Heat vs. Warriors is set for tipoff at 10:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 5, with the Warriors being 7.5-point favorites for the spread, via PrizePicks.
This is a tough spot for the Heat, who pulled out a 117-116 overtime win over the Clippers on Wednesday. The Warriors are in a better rest situation, considering that they haven’t played since Monday.
Below, we’ll break down our Heat vs. Warriors prediction and NBA picks for Thursday, November 5, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, November 5
The Warriors enter Thursday’s game as a 7.5-point home favorite against the Heat, via PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for the Heat vs. Warriors game. PrizePicks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Heat vs. Warriors prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
It will be important to monitor for possible rest days for some of the Heat’s best players. Four of their five starters played at least 35 minutes against the Clippers. That includes PF Giannis Antetokounmpo and C Bam Adebayo, who each logged 41 minutes.
The Warriors are playing shorthanded with PF Kristaps Porzingis (illness), SF Jimmy Butler (knee) and SF Moses Moody (knee) all out. Warriors PF Gui Santos (knee) is also out for his second straight game. Even with all their injuries, the Warriors enter this matchup with five straight wins, and the last three all came at home.
Heat vs. Warriors Prediction on Spread – Thursday, November 5
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Heat vs. Warriors prediction on the over/under for Thursday, November 5.
- The duo of Giannis and Adebayo up front was supposed to make it difficult for opponents to score against Miami. However, the team allows 122.9 points per game. Per NBA.com, the Heat have the fifth-worst defensive rating (117.7) in the league.
- The Warriors have their own defensive issues, ranking 22nd in defensive rating (114.8).
- The Heat like to push the pace. After finishing first in pace of play (104.22) last season, they are fourth in the category this year (103.22).
- Not only does Miami enjoy playing fast, but it is also an efficient team from the field. Its 47.2% field goal percentage ranks ninth in the NBA.
- The Heat allow the highest 3-point shooting percentage (40.5%) in the league, which could be a recipe for disaster in a matchup against Warriors PG Stephen Curry. The star point guard has nailed 19 3-pointers over his last three games.
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Heat vs. Warriors Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/5/26
Here are top Heat vs. Warriors picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, November 5. NBA picks for PrizePicks include F Yaxel Lendeborg and SG Brandin Podziemski.
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Warriors F Yaxel Lendeborg vs. Heat: 22.5 Pts + Asts
- The Warriors have leaned heavily on their rookie, immediately making Lendeborg a starter. He’s not a token starter, either, logging 31.9 minutes a game.
- With Golden State shorthanded, Lendeborg is third on the team in usage rate at 26.7%. The players ahead of him are Curry (35.0%) and PG Brandon Williams (30.5%), who only plays 17.3 minutes a game while mostly coming off the bench.
- Not only is the 24-year-old wing putting up a lot of shots, but he has been efficient from the field. Yaxel is shooting 50.0%, including 40.0% from behind the arc.
- Lendeborg is not just a scorer, posting at least 5 assists in five of his eight games. That has helped him combine for at least 23 points and assists five times.
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Warriors SG Brandin Podziemski vs. Heat: 20.5 Pts + Asts
- On the heels of playing 28.5 minutes per outing last season, Podziemski is up to 33.5 minutes a night during the current campaign.
- After sitting out two of the first three games because of injury, the fourth-year guard has combined for at least 22 points and assists in four of his last five contests.
- With the Heat playing at such a fast pace and struggling on the defensive end, they permit the most assists per game (29.9) in the NBA.
- For his career, Podziemski shoots 46.2% from the field and 39.0% from 3-point land at home. On the road, he shoots just 44.3% from the field and 35.6% from deep.
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The Heat are in a tough spot, playing the second game of a back-to-back set when they face the Warriors on the road Thursday. Neither team has played well on the defensive end, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair.
Lendeborg and Podziemski find themselves in a favorable position to continue their hot starts with regard to points and assists.
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