Jets vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Week 3 – Sunday, September 27

It’s still too early in the NFL season to get a clear read on which teams are contenders and which are pretenders, but Sunday should help in those efforts at least a bit. Could one team manage to stand out when the New York Jets and Detroit Lions do battle?

Heading into the 1 p.m. bout between 1-1 teams on FOX, Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite over visiting New York. Barring a tie, one club will reside on either side of the .500 mark by the time the dust settles. With the Lions boasting a potent offense and the Jets potentially being resurgent, this interconference outing could bring the fireworks. 

Below, we'll break down our Jets vs. Lions prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Jets vs. Lions Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27

Year one of the Aaron Glenn era didn’t go as the Jets had necessarily planned. The newcomer head coach led his team to just a 3-14 record, struggling with the QB Justin Fields experiment flaming out and no one really separating from the pack elsewhere. 

Add in an injury to star WR Garrett Wilson, and you got an offense that ranked fourth-worst in both yards and points per drive. No interceptions all year long on defense also held New York back, but Glenn can now run things back with (perhaps) more stability under center and his style of defense. 

The Jets throttled the Tennessee Titans 23-10 to open the year and put a significant scare into the Green Bay Packers before ultimately falling in overtime by a final of 20-17 in Week 2. On offense, QB Geno Smith is playing low-mistake football and allowing playmakers like Wilson and RB Breece Hall to produce. 

Defensively, offseason pickups like edge rusher David Bailey are beginning to pay off, and Joseph Ossai could soon make his season debut. 

For the Lions, 2025 was essentially a cursed campaign under head coach Dan Campbell. Injuries completely ravaged a group that had gone 15-2 and made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs just one year prior, resulting in a 9-8 record and some soul-searching to do. 

Many of the same faces remain on this team sans some depth pieces along the front line on offense and secondary pieces like CB Keith Abney II and S Chuck Clark.

Putting points on the scoreboard hasn’t been the problem — Detroit’s managed 31 each in Weeks 1 and 2. The fabulous five of QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Sam LaPorta and WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams is enough to keep any opposing coordinator up at night.

Getting stops is once again an issue, however. No team has surrendered more first downs than the Lions thus far at 63, and DC Kelvin Sheppard’s unit ranks 30th on third downs and in the red zone. Is facing New York just what the doctor ordered? Only time can tell.

Detroit leads the all-time series between these teams 8-7, although there have been alternating wins and losses dating back to 2010. The Jets and Lions last faced one another in 2022, when Detroit snuck away with a 20-17 outcome away from home.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Jets are without S Minkah Fitzpatrick (groin) and TE Mason Taylor (quad) in this one. The aforementioned Ossai (foot), as well as WR Adonai Mitchell (finger) are questionable. For the Lions, OT Ben Bartch (foot) is sitting this contest out. 

Jets vs. Lions Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27

The Lions enter Sunday’s game as 6.5-point home favorites over the Jets, returning a 1.31x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Jets vs. Lions game on PrizePicks.

Make your Jets vs. Lions pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Jets vs. Lions Prediction on Spread – 9/27/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Jets vs. Lions prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 27’s game. 

• Since Campbell joined the organization in 2021, Detroit is 18-15 against the spread as home favorites. New York is 4-4-1 ATS as road underdogs with Glenn.
• According to Jefe’s Handiwork, the Jets’ defense faces the second-highest pass rate (71.6%) in the sport. That’s music to the Lions’ ears, as they own a top-five passing offense. 
• Although the Lions’ defense is ceding explosive passes at an 18.6% clip, per NFL Pro, Smith and the Jets create them at just an 11.8% rate (the seventh-lowest figure). 
• New York’s rushing offense still needs serious work despite calling run plays at the eighth-highest rate (43.7%) rolling into Week 3. Detroit owns the lowest missed tackle rate against run plays at 8.2%. 
• Simply put, this Lions attack is far more potent than that of the Jets. Detroit’s putting up 0.459 points per play and 0.370 first downs per play versus New York’s benchmarks of 0.296 for each. 

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Jets vs. Lions Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/27/26

Here are the top Jets vs. Lions picks to target on Sunday, September 27. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Geno Smith, QB Jared Goff, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

Jets QB Geno Smith vs. Lions: 225.5 Pass Yards

• Smith has absolutely feasted against the Lions in his last three matchups with them, completing 73.2% of his passes for 1,043 yards and 5 TDs through the air. 
• The 35-year-old’s 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt are his most since 2022 with the Seattle Seahawks, his first Pro Bowl season. 
• Like Goff, Smith has held up well when defenses attempt to put him under duress. Sharp Football Analysis adds that he’s 14-of-19 against the blitz for 170 yards and a TD in 2026.
• Detroit’s defense sits 24th in dropback EPA at 0.243, per RBSDM, and is allowing a 53.3% dropback success rate that’s “good” for 28th. 

Add Geno Smith + Jets to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Lions QB Jared Goff vs. Jets: 258.5 Pass Yards

• Goff enters Week 3 tied for the league lead with 6 passing TDs and no INTs. He also has an average of 266.5 yards per game, remarkably close to 2025’s mark of 268.5. 
• Goff is notorious for performing better in home games, where he averages 11.6 more passing yards per game in his career with a QB rating of 101.2 (92.7 in away games). 
• The veteran signal-caller is faring quite well under pressure, posting 8.8 yards per attempt to go with no turnover-worthy plays.
• Good news is here for Goff, as he’s getting offensive linemen Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller back in the fold for Week 3. 

Add Jared Goff + Lions to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Jets: 89.5 Rush Yards

• The Lions didn’t seem to be kidding about making Gibbs their featured piece with RB David Montgomery gone. The fourth-year halfback has 56 touches through two games (28 per) after averaging 18.8 in 2025. 
• According to Pro Football Focus, Gibbs has 14 missed tackles forced and a 33.7% breakaway run rate through two games. 
• Via 4for4, Gibbs is tied for first place leaguewide with 11 red-zone rushing attempts. His 84.6% split of team carries in those situations is sixth. 
• New York has stuffed the sixth-lowest share of opposing runs (9.4%) and is surrendering the ninth-most yards after contact per carry (3.30). 

Add Jahmyr Gibbs + Lions to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Contrary to what many expected coming into the season, New York has shown plenty of fight and very well could be 2-0 right now if not for the game of small margins. Elsewhere, Detroit’s bounce-back campaign isn’t off to the best of starts but could get right back on track with a home victory this weekend. 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Jets vs. Lions picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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