The New Year's Eve college bowl slate is highlighted by five games, starting with the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa at 12 p.m. ET.
The 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl — formerly the Outback Bowl — features the Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) in the second SEC vs. Big Ten battle of the 2025 bowl season.
Let’s look at the Iowa vs. Vanderbilt prediction and picks for Wednesday’s early start ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, including a pick on the spread for PrizePicks Team Picks — pick a side to win, cover the spread, or go over/under in 30 states!
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for ReliaQuest Bowl
Both of these teams put together solid marks against the spread in 2025. The Hawkeyes compiled an 8-3-1 ledger, while the Commodores covered in nine of 12 games.
Led by Heisman finalist QB Diego Pavia, the Commodores put together the best season in program history on the heels of a 7-6 record in 2024. Vandy’s two losses came at Alabama (30-14) and Texas (34-31), but it finished with three straight wins, scoring 45 points in each.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are playing in this bowl for the seventh time in head coach Kirk Ferentz’s 27-year tenure (that’s a lot of Bloomin’ Onions). However, this is the first time Iowa has played in Tampa since 2018, following the 2023 rebranding of the bowl.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Over/Under and Spread
Vanderbilt enters this matchup as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.44x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if it wins outright.
The Hawkeyes are slight underdogs with a 2.63x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Vanderbilt -3.5 (1.72x payout)
- Over/Under: 44.5 (1.75x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Iowa 2.63x | Vanderbilt 1.44x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Prediction on Spread for ReliaQuest Bowl
Here are some stats to know for Iowa vs. Vanderbilt in the ReliaQuest Bowl today, including insights on our Iowa vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
- Iowa fought hard in the underdog role in 2025, putting together a 3-0-1 ATS record.
- Although the Hawkeyes lost all four times as dogs, each defeat came by five or fewer points.
- Two of those setbacks were against teams that reached the College Football Playoff. Iowa dropped a 20-15 decision as 9-point home underdogs to Indiana in September.
- Six weeks later, the Hawkeyes lost in the final seconds to Oregon, 18-16 as 3.5-point dogs.
- We know it means more in the SEC, but Vanderbilt won and covered in all four opportunities as a conference favorite.
- Among the teams the Commodores knocked off in SEC play, LSU and Missouri reached bowls, while Vandy routed rival Tennessee in the regular season finale, 45-24.
- Iowa’s air attack doesn’t scare anybody, ranking 128th in EPA/Pass according to GameOnPaper.
- However, Hawkeyes face a Vandy defense that's vulnerable vs.the pass, sitting 122nd in EPA/Pass, so we’ll see which unit strays from those expectations.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Picks for New Year's Eve Game
Here are three top Iowa vs. Vanderbilt picks to target on Wednesday in the ReliaQuedt Bowl. The top college football PrizePicks player projections are headlined by three players: Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, Iowa QB Mark Gronowski, and Commodores RB Kamari Moulton.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia vs. Iowa Projection: 223.5 Passing Yards
- The Heisman Trophy finalist set a career-high with 3,192 passing yards and sits 92 yards away from 10,000 career passing yards.
- The former New Mexico State signal-caller racked up at least 365 yards in three consecutive November games against Texas, Auburn, and Kentucky.
- He closed his senior season by torching Tennessee for 268 yards, ending a six-game slide to the Volunteers.
- Iowa ranks sixth in the nation in defense EPA/Pass and allowed at least 225 passing yards in four of nine conference games.
- One of the QBs to eclipse this projection against the Hawkeyes was Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, leading Indiana with 233 yards in a 20-15 triumph.
Iowa QB Mark Gronowski vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 142.5 Passing Yards
- In his first year in Iowa City, the former South Dakota State QB managed 1,529 passing yards, his fewest yards in five seasons.
- Gronowski failed to throw for 200 yards in 12 starts. His season-high came at Rutgers in mid-September, posting 186 yards in a 38-28 triumph.
- In five of 12 games he reached 143 passing yards, including against top-ranked Indiana with a 144-yard effort on September 27.
- One of the reasons the 24-year-old hasn't been asked to throw much is his running ability; Gronowski has rushed for 15 TDs and put up at least 50 rushing yards in four games.
- Vanderbilt has yielded an average of 315 passing yards in the last four games with the lowest output being 280 yards in a blowout of Kentucky.
Iowa RB Kamari Moulton vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 85.5 Rushing Yards
- The Ft. Lauderdale native posted a career-high with 783 yards, but never reached 100 yards in a game.
- In spite of not getting triple-digits rushing in a game during his sophomore campaign, he racked up at least 90 yards four times.
- Moulton closed the regular season with 93 yards and a pair of TDs in a 40-16 blowout of Nebraska.
- Vandy allowed four opposing RBs in SEC play to rush for at least 90 yards. The Commodores ranked 25th in defensive EPA/Rush, a significant improvement from 76th last season.
Make New Year's Eve Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
Vanderbilt looks to close a dream season with 11 victories behind QB Diego Pavia, but face an Iowa team that has hung tough as an underdog.
There’s never been a better time to add to the excitement of every moment of the 2025 college football bowl season than with PrizePicks.
There are hundreds of player stat projections on the CFB board for every bowl game; just pick at least two player stat projections to build your Lineup on PrizePicks. Or, make your picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 30 states!
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