predict the Cavaliers as LeBron James' next team on PrizePicks Team Picks!
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Make your NBA Free Agency Predictions on PrizePicks
As Windhorst alluded to, this summer could be about James’ happiness, which likely includes chasing one final title before he hangs it up. While the Heat sign-and-trade pipe dream could be finished, the Warriors and Cavaliers remain real contenders to be LeBron’s next team.
For now, we’ll sit back and watch the chaos unfold, as teams vie to become the franchise where James will likely finish his illustrious career.
You can get in on the free agency action with PrizePicks Team Picks, with projections available for star players’ next teams, like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, and much more. While the Knicks are still partying after their NBA Finals win, the NBA tab is already open with projections for the 2027 NBA Finals winner.
Stay tuned with the Playbook for continued NBA predictions, picks, news, and analysis all year long.
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