#6 Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, October 24

Week 8 of the 2026 college football season features a major Big Ten showdown as the #6 Indiana Hoosiers travel to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX, with Indiana entering as a 7.5-point favorite on PrizePicks.

Indiana rolls into Saturday's matchup at 6-1 after suffering its first loss of the season, a 19-15 defeat against #4 Ohio State. Michigan, meanwhile, is 4-2 and coming off a 21-18 victory over Penn State, snapping a two-game losing streak in conference play.

Can QB Josh Hoover and the Hoosiers bounce back from their first defeat and secure a statement road victory, or will Michigan's defense and home-field advantage help the Wolverines pull off the upset?

Below, we'll break down our Indiana vs. Michigan prediction and picks for Saturday's Week 8 college football game, including the winner, spread, over/under, and player projections for PrizePicks.

Make your Indiana vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks now!

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#6 Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, October 24

Indiana enters Saturday's game as a 7.5-point favorite against Michigan, returning a 1.31x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for Indiana vs. Michigan on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Indiana vs. Michigan prediction on the spread or over/under now.

Indiana has been one of the country's most efficient teams this season, averaging 36.6 points and 449.3 total yards per game. The Hoosiers have been particularly effective through the air, with Hoover throwing for 1,660 yards and 18 TDs without an INT through seven games.

He's completing 63.9% of his passes and averaging 237.1 passing yards per contest, while WR Charlie Becker has emerged as a major downfield threat with 694 receiving yards. Indiana also has a productive ground game, averaging 200.1 rushing YPG, giving the offense multiple ways to attack opposing defenses.

The Hoosiers' defense has been just as impressive. Indiana is allowing only 12.9 points and 270.4 total YPG, including a remarkable 75.4 rushing yards per contest. Opponents average just 2.3 yards per carry, making it hard to establish the run and control the clock.

Michigan's defense is plenty good enough to keep this game competitive, but the offense remains a significant concern. The Wolverines are averaging 22.7 PPG and 313.3 YPG. QB Tommy Carr is expected to take over after Bryce Underwood struggled, including a 2-INT performance against Penn State.

Carr completed 5 of 7 passes for 47 yards in that game, but Saturday will represent a much bigger test against Indiana's defense

The Wolverines do have a path to keeping this game close. They rushed for 211 yards against Penn State, with RB Savion Hiter recording 78 yards and Jordan Marshall adding 49. Michigan also has the advantage of playing at home, where its defense has generally been more reliable.

However, Indiana's ability to stop the run could force Michigan to rely on an inexperienced QB, and that's a difficult position to be in against one of the nation's better defensive units.

Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction on Spread – 10/24/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Indiana vs. Michigan pick against the spread for Saturday, October 24.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from College Football Ratings, Game on Paper, or PFF.

• Michigan’s defense is built to keep this close. The Wolverines rank eighth nationally in defensive EPA/play at -0.106 and 10th in opponent success rate at just 34.1%. They also rank third in points allowed per scoring opportunity, giving them a chance to limit Indiana’s scoring even when the Hoosiers move the ball.
• The Wolverines have been reliable defensively all season. Michigan is allowing only 16.2 PPG and hasn’t surrendered more than 20 points in any game.
• Advanced statistics show Michigan isn’t that far behind Indiana. The Hoosiers rank 11th in net EPA/play (+0.23); Michigan is 12th (+0.21). The Hoosiers rank 11th in net EPA/drive (+1.27); Michigan ranks 13th (+1.20).
• With the total sitting at just 42.5, this projects as a lower-scoring Big Ten game rather than a shootout. Home dogs in low-total games have been a favorite trend of mine over the years.
• Michigan’s offense only needs to do enough. Underwood often stalled drives with turnovers (6 INTs and 6 fumbles); Carr had no turnover-worthy plays against Penn State.

Lock in your Indiana vs. Michigan prediction on PrizePicks before Saturday's game.

Indiana vs. Michigan Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/24/26

Here are two Indiana vs. Michigan player projections to consider for Saturday's Big Ten showdown. Today's top player picks for PrizePicks focus on QBs Josh Hoover and Tommy Carr.

Indiana QB Josh Hoover vs. Michigan: 216.5 Pass Yards

• Hoover is coming off a physically concerning performance against Ohio State. He appeared to injure his throwing arm after landing on his right elbow, briefly left the game, and was seen wincing after returning. He finished with 296 passing yards, but he completed only 20 of 40 pass attempts.
• Michigan’s defense is as difficult a matchup as he could ask for. The Wolverines rank seventh nationally in EPA/pass (-0.16) and ninth nationally in defensive success rate (37.9%).
• The game script could also work against Hoover. Indiana is favored by 7.5 points, and if its defense limits Michigan’s offense, the Hoosiers could lean more heavily on the rushing attack while protecting a lead.
• Given the two elite defenses and defensive efficiency, as well as the potential lingering effects of his arm scare and a game script that could favor the run, Hoover could face an uphill battle.

Add Josh Hoover + Indiana to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Michigan QB Tommy Carr vs. Indiana: 144.5 Pass Yards

• Indiana’s defense has been excellent, but it's operated as a pass funnel. The Hoosers rank 29th in EPA/rush (-0.08) but 65th in EPA/pass (0.06).
• The Hoosiers' defense is seventh in success rate against the run (36.1%) but 41st against the pass (41.2%).
• Given the aforementioned 2.3 YPC mark against Indiana, Michigan may throw more often to avoid running into this defense's strength over and over.
• Should the Wolverines be trailing late, that could also drive up Carr's yardage total on Saturday afternoon.
• This is far from an easy matchup, but with a projection of just 144.5 yards, one explosive throw could put Carr well above pace.

Add Tommy Carr + Michigan to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Big Ten football takes center stage Saturday afternoon as the Hoosiers face the Wolverines. Can Hoover lead Indiana to a statement victory with another efficient performance, or will Michigan's defense propel Carr and the Wolverines?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Indiana vs. Michigan picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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