The UFC lightweight division is bracing for chaos at UFC 324 on Paramount+ as ‘The Highlight’ Justin Gaethje looks to derail the sport’s biggest hype train in Paddy 'The Baddy' Pimblett in a high‑stakes battle for the interim title.
We'll look at the paths for both fighters to claim the belt in the Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett main event; will the rising Scouser be ready to handle elite‑level pressure, or will he wilt under the bright lights of UFC 324?
Find our Gaethje vs. Pimblett prediction and UFC 324 expert pick for Saturday's main event title fight below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this high-level showdown between two of the UFC’s best lightweights.
You can predict UFC winners on PrizePicks Team Picks and earn money if you're right, including on Gaethje vs. Pimblett, now available in 30 states.
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Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, UFC 324 Main Event Preview
Justin Gaethje arrives at UFC 324 as a veteran interim title challenger, with a resume built on striking prowess against championship‑level competition. ‘The Highlight’ has faced the best 155‑pounders in the sport, showcasing his trademark leg kicks and nonstop forward pressure.
Gaethje’s ability to impose his will with volume creates relentless pressure that tests opponents’ cardio and composure. Look for Gaethje to lean on his striking and forward march to dictate the fight.
Paddy The Baddy Pimblett enters as a surging contender chasing the biggest opportunity of his career at UFC 324. The Liverpool native has impressed with improved striking and dominant grappling, carving through opponents with a confident, aggressive style that has captivated UFC fans.
However, Pimblett faces his toughest test to date against what was undoubtedly his most experienced opponent. If he can weather Gaethje’s pressure early, establish his awkward striking rhythm, and land timely takedowns, he could leave with the biggest win of his career and interim gold around his waist.
UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Payouts
Justin Gaethje enters this interim title fight as the underdog, returning a 2.85x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if he wins.
Paddy Pimblett comes into his first-ever UFC title fight as the favorite with a 1.38x payout if he wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks
Game Winner Payout: Justin Gaethje 2.85x ($100 pays out $285)| Paddy Pimblett 1.38x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction for UFC 324 Main Event
Here are some UFC stats to help you make your Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett in the UFC Lightweight interim title fight at UFC 324 on Paramount+.
- Gaethje vs. Pimblett is set for five rounds, as is standard in UFC title fights.
- Gaethje’s takedown defense (68% career TDD) should help him keep this fight on the feet.
- 'The Highlight’ has five‑round title‑fight experience against elite competition, including Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
- The eight‑year UFC veteran averages 6.59 significant strikes landed per minute, one of the highest outputs in the division, and has scored multiple knockdowns at the elite level.
- Paddy 'The Baddy' is six years younger than Gaethje and appears to be entering his physical prime, while the veteran is in the later stages of his career.
- Pimblett has finished 71% of his UFC wins, including three by submission, and averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
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Gaethje vs. Pimblett Start Time, How to Watch UFC 324
- Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
- Time: Main Card – 9 p.m. ET | Gaethje vs. Pimblett Start Time – 11 p.m. ET (estimate)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- TV: Paramount+
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Tale of the Tape
Here are the key stats to know for Gaethje vs. Pimblett in the UFC 324 main event.
Justin Gaethje Stats for UFC 324
Overall Record: 26-5
UFC Record: 9-5
Last 5 Fights: 3-2
Height: 5’11"
Reach: 70”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.6
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.10
Last Fight: Win vs. Rafael Fiziev by Decision
Finishes: 5 (3 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Paddy Pimblett Stats for UFC 324
Overall Record: 23-3
UFC Record: 7-0
Last 5 Fights: 5-0
Height: 5’10"
Reach: 73”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.2
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.96
Last Fight: Win vs. Michael Chandler by KO/TKO in Round 3
Finishes: 21 (19 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Gaethje vs. Pimblett Pick for UFC 324 Main Event
Here is our expert UFC 324 prediction and pick for Gaethja vs. Paddy The Baddy interim title fight. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Gaethje vs. Pimblett Pick: Paddy Pimblett – 61.5 Significant Strikes
- 'The Highlight' absorbs 7.18 significant strikes per minute, one of the highest rates among active ranked lightweights.
- In his last decision win over Tony Ferguson, 'The Baddy' landed 106 significant strikes over three rounds.
- Over a potential 15 minutes (if the fight goes five rounds), Pimblett needs to average just 4.1 significant strikes per minute to clear 61.5 — he currently lands 5.2 per minute.
- This fight is currently projected for 2.5 rounds on PrizePicks Player Picks.
- Pimblett connects on 53% of his significant strike attempts, while Gaethje’s 51% defense reflects a take‑one‑to‑give‑one approach.
- Even in fights that end in the third round, opponents often clear 60 significant strikes against Gaethje once the bout extends past the 10‑minute mark, given his pace and willingness to trade.
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Make Your Gaethje vs. Pimblett Picks on PrizePicks
The main event interim lightweight title fight pits contenders Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett against one another, looking to wrap a lightweight belt around their waist on Saturday night to cap off an excellent card.
The UFC 324 main event Gaethje vs. Pimblett will be broadcast on Paramount+, live from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, this Saturday, January 24.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 324 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the lightweight main event. Pick your fighters, and win cash if you're right. You can also predict winners in every UFC fight on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued UFC picks, predictions, and news.
