Jets vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks – Sunday, October 18

In Week 6, the New York Jets (2-3) will hit the road to take on the New England Patriots (3-2) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 18. The Patriots come in as 7.5-point home favorites, and they'd return a 1.26x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Patriots looked completely lost following their blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, but they seem to have refound their mojo by earning victories over the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders.

Meanwhile, the Jets broke a three-game losing streak in Week 5 with a 17-12 win over the Cleveland Browns. 

These longtime AFC East rivals now meet for the first time in 2026. Who will emerge victorious on Sunday?   

Below, we’ll break down our Jets vs. Patriots prediction and picks for NFL Week 6, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Jets vs. Patriots prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Jets vs. Patriots Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 18

The Patriots enter Sunday’s game as 7.5-point home favorites against the Jets, returning a 1.26x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $126 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Jets vs. Patriots game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Jets vs. Patriots prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

The Jets have struggled to move the ball, ranking 27th in points per game (18.6) and 26th in yards per game (284.0). 

Outside of shredding a poor Detroit Lions defense in Week 3, QB Geno Smith has mostly put up pedestrian numbers, most recently completing 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards and a TD against Cleveland.

While he’s yet to throw a pick, Smith has the league’s fourth-highest sack rate (9.8%) and has fumbled the ball in four of five games. He and the Jets' offense will once again be without RB Breece Hall, WR Adonai Mitchell, and G Dylan Parham — who have all been out multiple weeks. 

With Hall out, RB Braelon Allen has been New York’s workhorse, and he saw career highs in carries (24) and rushing yards (116) last week. Allen's been close to league average in rushing yards per attempt (4.1), but that’s actually been a step up from Hall’s 3.2. 

While the Jets have been mediocre on offense, they’ve fared much better on the other side of the ball, giving up the sixth-fewest PPG (19.2) and fourth-fewest YPG (293.0). In Week 5, New York held Cleveland to just 198 total yards and sacked QB Deshaun Watson a whopping 8 times.

As for the Patriots, their biggest storyline is the vastly improved play of QB Drake Maye. 

After throwing for 3 TDs against the Bills in Week 4, Maye produced by far his best performance of the year last Sunday against the Raiders, completing 26 of 34 passes for 374 yards and 4 TDs while adding 7 rushes for another 25 yards and a TD. 

The Pats dropped 45 points on Vegas, which is more than they scored in the first three weeks combined. On the season, they’re still below average in PPG (22.0), but they’re already up to eighth in YPG (372.4) and could be a much more formidable force going forward.

Furthermore, WR A.J. Brown will reportedly be activated off injured reserve, potentially adding even more optimism.

New England’s defense has been a strength, ranking fourth in PPG (18.8) and fifth in YPG (296.2). The team has been plagued by injuries but is getting some additional good news this week, as star CB Christian Gonzalez is off the injury report and will be active for the first time since Week 3. 

Jets vs. Patriots Prediction on Spread – 10/18/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Bears vs. Packers pick against the spread for Sunday, October 18.

• When Maye was out of sorts the first three weeks, the Patriots ranked 28th in EPA/play (-0.130), per RBSDM. Since then, they’ve posted the second-best mark over the last two weeks (0.272) and now sit just outside the top 10 for the season (0.045).
• Even with his horrid start, Maye ranks ninth out of 30 qualified QBs in adjusted EPA/play (0.224). Smith is 18th (0.057).
• While both defenses have performed well to this point, New England ranks sixth in defensive DVOA. New York is just 17th, per FTN.
• The Jets have far more sacks (18) than the Patriots (11), although a good chunk of that came against the Browns. Per Sharp Football Analysis, New England actually has the higher pressure rate (39.3%) compared to New York (34.9%). 
• The Jets’ lackluster results on offense are further backed by ranking 20th in EPA/play (-0.025) and 21st in success rate (42.5%).  
• New York has lost two of its three road games by 7 and 11 points. The lone away win came against the 0-5 Tennessee Titans, a team with a -51 point differential.
• The Patriots are 2-0 as a home favorite both outright and against the spread.

Make your Jets vs. Patriots picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Jets vs. Patriots Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/18/26

Here are the top Jets vs. Patriots picks to target on Sunday, October 18. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Garrett Wilson and Rhamondre Stevenson.

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Patriots: 72.5 Rec Yards

• The Patriots’ defense is sixth in dropback EPA/play (-0.011) and ninth in dropback success rate (43.9%).
• According to Pro Football Reference, New England gives up 137.6 receiving YPG to wideouts, the league’s 12th-fewest total.
• Gonzalez's return should immediately bolster this New England secondary. According to PFF, he has covered Wilson 49 times dating back to 2023, and the Jets WR has been held to 5 receptions for 26 yards. It’s possible that Gonzalez will shadow Wilson on Sunday.
• The Jets rank 20th in pass rate over expected, and Smith is just 23rd in pass attempts per game (29.4). He's been held to 215 or fewer passing yards in three of five outings.  

Add Garrett Wilson + Jets to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Jets: 63.5 Rush Yards

• Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain after getting injured in Week 5, and he was initially expected to miss multiple weeks. However, he was a limited participant in practice all week and is officially questionable. Even Henderson admitted he was surprised he was able to practice.
• If Henderson is unable to play, Stevenson could see a workhorse role. With Henderson out in Week 1, Stevenson saw a season-high 18 carries and 84.5% snap share. While he managed just 51 rushing yards, that came against a Seattle Seahawks defense that's third in rush success rate (33.3%) and allows 3.7 YPC.
• The Jets' defense is 26th in rush success rate (43.0%) and gives up 4.2 YPC. It allows 102.2 rushing YPG to opposing backfields, which is the eighth most.
• RB Corey Kiner would be the backup if Henderson is out. Kiner has mostly only been used in garbage time. In Week 1, he played 11.3% of available snaps.

Add Rhamondre Stevenson + Patriots to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Jets vs. Patriots Picks on PrizePicks

Following two straight wins, the Patriots could be turning things around. Can the Jets prevent them from winning their third in a row?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Jets vs. Patriots picks on PrizePicks now for Week 6 and earn real money if you're right.

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